diff --git a/transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/index.html b/transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/index.html index d37dc3c6..1f379eb0 100644 --- a/transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/index.html +++ b/transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/index.html @@ -1 +1 @@ -An Informal Meta-Analysis of Estradiol Curves with Injectable Estradiol Preparations - Transfeminine Science Link

An Informal Meta-Analysis of Estradiol Curves with Injectable Estradiol Preparations

By Aly | First published July 16, 2021 | Last modified June 27, 2024

Abstract / TL;DR

Injectable estradiol preparations such as estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate in oil are frequently used as estrogens in transfeminine hormone therapy. However, there is little characterization of these preparations in transfeminine people and dosing recommendations by transgender health guidelines appear to be based on expert opinion rather than on clinical data. To help shed light on the properties of injectable estradiol and to better inform dosing considerations in transfeminine people, an informal meta-analysis of available clinical data on estradiol concentration–time curves with major injectable estradiol formulations was conducted. The included preparations were injectable estradiol benzoate in oil, estradiol valerate in oil, estradiol cypionate both in oil and as a suspension, estradiol enanthate in oil, estradiol undecylate in oil, and polyestradiol phosphate. The literature was searched for clinical concentration–time data with these injectable estradiol esters and these data were collected and analyzed. Meta-analysis consisted of data for each injectable estradiol preparation being processed and fit with pharmacokinetic models. Selected pharmacokinetic parameters were additionally determined and reported. The results of this work were discussed with regard to characteristics of injectable estradiol preparations like curve shapes, durations, estrogenic exposure, and variability between people and studies. Recommendations for injectable estradiol preparations by transgender health guidelines were also explored in light of the present results. Current guidelines recommend doses of these preparations that appear to be highly excessive with injection intervals that are too widely spaced. Based on the findings of the present meta-analysis, recommendations by guidelines should be reassessed. Finally, the fitted curves in this work were incorporated into an interactive web-based injectable estradiol simulator intended for use by transfeminine people and their medical providers to help guide therapeutic decisions.

Introduction

Estradiol is the main estrogen used in transfeminine hormone therapy and is available in a variety of different forms for use by different routes of administration. The most commonly employed forms are oral, sublingual, transdermal, and injectable preparations. Injectable estradiol preparations have been discontinued in many countries and hence are unavailable for use in transfeminine hormone therapy in many parts of the world, for instance in most of Europe (Glintborg et al., 2021). However, they are still used by many transfeminine people particularly in the United States and in the do-it-yourself (DIY) community. The most commonly used forms include estradiol valerate, estradiol cypionate, and estradiol enanthate all in oil. Injectable estradiol preparations have certain advantages over other estradiol forms that make them a popular choice for use in transfeminine hormone therapy. These include often lower cost, capacity to easily achieve higher estradiol levels that can be useful for testosterone suppression, less frequent administration, and theoretically reduced health risks relative to oral estradiol at equivalent doses due to the lack of the first pass with this route (Aly, 2020). The higher estradiol levels with injections are particularly useful for estradiol monotherapy, in which an antiandrogen is not used.

Clinically used injectable estradiol preparations are formulated not as estradiol but as estradiol esters. When injected into muscle or fat in oil solutions or crystalline aqueous suspensions, these estradiol esters form depots at the injection site from which they are slowly released. Subsequent to release, estradiol esters are rapidly metabolized into estradiol and hence act as prodrugs. When estradiol itself is given by intramuscular injection in an aqueous solution or oil solution, it is rapidly absorbed and has a very short duration. Due to having lipophilic esters, most clinically used injectable estradiol esters are more fat-soluble than estradiol (as measured by oil–water partition coefficient (P)) (Table). When these esters are administered as oil solutions by intramuscular or subcutaneous injection, their increased lipophilicity causes them to be released from the injection-site depot more slowly than estradiol and to therefore have longer durations. In the case of fatty acid esters, the longer the chain length of the ester—as in e.g. estradiol valerate (5 carbons) vs. estradiol enanthate (7 carbons) vs. estradiol undecylate (10 carbons)—the greater the fat solubility, the slower the rate of release from the depot, and the longer the time to peak levels and duration (Edkins, 1959; Sinkula, 1978; Chien, 1981; Kuhl, 2005; Kalicharan, 2017; Vhora et al., 2019). The durations of both injectable oil solutions and aqueous suspensions depend on the ester and its particular physicochemical properties, but the characteristics of these preparations are different and they work in distinct ways to produce their depot effects (Enever et al., 1983; Aly, 2019). The durations of oil solutions are dependent on the lipophilicity of the ester as well as oil vehicle, whereas the durations of aqueous suspensions depend on the properties of the ester crystal lattice as well as crystal sizes (Chien, 1981; Enever et al., 1983; Aly, 2019). The polymeric estradiol ester polyestradiol phosphate is more hydrophilic (water-soluble) than estradiol and works differently than other injectable estradiol preparations. Ιt is composed of many estradiol molecules linked together via phosphate esters (on average 13 molecules of estradiol per one molecule of polyestradiol phosphate) and has a prolonged duration due to slow cleavage into estradiol following injection. Estradiol esters are able to substantially prolong the duration of estradiol when used as injectables and these preparations have durations ranging from days to months depending on the ester and how it is formulated (Table).

There is very little in the way of research and review on the pharmacokinetics of injectable estradiol preparations in the transgender health literature. Transgender hormone therapy guidelines presently offer only brief descriptions and dosing recommendations that appear to be based mainly on expert opinion for this form of estradiol (e.g., Deutsch, 2016a; Hembree et al., 2017). Many studies assessing the pharmacokinetics and concentration–time profiles of injectable estradiol preparations have been published but are largely confined to cisgender women and men rather than transgender people. These studies are scattered throughout the literature and have not been comprehensively reviewed or analyzed. Some review material exists on the pharmacokinetics of injectable estradiol preparations for use in hormonal birth control and menopausal hormone therapy in cisgender women (e.g., Düsterberg & Nishino, 1982; Kuhl, 1986; Kuhl, 1990; Garza-Flores, 1994; Kuhl, 2005) and androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer in cisgender men (e.g., Gunnarsson & Norlén, 1988). However, these publications discuss only small selections of the available research. Data on repeated administration of injectable estradiol preparations are more rare but have also been published (e.g., Gooren et al., 1984 [Graph]; various others). Multi-dose simulation has been done previously for polyestradiol phosphate (Henriksson et al., 1999; Johansson & Gunnarsson, 2000). However, it has not been explored for other injectable estradiol preparations to date. In contrast to injectable estradiol, excellent review literature and simulation exists for injectable testosterone preparations (e.g., Behre, Oberpenning, & Nieschlag, 1990; Behre & Nieschlag, 1998; Behre et al., 2004; Nieschlag & Behre, 2010; Nieschlag & Behre, 2012).

In order to aid understanding of concentration–time profiles with injectable estradiol preparations, I’ve developed an interactive web-based injectable estradiol simulator for transfeminine people and their medical providers. During work on this simulator, it became apparent that there is substantial variability in estradiol levels and curve shapes between different studies even with the same injectable estradiol ester. The injectable estradiol simulator was originally designed to simulate curves from only a single well-known pharmacokinetic study that directly compared estradiol benzoate, estradiol valerate, and estradiol cypionate in oil (Oriowo et al., 1980 [Graph]). However, due to the considerable differences in estradiol levels and curves across studies, it was decided that relying on only one study for such a project would be untenable. Instead, for the simulations to be reasonably accurate to the available data, many studies would need to be incorporated. Including additional studies would also allow for inclusion of other injectable estradiol esters in the simulator. As a result, the present work—an informal meta-analysis of estradiol curves with injectable estradiol formulations—was conducted for the simulator project.

Methods

A literature search was performed to identify studies reporting clinical estradiol concentration–time data with major injectable estradiol formulations (Table 1). All of these preparations have been used in transfeminine hormone therapy at one time or another in different parts of the world, although only estradiol valerate in oil and estradiol cypionate in oil are widely used today. Some of the injectable preparations included have notably been discontinued. Acceptable data for the search included mean and individual estradiol concentration data and Cmax estradiol levels (mean peak estradiol levels of individual subjects at time Tmax). Databases like PubMed, Google Scholar, and WorldCat were searched using relevant keywords (e.g., estradiol ester names and variations thereof as well as major brand names). Publications with relevant information were catalogued for data collection. Only single-dose data and multi-dose data that allowed estradiol levels to return to baseline between doses (as in e.g. repeated once-monthly combined injectable contraceptives) were included. Studies were included regardless of the hypothalamic–pituitary–gonadal axis (HPG axis) status of the participants. The study selection criteria aimed to maximize data inclusion due to scarcity of data for several preparations. If however there were many studies for a specific preparation, studies with only 1 or 2 subjects were generally skipped due to the limited additional value that they would provide. When data were in figures in papers—as was generally the case—they were extracted from the graphs using WebPlotDigitizer.

Table 1: Major injectable estradiol formulations (ordered roughly from shortest- to longest-acting):

Estradiol esterAbbr.FormMajor brand names
Estradiol benzoateEBOil solutionProgynon-B
Estradiol valerateEVOil solutionDelestrogen, Mesigyna,a Progynon Depot
Estradiol cypionateECOil solutionDepo-Estradiol
  Aqueous suspensionbCyclofem,a Lunellea
Estradiol enanthateEEnOil solutionPerlutal,a Topasela
Estradiol undecylatecEUOil solutionDelestrec, Progynon Depot 100
Polyestradiol phosphatecPEPAqueous solutionEstradurin

a As combined injectable contraceptives also including a progestin (norethisterone enanthate (NETE), medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA), or dihydroxyprogesterone acetophenide (DHPA)). b Microcrystalline particle size. c No longer marketed.

Following their collection, data were processed, aggregated, and modeled. Data were adjusted for endogenous estradiol production and were normalized by dose. Adjustment for endogenous estradiol production was generally done via subtraction of baseline estradiol levels. In a number of cases however, subtraction of trough estradiol levels or of estradiol levels from a control group was required instead. Data were also weighted by sample size. In a handful of instances, certain missing information (e.g., time to peak levels, baseline levels, subject body weights) was filled in with reasonable assumptions to help maximize data inclusion. Data were processed in the form of mean estradiol curve data rather than individual-subject data (except for rare n=1 studies). The combined processed data from all studies for each injectable estradiol preparation were fit via least squares regression to one-, two-, and three-compartment pharmacokinetic models with first-order absorption and elimination that were obtained from the literature and other sources (e.g., Colburn, 1981; Wagner, 1993; Fisher & Shafer, 2007; Lixoft, 2008; Abuhelwa, Foster, & Upton, 2015; Certara, 2020). These models fit most curves from individual studies very well. Fitting the combined curve fits of all individual studies (as opposed to fitting all of the combined processed data directly) was additionally evaluated for each injectable estradiol preparation, and if it was feasible for the preparation and allowed for better fitting results, was employed instead. Fitting directly to the combined processed data has the effect of weighting individual studies by quantity of time points, whereas fitting the combined curve fits of studies eliminates this. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to help guide model selection for fitting of the preparations. Curve fitting was performed using the Python library Lmfit with the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. Cmax concentrations are a different form of data than mean curve estradiol concentration–time data, and for this reason, were not included in the fitting unless data were very limited for a given injectable estradiol preparation. Outlying data were also excluded from fitting in a number of instances and this allowed for improved curve fits with more uniform area-under-the-curve levels. The main criterion used for excluding curves was fit area-under-the-curve levels that deviated considerably from what was typical for the injectable estradiol preparations (generally less than about 50% of the average or greater than about 150% of the average).

A selection of pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated for each injectable estradiol preparation using the single-dose fit curves and compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses. These parameters included maximal or peak concentrations of estradiol after a single dose scaled to 5 mg (Cmax), time to maximal concentrations of estradiol after a single dose (Tmax), total area-under-the-curve concentrations of estradiol after a single dose (AUC0–∞), terminal elimination half-life after a single dose (t1/2), and the terminal 90% life after a single dose (t90%) (calculated as t1/2 × 3.322). In addition, selected pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated for simulated repeated administration of each injectable preparation at steady state with a dose and dose interval of 5 mg once every 7 days using the single-dose fit curves and compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses. These parameters included time to peak concentrations of estradiol (Tmax), peak and trough concentrations of estradiol (Cmax and Cmin, respectively), peak–trough difference (PTD; Cmax – Cmin), peak–trough ratio (PTR; Cmax ÷ Cmin), and integrated mean concentrations of estradiol (Cavg). Simulation of repeated administration was performed by stacking estradiol levels for multiple injections. Cmax and Tmax were defined and calculated in general as peak estradiol level and time to peak level of the fit mean curve as opposed to the mean peak level and mean time to peak level of individual subjects. This is because the latter would not be possible to compute as most studies reported only estradiol mean curve data. Pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated using relevant pharmacokinetic equations and, as a sanity check, were compared against those computed by PKSolver, a Microsoft Excel pharmacokinetics add-in program (Zhang et al., 2010).

Results

The figures in the subsequent sections show the original data from studies adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels and normalized to a common dose as well as the curve fits to the data (or alternatively the curve fits of the fits of the data depending on the preparation) for the included injectable estradiol preparations. Estradiol benzoate, estradiol cypionate in oil, and estradiol cypionate suspension were fit to the fits of all individual studies for these preparations, whereas estradiol enanthate, estradiol undecylate, and polyestradiol phosphate were fit directly to the combined processed data for these esters. In the case of estradiol valerate, the two fitting approaches gave nearly identical curves, and so fitting the combined processed original data was done for simplicity for this preparation. Cmax studies were excluded in the fitting for all preparations except estradiol enanthate, for which available estradiol concentration–time data were otherwise very limited. The data for the injectable estradiol preparations were generally fit best by a three-compartment pharmacokinetic model (Desmos). As a result, and for consistency, this model was used in the fitting of all preparations.

Estradiol Benzoate

Injectable estradiol benzoate has been extensively used in the past in scientific research, most notably in studies elucidating the function and dynamics of the HPG axis. One such use of estradiol benzoate has been the estrogen provocation test, a diagnostic test of HPG axis function. Due to its use in research, substantial estradiol concentration–time data with injectable estradiol benzoate exists. A total of 26 publications and concentration–time data for 355 individual injections were identified (Table 2).

Table 2: Studies of injectable estradiol benzoate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
G753Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women27.6 mgGeppert (1975); Leyendecker et al. (1975)
K7510Normal premenopausal women~0.15 mgKeye & Jaffe (1975)
S75a10Amenorrheic premenopausal women1 mgShaw et al. (1975)
S75b15Normal premenopausal women0.5 mgShaw, Butt, & London (1975)
S75b25Normal premenopausal women1.5 mgShaw, Butt, & London (1975)
S75b35Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgShaw, Butt, & London (1975)
L763Normal premenopausal women3 mgLeyendecker et al. (1976)
C7822Infertile anovulatory premenopausal women1 mgCanales et al. (1978)
S786Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgShaw (1978)
T7819Premenopausal women with hyperprolactinemia (n=12) and after prolactin normalization (n=7) (2 injections per subject for 7 of 12 subjects)1 mgTravaglini et al. (1978)
T7918Premenopausal women with hyperprolactinemia (n=9) given estradiol benzoate alone and then in combination with progesterone (2 injections per subject)1 mgTravaglini et al. (1979)
O8010Premenopausal women on a combined birth control pill5 mgOriowo et al. (1980)
C8114Lactating postpartum women (n=7) (2 injections per subject)3 mgCanales et al. (1981)
W8119Premenopausal women with prolactinomas and hyperprolactinemia1 mgWhite et al. (1981)
S822Men with XX male syndrome5 mgSchweikert et al. (1982)
B8310Normal premenopausal women (n=5) not on and then on danazol (2 injections per subject)5 mgBraun, Wildt, & Leyendecker (1983)
K8422Gonadectomized premenopausal women on oral combined hormone therapy1 mgKemeter et al. (1984)
V847Premenopausal women with alcoholism and cirrhosis or fatty liver disease5 mgVälimäki et al. (1984)
G8510Transfeminine people not on hormone therapy (n=5) and normal men (n=5)2 mgGoodman et al. (1985)
A8618Infertile ovulatory premenopausal women with transient hyperprolactinemia (n=9) and normal premenopausal women (n=9)~5 mgAisaka et al. (1986)
C8627Perimenopausal women with dysfunctional uterine bleeding2 mgCano et al. (1986)
M875Normal premenopausal women10 mgMessinis & Templeton (1987a); Messinis & Templeton (1987b)
S8711Normal premenopausal women1 mgSumioki (1987)
B8920Infertile ovulatory premenopausal women (n=10) not on and then on a GnRH agonist (2 injections per subject)2 mgBider et al. (1989)
V9349Premenopausal women on a GnRH agonist with gynecological disorders (n=15) or undergoing fertility treatment (n=6) (2–3 injections per subject)2.5 mgVizziello et al. (1993)
E0625Premenopausal women with premenstrual mood disturbances (n=13) and normal premenopausal women (n=12)~2.5 mgEriksson et al. (2006)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

A number of studies were excluded from fitting due to much higher or lower area-under-the-curve levels than average. A couple of studies were omitted from the meta-analysis as they only reported total estrogen levels rather than estradiol levels with estradiol benzoate (Akande, 1974; Weiss, Nachtigall, & Ganguly, 1976). Two studies were omitted due partly to being very old and using very early and inaccurate blood tests (Varangot & Cedard, 1957; Ittrich & Pots, 1965 [Graph]). The processed original data and fit of fits curve for estradiol benzoate are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit of fit curves (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol benzoate in oil solution over a period of 7 days. Each curve was adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 5 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. Following this, the combined fit curves of the individual studies were fit using the same pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol benzoate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Valerate

Studies with curve data on injectable estradiol valerate come from its use in menopausal hormone therapy and other therapeutic indications for estrogens, its use in combined injectable contraceptives, and use in scientific research. A total of 28 publications and concentration–time data for 309 individual injections were identified for estradiol valerate (Table 3).

Table 3: Studies of injectable estradiol valerate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
S717512Premenopausal women with menstrual migraine (n=10) and amenorrheic/postmenopausal women with history of menstrual migraine (n=2)5⁠–⁠20 mgSomerville (1971); Somerville (1972a); Somerville (1972b); Somerville (1972c); Somerville (1975)
G753Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women26.2 mgGeppert (1975); Leyendecker et al. (1975)
V75a4Unknown/not described10 mgVermeulen (1975)
V75b2Unknown/not described4 mgVermeulen (1975)
O809Premenopausal women on a combined birth control pill5 mgOriowo et al. (1980)
R806Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women10 mgRauramo et al. (1980); Rauramo, Punnonen, & Grönroos (1981)
B8210Normal premenopausal women with bromocriptine administration20 mgBlackwell, Boots, & Potter (1982)
D833Normal postmenopausal women4 mgDüsterberg, & Wendt (1983)
A857Normal premenopausal women5 mgAedo et al. (1985)
D852Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women4 mgDüsterberg & Nishino (1982); Düsterberg, Schmidt-Gollwitzer, & Hümpel (1985)
R877Normal young men10 mgReimann et al. (1987)
S87a8Normal premenopausal women5 mgSang et al. (1987)
S87b8Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgSang et al. (1987)
S87c20Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women10 mgSherwin et al. (1987); Sherwin (1988)
G8854Normally cycling transmasculine people not on hormone therapy (n=31), transfeminine people not on hormone therapy (n=14), and gonadally intact transfeminine people on oral estrogen therapy (n=9)10 mgGoh & Ratnam (1988)
G9012Normally cycling transmasculine people not on hormone therapy10 mgGoh & Ratnam (1990)
G94a8Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
G94c5Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
J949Normal young men10 mgJilma et al. (1994)
G985Men with Klinfelter’s syndrome10 mgGoh & Lee (1998)
G0217Normal postmenopausal women5 mgGöretzlehner et al. (2002)
K0610Normal menopausal women2 mgKerdelhué et al. (2006)
V1132Normal young men5 mgValle Alvarez (2011)
S1248Normal postmenopausal women (n=24) given Estradiol-Depot 10 mg and then Progynon Depot-10 (2 injections per subject)10 mgSchug, Donath, & Blume (2012)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

A few of these studies were excluded from fitting due generally to much higher or lower area-under-the-curve levels than average or due to being Cmax data. One study was omitted as it only reported estrone levels rather than estradiol levels (Ibrahim, 1996). Another study was not included due to being in pregnant women with concomitant pregnancy termination (Garner & Armstrong, 1977). One last study was omitted due partly to being very old and using very early and inaccurate blood tests (Ittrich & Pots, 1965 [Graph]). The processed original data and fit curve for estradiol valerate are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol valerate in oil solution over a period of 30 days. Curves were adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 10 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. Fitting of the combined fits of individual studies for this preparation was explored but gave a nearly identical overall curve, so the overall fit curve for the combined processed original data was used for simplicity for this preparation. The original data from the studies for estradiol valerate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Cypionate Oil

Estradiol cypionate in oil is used in menopausal hormone therapy and for other estrogen indications. However, its use has been more limited relative to other injectable estradiol preparations, like estradiol valerate. Only a handful of studies with relevant data were identified for estradiol cypionate in oil. This included 4 publications and estradiol concentration–time data for 49 individual injections (Table 4).

Table 4: Studies of injectable estradiol cypionate in oil (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
R736Hypogonadal adolescent girls1⁠–⁠2 mgRosenfield et al. (1973); Rosenfield & Fang (1974)
B80~5Normal premenopausal women10 mgBuckman et al. (1980)
O8010Premenopausal women on a combined birth control pill5 mgOriowo et al. (1980)
L9628Postmenopausal women with history of hormonal migraine (n=16) and without (n=12) initially on oral estrogen therapy (discontinued upon injection)5 mgLichten et al. (1996)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

No curves were excluded from fitting in the case of this preparation. The processed original data and fit of fit curves for estradiol cypionate in oil are shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit of fit curves (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol cypionate in oil solution over a period of 30 days. Each curve was adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 5 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. Following this, the combined fit curves of the individual studies were fit using the same pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol cypionate in oil are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Cypionate Suspension

Estradiol cypionate suspension has been used exclusively in combined injectable contraceptives. For this reason, many relatively high quality pharmacokinetic studies with this injectable preparation have been conducted. A total of 9 publications and estradiol concentration–time data for 131 individual injections were identified for estradiol cypionate suspension (Table 5).

Table 5: Studies of injectable estradiol cypionate suspension (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
F8211Normal premenopausal women5 mgFotherby et al. (1982)
A858Normal premenopausal women5 mgAedo et al. (1985)
G87a7Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87b8Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87c7Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87d8Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87e8Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87f6Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
Z989Normal premenopausal women5 mgZhou et al. (1998)
R9914Healthy surgically sterile premenopausal women5 mgRahimy & Ryan (1999); Rahimy, Ryan, & Hopkins (1999)
S11a15Normal premenopausal women5 mgSierra-Ramírez et al. (2011)
S11bb15Normal premenopausal women5 mgSierra-Ramírez et al. (2011)
T1315Normal premenopausal women5 mgThurman et al. (2013)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects. b By subcutaneous injection rather than intramuscular injection.

One of these studies used subcutaneous injection instead of the usual intramuscular injection but the resulting curve was very similar to the curve for intramuscular injection in the same study (Sierra-Ramírez et al., 2011 [Graph]). Several Cmax studies were excluded from fitting for this preparation. One pharmacokinetic study only measured estradiol cypionate levels rather than estradiol levels and hence was not included (Martins et al., 2019 [Graph]). The processed original data and fit of fit curves for estradiol cypionate suspension are shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit of fits curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular (or in one case subcutaneous) injection of a microcrystalline aqueous suspension of estradiol cypionate over a period of 30 days. Each curve was adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 5 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. Following this, the combined fit curves of the individual studies were fit using the same pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol cypionate suspension are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Enanthate

Estradiol enanthate has been used exclusively in combined injectable contraceptives. Several pharmacokinetic studies have been conducted with it because of this. A total of 7 publications and concentration–time data for 270 individual injections were identified for estradiol enanthate (Table 6).

Table 6: Studies of injectable estradiol enanthate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
R86a1Normal premenopausal woman5 mgRecio et al. (1986)
R86b1Normal premenopausal woman10 mgRecio et al. (1986)
W863Normal postmenopausal women10 mgWiemeyer et al. (1986); Wiemeyer et al. (1987)
S8814Normal premenopausal women10 mgSchiavon et al. (1988)
G8910Normal premenopausal women10 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1989)
G94a9Normal premenopausal women10 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
G94b9Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
G94c7Normal premenopausal women10 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
M95216Normal premenopausal women10 mgMartinez (1995)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

Of the available data, 216 of the injections were from a single study and mainly included only Cmax levels. Wiemeyer et al. (1986) was excluded from fitting due to having unusually high area-under-the-curve levels with a small sample size (n=3). Because of the scarcity of estradiol concentration–time data available for estradiol enanthate, Cmax studies were included in the fitting for this preparation. The processed original data and fit curve for estradiol enanthate are shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol enanthate in oil solution over a period of 30 days. Curves were adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 10 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol enanthate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Undecylate

Estradiol undecylate was formerly used in the treatment of prostate cancer and in menopausal hormone therapy as well as for other estrogen therapeutic indications. However, it was discontinued many years ago and is no longer used today. Nonetheless, estradiol undecylate is of significant historical interest as an injectable estradiol preparation. A total of 4 publications and estradiol concentration–time data for 7 individual injections were identified for estradiol undecylate (Table 7).

Table 7: Studies of injectable estradiol undecylate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
G753Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women32.3 mgGeppert (1975)/Leyendecker et al. (1975) [Graph]
V754Unknown/not described100 mgVermeulen (1975)/Vermeulen (1977) [Graph]

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

Unfortunately, the identified data were of very low quality, with small sample sizes and considerable variations in estradiol levels. Moreover, estradiol undecylate is a very long-acting injectable estradiol ester with a duration measured in months, and the follow up in these studies only went to about 2 weeks post-injection. For these reasons, it was not possible to fit the data for estradiol undecylate in a reasonably accurate way—as suggested by area-under-the-curve estradiol levels that were only around one-third those of the other non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters. Limited multi-dose hormone concentration–time data also exist for estradiol undecylate, but these data could not be incorporated (Jacobi & Altwein, 1979 [Graph]; Jacobi et al., 1980 [Graph]; Derra, 1981 [Graph]). The processed original data and fit curve for estradiol undecylate are shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol undecylate in oil solution over a period of 90 days. Curves were adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 50 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol undecylate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Polyestradiol Phosphate

Polyestradiol phosphate has been used primarily in the treatment of prostate cancer but has also been used for estrogen therapeutic indications like treatment of breast cancer and menopausal hormone therapy. While this injectable estradiol preparation has been used widely in the past, it appears to have recently been discontinued. All of the identified studies with estradiol concentration–time data on polyestradiol phosphate were in men with prostate cancer. A total of 11 publications and concentration–time data for 114 individual injections were identified for polyestradiol phosphate (Table 8).

Table 8: Studies of injectable polyestradiol phosphate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
J7616Men with prostate cancer160 mgJönsson (1976)
L7910Men with prostate cancer80 mgLeinonen et al. (1979)
L808Men with prostate cancer80 mgLeinonen (1980)
J824Men with prostate cancer80 mgJacobi (1982)
N87a3Men with prostate cancer80 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87b3Men with prostate cancer160 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87c3Men with prostate cancer240 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87d4Men with prostate cancer80 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87e4Men with prostate cancer160 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87f4Men with prostate cancer240 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
S88a9Men with prostate cancer160 mgStege et al. (1988); Stege et al. (1989)
S88b9Men with prostate cancer240 mgStege et al. (1988); Stege et al. (1989)
S88c9Men with prostate cancer320 mgStege et al. (1988); Stege et al. (1989)
S9611Men with prostate cancer320 mgStege et al. (1996)
H9917Men with prostate cancer240 mgHenriksson et al. (1999); Johansson & Gunnarsson (2000)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

A few older and strongly outlying studies were excluded from the fitting. The processed original data and fit curve for polyestradiol phosphate are shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of an aqueous solution of polyestradiol phosphate over a period of 90 days. The graph was clipped to maximum estradiol levels of 600 pg/mL (~2,200 pmol/L) for better viewability. Curves were adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 160 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for polyestradiol phosphate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Other Injectable Estradiol Preparations

A number of clinical studies with estradiol concentration–time data for other injectable estradiol preparations were also identified during literature search:

These preparations were not included in the present meta-analysis due to their relative obscurity and the limited data available for them. In addition, there were concerns about fitting the used pharmacokinetic models to the formulations with multiple estradiol components and to the microsphere formulations.

No estradiol concentration–time data were identified for certain other injectable estradiol forms of interest, like unesterified estradiol in aqueous solution, estradiol benzoate as a microcrystalline aqueous suspension (Agofollin Depot; Ovocyclin M), or estradiol benzoate butyrate/dihydroxyprogesterone acetophenide in oil (Redimen, Soluna, Unijab) (another lesser-known combined injectable contraceptive).

All Injectable Estradiol Preparations Together

Figure 8 shows the curve fits for all of the injectable estradiol preparations scaled to a single dose of 5 mg (or equivalent) together in the same figure. The dose for polyestradiol phosphate was scaled to be about 6.5 times higher than the other injectable estradiol preparations in order to make it roughly equivalent to them in terms of total estradiol exposure. This was because polyestradiol phosphate was found to produce much lower area-under-the-curve estradiol levels than the other injectable estradiol preparations (see the Discussion section). Estradiol undecylate was not included in Figure 8 as a decent fit curve could not be obtained for it due to the very limited data available for this preparation.

Figure 8: Curve fits of published estradiol concentration–time data with different injectable estradiol preparations by intramuscular injection scaled to equivalent doses and plotted over a period of 20 days in a single combined graph. Polyestradiol phosphate is scaled to a 6.5-fold higher dose that is roughly equivalent to that for the other esters as it gave total estradiol levels that were around 6 or 7 times lower than the other esters at the same dose. An alternative version of this figure without estradiol benzoate and with the x-axis spanning 30 days is also provided (Graph).

Figure 9 shows simulated curves at steady state for repeated administration of all of the injectable estradiol preparations scaled to a dose of 5 mg (or equivalent) once every 7 days. As with the previous figure, the dose for polyestradiol phosphate was scaled to be about 6.5 times higher than the other injectable estradiol preparations and estradiol undecylate was not included in the figure.

Figure 9: Simulated curves at steady state for repeated administration of different injectable estradiol preparations by intramuscular injection scaled to equivalent doses and plotted over three injection cycles. This simulation was based on the fit curves of the published single-dose estradiol concentration–time data reported in this meta-analysis. Polyestradiol phosphate is scaled to a 6.5-fold higher dose that is roughly equivalent to that for the other esters as it gave total estradiol levels that were around 6 or 7 times lower than the other esters at the same dose. An alternative version of this figure without estradiol benzoate is also provided (Graph).

For more simulated estradiol concentration–time curves with repeated injections of these injectable estradiol preparations, please see the accompanying interactive web simulator.

Selected Pharmacokinetic Parameters

The table below shows selected pharmacokinetic parameters for the fit curves of the included injectable estradiol preparations (Table 9). Estradiol undecylate was not included in the table due to the lack of data needed to achieve a decent curve fit for this preparation and the uncertainty of its parameters.

Table 9: Selected pharmacokinetic parameters for estradiol with injectable estradiol preparations following a single 5 mg dose by intramuscular injection:

Estradiol preparationTmax
(d)
Cmax
(pg/mL)
t1/2
(d)
t90%
(d)
AUC0–∞
(pg•d/mL)
Estradiol benzoate in oil0.659711.23.92410
Estradiol valerate in oil2.12953.09.91886
Estradiol cypionate oil4.31556.722.32150
Estradiol cypionate suspension1.22415.116.92096
Estradiol enanthate in oil6.51604.615.12183
Polyestradiol phosphate a18.03428.494.22117

a Scaled instead to a single 32.5 mg injection (6.5 times higher dose than with the other esters).

The table below shows selected pharmacokinetic parameters for simulated curves at steady state with repeated administration of the included injectable estradiol preparations (Table 10). As with the previous table, estradiol undecylate was not included.

Table 10: Selected pharmacokinetic parameters for estradiol with injectable estradiol preparations with simulated repeated administration of 5 mg once every 7 days by intramuscular injection:

Estradiol preparationTmax
(d)
Cmax
(pg/mL)
Cmin
(pg/mL)
Peak–trough
diff. (pg/mL)
Peak–trough
ratio
Cavg
(pg/mL)
Estradiol benzoate in oil0.649902996235344
Estradiol valerate in oil1.93841422422.7269
Estradiol cypionate oil3.1339262771.3307
Estradiol cypionate suspension1.04041892142.1299
Estradiol enanthate in oil4.0329288411.1312
Polyestradiol phosphate a3.230429951.0302

a Scaled instead to repeated injections of 32.5 mg every 7 days (6.5 times higher dose than with the other esters).

Terminal half-life (t1/2) is the time for the concentration of estradiol to decrease by 50% after pseudo-equilibrium of distribution has been reached—not the time required for half of an administered dose of the estradiol ester to be eliminated (Toutain & Bousquet-Mélou, 2004). It is calculated using only the terminal portion of a concentration–time curve, without the absorption or distribution phases influencing it (Toutain & Bousquet-Mélou, 2004). Due to flip–flop kinetics with depot injectables and the very short blood half-life of estradiol (~0.5–2 hours), what is being described by the terminal half-life in the case of depot estradiol injectables is not actually elimination of estradiol from blood but rather is the absorption of estradiol from the injection-site depot (Toutain & Bousquet-Mélou, 2004; Yáñez et al., 2011).

Discussion

Data Quality, Limitations, and Variability Between Studies

The accuracies of the curve fits for the different included injectable estradiol preparations are limited by the available data for these preparations. The quantity and quality of data are variable among these preparations. In some cases, such as with estradiol valerate in oil and estradiol cypionate in suspension, the data are overall quite good. In other instances, such as with estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate in oil, the available data are more limited. There was undersampling of certain parts of the concentration–time curve with some preparations, for instance estradiol benzoate in oil (the early curve), estradiol enanthate in oil (much of the curve), and polyestradiol phosphate (the late curve). In the case of estradiol undecylate in oil, the available data for this preparation weren’t adequate to achieve a decent curve fit at all. The fit curves and calculated pharmacokinetic parameters of the included injectable estradiol preparations should be interpreted with the imperfect data in mind. For example, the curve shapes and pharmacokinetic parameters for the different preparations should not be taken as precise determinations in most cases but instead as rough estimates that would no doubt change with more and better data. Indeed, the fits and pharmacokinetic parameters were often noticeably sensitive to the influences of individual studies. Modeling decisions, such as the choice of pharmacokinetic model, or whether to fit directly to the combined processed data versus to the fits of individual studies, also yielded significantly different curve fits as well as calculated pharmacokinetic parameters.

Due to scarcity of data for several injectable estradiol preparations, the study selection criteria maximized data inclusion in order to allow for better curve fits at the risk of including potentially less reliable data. As examples, studies were included regardless of the status of the HPG axis of the participants, and Cmax data were included in the fitting if data were very limited. In the case of HPG axis state, studies with cycling women may result in greater error due to more variable levels of endogenous estradiol. Moreover, acute high levels of estradiol can induce a surge in luteinizing hormone levels after several days in gonadally intact women, and this may cause a delayed bump in estradiol levels (Wiki). One of the more overt instances of this can be seen in a study of estradiol benzoate in such women (Shaw, 1978 [Graph]). Many if not most of the included studies with estradiol benzoate involved women with intact HPG axes, whereas studies of this sort were uncommon with the other preparations. In the case of Cmax data, these data when Cmax corresponds to the mean of individual peaks are a different type of data than the peak of the mean curve of all individuals. Cmax levels can differ in both magnitude and timing compared to the mean curve peak (e.g., Oriowo et al., 1980 [Graph]; Rahimy, Ryan, & Hopkins, 1999). This is because for instance not all individuals peak at the same time and this variability in time to peak normally serves to dilute peak levels for the mean curve when compared to individual maximal concentrations. However, Cmax levels are in any case generally in the vicinity of the mean curve peak. While Cmax levels were excluded in the fitting for most injectable estradiol preparations, they were included in the case of estradiol enanthate. This was because the available mean and individual estradiol curve data were very limited for this specific preparation, and inclusion of Cmax data allowed for improved fitting in spite of its limitations. Lastly, some of the included data was once-monthly multi-dose, and research with once-monthly estradiol enanthate-containing combined injectable contraceptives has found that the time to peak levels may shift with repeated long-term use (Schiavon et al., 1988; Garza-Flores, 1994).

There was considerable variability between studies in terms of estradiol levels and concentration–time curve shapes with the same injectable estradiol preparation. The reasons for the large variability across studies are not fully clear. In any case, there are many potential factors that may contribute to this variability. These include preparation- and injection-related factors like formulation (e.g., oil vehicle, other components and excipients, concentration, particle size), injection volume, site of injection (e.g., buttocks, thigh, upper arm), injection technique (e.g., force of injection—and resulting depot droplet dimensions), and syringe dead space. They additionally include various subject- and research-related variables like differing blood-testing methodology, differing sample characteristics (e.g., age, weight, gender, ethnicity, physical activity, HPG axis state), and sampling error (Sinkula, 1978; Chien, 1981; Minto et al., 1997; Larsen & Larsen, 2009; Larsen et al., 2009; Florence, 2010; Larsen, Thing, & Larsen, 2012; Kalicharan, 2017). Older studies, which used potentially less accurate blood tests and tended to have smaller numbers of subjects, seemed to particularly add to the variability between studies. These studies may represent less reliable data than more recent research with larger sample sizes. The exclusion criteria helped to remove outliers for the different injectable estradiol preparations however. This meta-analysis does not take into account the potential factors underlying the variability between studies. To do so would be difficult, as in many cases information on these variables is not provided in individual studies and research quantifying their precise influences and relative importances is limited.

It is in any case known from other studies that different oil vehicles are absorbed at different rates from the injection site (Svendsen & Aaes‐Jørgensen, 1979; Schultz et al., 1998; Larsen et al., 2001) and can result in different concentration–time curve shapes (Ballard, 1978 [Excerpt]; Knudsen, Hansen, & Larsen, 1985). This is thought to be due to differences in oil lipophilicity and depot release rates. Viscosity of oils has also been hypothesized to potentially influence rate of depot escape (Schug, Donath, & Blume, 2012). However, research so far has not supported this hypothesis (Larsen & Larsen, 2009; Larsen, Thing, & Larsen, 2012). Oil vehicles can vary with injectable estradiol preparations even for the same estradiol ester. For instance, pharmaceutical estradiol valerate is formulated in sesame oil, castor oil, or sunflower oil depending on the preparation (Table). It is notable however that these three oils have similar lipophilicities (Table). On the other hand, homebrewed injectable estradiol preparations used by DIY transfeminine people often employ medium-chain triglyceride (MCT) oil as the oil vehicle. This oil (in the proprietary form of Viscoleo) has notably been found to be much more rapidly absorbed than conventional oils like sesame oil and castor oil in animals (Svendsen & Aaes‐Jørgensen, 1979; Schultz et al., 1998; Larsen et al., 2001). In addition, although based on very limited data, MCT oil has been found to give spikier and shorter-lasting depot injectable curves in humans (Knudsen, Hansen, & Larsen, 1985). As such, injectable estradiol preparations using MCT oil as the vehicle may have differing and less favorable concentration–time curve shapes than pharmaceutical injectable estradiol products. Other excipients, like benzyl alcohol, as well as factors like injection site and volume, have additionally been found to influence pharmacokinetic properties with depot injectables (Minto et al., 1997; Kalicharan, Schot, & Vromans, 2016). Excipients besides oil vehicle also vary by formulation (Table).

An implication of the variability between studies is that there is not a single estradiol concentration–time curve for a given injectable estradiol preparation but rather there are many, with these curves determined by variables such as formulation, dose/administration, and subject characteristics, among others. Hence, the curve fits determined in this meta-analysis represent only an estimation of the most typical and hence likely case, but the true curve for a preparation in a given context may be quite different.

Fitting all studies for a given injectable estradiol preparation individually first, and then fitting the fits of these studies, allowed for improved curve fits relative to directly fitting all of the combined processed original data for the preparation. The latter approach has limitations in that it has the effect of inherently weighting individual studies by quantity of time points (resulting in studies with greater time sampling having greater influence on the fit). Additionally, and more problematically, this approach can lead to distortions in curve shape due to different studies sampling different portions of the curve to differing extents in conjunction with systematic differences in curves between these studies. These are problems that fitting the fits of individual studies instead can solve. However, it is not possible to fit all individual studies, as some studies have limited time sampling and curve characterization which precludes fitting them appropriately. Cmax data are an example of this, which on their own cannot be fit properly. As such, it was not possible to fit the fits of the individual studies for all injectable estradiol preparations. Consequently, the fitting approach in this regard was not the same across esters, with some fit instead directly to the combined processed original data (e.g., estradiol enanthate, polyestradiol phosphate).

In spite of the various limitations of this work, aggregated analysis and modeling with injectable estradiol preparations has not previously been done. This informal meta-analysis provides among the most detailed insight into estradiol levels and curve shapes with these preparations available to date.

Durations and Curve Shapes

The curve shapes of non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters in oil relate strongly to lipophilicity. The more lipophilic the ester, the lower the peak levels and the more protracted the estradiol concentration–time curve. Accordingly, estradiol benzoate, one of the least lipophilic estradiol esters, has one of the spikiest curves and shortest durations, whereas more lipophilic estradiol esters, like estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate, have comparatively flatter curves with delayed peaks and longer durations.

Duration of Estradiol Valerate

The estradiol concentration–time curve for injectable estradiol valerate in the well-known Oriowo et al. (1980) [Graph] study is notably spikier and shorter-lasting than the overall curve for estradiol valerate in this meta-analysis. On the other hand, the overall curve for injectable estradiol valerate in this meta-analysis was similar to (and considerably influenced by) the curves from several relatively recent and presumably better-quality studies of this injectable estradiol ester (e.g., Göretzlehner et al., 2002; Valle Alvarez, 2011; Schug, Donath, & Blume, 2012). It’s noteworthy that Oriowo et al. (1980) used a peanut oil-based formulation of estradiol valerate that differed from pharmaceutical injectable estradiol valerate preparations, which generally use sesame oil or castor oil as the carrier (as well as other excipients) (Table). This may have influenced the curve shape of estradiol valerate in Oriowo et al. (1980). The study also had a small sample size relative to the more recent studies (n=9 versus n=17, n=32, and n=24×2, respectively). Based on the newer and overall data, estradiol valerate appears to have a curve that is noticeably flatter and more prolonged than that suggested by Oriowo et al. (1980).

Duration of Estradiol Cypionate in Oil versus Estradiol Enanthate

Available estradiol concentration–time data for injectable estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate in oil are more limited than with several of the other injectable estradiol preparations, and no direct comparisons of these two preparations exist at present. Based on some of the available literature on these injectable estradiol esters, most notably discussion by Oriowo et al. (1980) and a review of the pharmacokinetics of combined injectable contraceptives (Garza-Flores, 1994 [Graph]), it seemed that the duration of estradiol enanthate in oil was longer than that of estradiol cypionate in oil. However, this was based on limited research from separate and hence indirectly comparative studies of these esters. The estradiol cypionate in oil data from the relevant Garza-Flores (1994) figure was based on Oriowo et al. (1980) [Graph], and there are reasons to be cautious about relying on these data alone. The main concern is that curve shapes with the same injectable estradiol preparation can vary considerably across studies, as the present meta-analysis has shown. The reasons for this have yet to be fully clarified as already discussed, but among other factors may include varying formulations across studies of the same injectable estradiol ester. It is notable in this regard that Oriowo et al. (1980) used a formulation of estradiol cypionate that differs from conventional pharmaceutical estradiol cypionate in oil preparations—specifically, the study used a peanut oil-based formulation (with few other specifics) rather than the cottonseed oil-based preparation employed in marketed pharmaceutical formulations (Table). The study also had a somewhat small sample size (n=10) and may have had significant sampling error. Hence, single studies, perhaps particularly Oriowo et al. (1980), should be interpreted cautiously.

A small but interesting pharmacokinetic study which directly compared injectable testosterone cypionate (n=6) and testosterone enanthate (n=6) both in oil is relevant to the topic in question. This study found that equivalent doses of these testosterone esters using otherwise identical formulations produced virtually identical testosterone concentration–time curves (Schulte-Beerbühl & Nieschlag, 1980 [Graph]). The findings of this study are consistent with the fact that the lipophilicities of testosterone cypionate and testosterone enanthate (as measured by predicted log P) are very similar when directly compared (e.g., 5.1 vs. 5.11 with ALOGPS, 6.29 vs. 6.11 with ChemAxon logP, and 6.4 vs. 6.3 with XLogP3, respectively (Table). This of course is of importance as lipophilicity is thought to be the key factor determining the release kinetics of oil-based depot injectables (Sinkula, 1978; Shah, 2007; Larsen & Larsen, 2009; Larsen, Thing, & Larsen, 2012; Shahiwala, Mehta, & Momin, 2018). Analogously similar lipophilicities can be seen when comparing estradiol cypionate and estradiol enanthate, which employ the same ester moieties (e.g., predicted log P values of 6.47 vs. 6.45 with ALOGPS and 7.1 vs. 7.0 with XLogP3, respectively) (Table). Hence, on a theoretical level, injectable estradiol cypionate and estradiol enanthate, like injectable testosterone cypionate and testosterone enanthate, might be expected to produce very similar curves—at least provided all other variables, such as formulation, are held constant.

The present meta-analysis found that the overall estradiol curve for estradiol cypionate in oil was significantly less spikey and more prolonged than that observed in Oriowo et al. (1980). It is noteworthy in this regard that all of the other studies included for estradiol cypionate in oil specifically employed pharmaceutical Depo-Estradiol and that the overall curve for this preparation appears to be more consistent with its licensed injection interval for use in menopausal hormone therapy (1–5 mg once every 3–4 weeks) (Depo-Estradiol Label). Moreover, this meta-analysis found that injectable estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate in oil had fairly similar and comparably flat and prolonged estradiol concentration–time curves. However, estradiol cypionate in oil appeared to peak earlier than estradiol enanthate, while estradiol enanthate was eliminated more rapidly than estradiol cypionate in oil in the terminal portion of the curve. In any case, the available concentration–time data for these preparations are limited, and the present work is not able to determine whether these estradiol esters have truly differing pharmacokinetic properties, as the apparent differences between the curves for these preparations may simply be due to statistical error. Taken together, estradiol cypionate in oil may have a less spikey and longer-lasting curve than that implied by Oriowo et al. (1980), and estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate may have more similar curves than has been previously assumed.

Curve Shape of Estradiol Cypionate Suspension

While estradiol cypionate as an aqueous suspension is a relatively long-lasting injectable estradiol preparation similarly to estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate in oil, it seems to differ in the shape of its estradiol concentration–time curve from these preparations. Estradiol cypionate as a suspension has a curve that appears to peak significantly earlier than estradiol cypionate in oil and other longer-acting oil-based injectable estradiol preparations. This might relate to the differing mechanisms of depot action and unique properties of injectable aqueous suspensions (Aly, 2019). In line with this notion, injectable medroxyprogesterone acetate suspension (Depo-Provera) also appears to peak rapidly despite having a very long duration (longer durations tending to be associated with delayed peaks in the case of oil-based depot injectables) (Graphs). Although aqueous suspensions generally last longer than oil solutions as injectables (Enever et al., 1983; Aly, 2019), this is not always the case, and estradiol cypionate suspension interestingly seems to be shorter-acting than estradiol cypionate in oil.

Estradiol Exposure and Potency

The average estradiol levels with the non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters when scaled to a dose and dosing interval of 5 mg every 7 days were around 300 pg/mL (~1,100 pmol/L). For comparison, in premenopausal cisgender women, estradiol production is on average about 200 μg/day (or 6 mg per month/cycle) and mean estradiol levels are around 100 pg/mL (~370 pmol/L) (Aly, 2019). After adjusting for the molecular weight of the ester, the estradiol levels for a given dose of non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters are in fairly close agreement with the estradiol levels for an equal quantity of estradiol produced endogenously by the ovaries in premenopausal cisgender women (very roughly around 1.2 mg estradiol per 7 days for injectable estradiol esters and 1.4 mg estradiol per 7 days for ovarian production to achieve average integrated estradiol levels of around 100 pg/mL). The preceding is in accordance with the fact that injectable estradiol valerate has been reported to have approximately 100% bioavailability (with this being less characterized but likely also the case for the other non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters) (Düsterberg & Nishino, 1982; Seibert & Günzel, 1994).

Although non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters have differing estradiol concentration–time curve shapes, they all appear to achieve fairly similar area-under-the-curve levels of estradiol when compared to one another. This is in accordance with the fact that differences in molecular weight and hence estradiol content with the different estradiol esters are fairly minor (all of the assessed non-polymeric esters range from 62 to 76% of that of estradiol in terms of estradiol content, and all but estradiol undecylate are in the range of 69 to 76%) (Table). The appearance of differences in area-under-the-curve levels of estradiol in the present meta-analysis is probably just due to statistical error, and true differences cannot be established by this meta-analysis. An implication of the similar area-under-the-curve estradiol levels with the different non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters is that these preparations can all be expected to deliver a roughly comparable amount of estradiol for the same dose.

On the other hand, the polymeric ester polyestradiol phosphate appears to produce around 6- to 7-fold lower area-under-the-curve and average estradiol levels than non-polymeric estradiol esters. This suggests that the estradiol in polyestradiol phosphate is not 100% bioavailable, and is supported by the fact that this ester is used clinically at substantially higher dosages than other injectable estradiol esters (40–320 mg/month), even for the same indications such as menopausal hormone therapy and treatment of prostate cancer (Wiki; Estradurin Labels). This does not seem to have been previously described in the literature, and the reasons for it are unknown. It seems possible that polyestradiol phosphate may be partially excreted before it can be cleaved into estradiol and thereby rendered partly inactive, in turn necessitating the use of higher doses to achieve the same estradiol levels and therapeutic effect.

Although two given injectable estradiol preparations may produce equivalent total estradiol levels, this does not necessarily mean that they will always have the same estrogenic potency (i.e., strength of effect at a given dose). It is plausible that spikier estradiol concentration–time curves, like with estradiol benzoate, may have overall lower estrogenic potency than more steady curves, like with estradiol enanthate. This is because estrogen receptors for a given tissue should become saturated at a certain point due to the finite quantity of available receptors in the tissue. As a result, high peak estradiol levels with spikier curves may effectively be “wasted” to varying extents in different tissues. On the other hand, more spikey estradiol curves, due to higher peak estradiol levels, might have greater influence on tissues that require high estradiol levels for effect such as the liver (and by extension on coagulation and associated health risks) (Aly, 2020). However, these possibilities are speculative and theoretical. Although some literature exists that is relevant to this issue (e.g., Parkes, 1937; Bradbury, Long, & Durham, 1953), there is very little research in this area. Consequently, it is not currently possible to take into account time-related variations in estradiol levels or differing estradiol curve shapes when assessing the comparative estrogenic potency between injectable estradiol preparations (or between other estradiol forms/routes). It is also noteworthy that these variations depend on injection interval and may be reduced with shorter injection intervals that maintain steadier estradiol levels, which must also be considered.

Variability Between Individuals

There is substantial variation in total estradiol levels and curve shapes between people with the same injectable estradiol preparation. Indicators of interindividual variability such as standard deviation or 95% range have not been included in this meta-analysis at this time due to the large amount of additional time and work this would require (e.g., additional extraction of error bars from all studies and analysis). In any case, individual studies that were included show this marked interindividual variation (e.g., Oriowo et al., 1980; Derra, 1981 [Graph]; Aedo et al., 1985 [Graphs]; Sang et al., 1987 [Graphs]; Rahimy & Ryan, 1999 [Graph]; Valle Alvarez, 2011 [Graph]; Schug, Donath, & Blume, 2012 [Graphs]). Highly variable estradiol levels are already well-established with oral and transdermal estradiol (Kuhl, 2005; Wiki). Less variability might be expected with non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters since these preparations appear to have approximately complete bioavailability. However, it seems that even with injectable forms of estradiol, the variability between people is still quite substantial. An implication of this is that the appropriate dose and dosing interval of an injectable estradiol formulation for a given person will vary considerably. This emphasizes the importance of blood work to ensure that injectable estradiol preparations are neither overdosed—which can increase health risks such as blood clots (Aly, 2020)—nor underdosed—which may result in suboptimal testosterone suppression and therapeutic efficacy.

Insights for Clinical Guidelines and Dosing Recommendations

Clinical guidelines for transgender health (see also Aly (2020)) provide recommendations on doses and dosing intervals of injectable estradiol valerate in oil and estradiol cypionate in oil (Table 11). Dosing recommendations are not given for other injectable estradiol preparations, which are much less commonly used in transgender medicine. The recommended doses for estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate vary widely depending on the guidelines, whereas the recommended intervals are consistently once every 1 to 2 weeks. The doses for estradiol valerate range from 2 to 20 mg/week or 5 to 80 mg/2 weeks and the doses for estradiol cypionate range from <1 to 10 mg/week or <2 to 80 mg/2 weeks. For reference, the Endocrine Society guidelines and the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) guidelines are the most major clinical guidelines for transgender hormone therapy at present (Aly, 2020). The Endocrine Society guidelines recommend 5 to 30 mg/2 weeks or 2 to 10 mg/week for either estradiol valerate or estradiol cypionate (Hembree et al., 2017). Conversely, the UCSF guidelines recommend <20 to 40 mg/2 weeks for estradiol valerate and <2 to 5 mg/2 weeks for estradiol cypionate (with the option to divide dose into weekly injections if cyclical side effects occur) (Deutsch, 2016a).

Table 11: Recommended doses and injection intervals of injectable estradiol preparations (specifically estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate) in transgender medicine clinical guidelinesa:

GuidelinesEster(s)Dose ranges and intervals
Endocrine Society / Hembree et al. (2017)Estradiol valerate or cypionate5–30 mg/2 weeks or 2–10 mg/week i.m.
UCSF / Deutsch (2016b)Estradiol valerateInitial–low: <20 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Initial: 20 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Note: “May divide dose into weekly injections for cyclical symptoms”
Note: Specifically for transfeminine adults
 Estradiol cypionateInitial–low: <2 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Initial: 2 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 5 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Note: “May divide dose into weekly injections for cyclical symptoms”
Note: Specifically for transfeminine adults
UCSF / Olson-Kennedy et al. (2016)Estradiol valerate5–20 mg/2 weeks
Maximum: 30–40 mg/2 weeks
Note: Specifically for transfeminine youth
 Estradiol cypionate2–10 mg/week
Note: Specifically for transfeminine youth
Fenway Health / Cavanaugh et al. (2015)Estradiol valerateInitial: 5–10 mg/week i.m.
Usual: 20 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
 Estradiol cypionateInitial: 2.5 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Usual: 5 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 10 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Callen-Lorde (2018)Estradiol valerateInitial: 10–20 mg/2 weeks
Maximum: 20–40 mg/2 weeks
 Estradiol cypionateInitial: 2.5 mg/2 weeks
Maximum: 5 mg/2 weeks
Davidson et al. / Tom Waddell Health Center (2013)Estradiol valerate or cypionateInitial: 20–40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Average: 40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 40–80 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Bourns / Sherbourne Health / Rainbow Health Ontario (2019)Estradiol valerateInitial: 3–4 mg/week or 6–8 mg/2 weeks
Usual: Variable
Maximum: 10 mg/week
Trans Care BC (2021)Estradiol valerateInitial: 5 mg/week i.m. or s.c.
Usual: 10–20 mg/week i.m. or s.c.
Every 2 weeks at 2x dose may be tolerated in some
Dahl et al. / Vancouver Coastal Health (2015)Estradiol valerate20–40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Note: “Alternative estrogen therapy for 3–6 months only”
European Society for Sexual Medicine / T’Sjoen et al. (2020)Estradiol valerate5–30 mg/1–2 weeks i.m.
 Estradiol cypionate2–10 mg/week i.m.
TransLine (2019)Estradiol valerateInitial/Usual: 5–10 mg/week
Maximum: 20 mg/week
 Estradiol cypionateInitial/Usual: 1.25–2.5 mg/week
Maximum: 5 mg/week

a Several other guidelines recommend doses and intervals that appear to be taken directly from the Endocrine Society or UCSF guidelines and thus are not listed here but can be found elsewhere (Aly, 2020).

A number of concerns arise when the doses and intervals of injectable estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate recommended by the major transgender clinical guidelines are considered in the context of the present informal meta-analysis and when they are compared between guidelines. Based on the present work, dosages of injectable preparations recommended by the major transgender clinical guidelines appear to result in estradiol exposure that is markedly higher than that with the recommended dosages for other routes and forms of estradiol (e.g., oral or transdermal). Whereas a dosage of 5 mg/week of any non-polymeric injectable estradiol ester appears to give average estradiol levels of around 300 pg/mL (~1,100 pmol/L), which are already supraphysiological, doses of injectable estradiol valerate or estradiol cypionate recommended by guidelines are as high as 15 to 20 mg per week. The average estradiol concentrations that would be expected to result from such doses per this meta-analysis (e.g., ~600–1,200 pg/mL or 2,200–4,400 pmol/L at 10–20 mg/week) (Figure 10) would vastly exceed the ranges for estradiol levels in transfeminine people advised by the same guidelines (generally about 50–200 pg/mL or ~180–730 pmol/L) (Table). This is not merely theoretical; for example, a study that used 40 mg/week estradiol valerate by intramuscular injection in cisgender women with estrogen deficiency to produce “pseudopregnancy” reported measured estradiol levels of about 2,500 pg/mL (~9,200 pmol/L) at 3 months and 3,100 pg/mL (~11,400 pmol/L) at 6 months of treatment (Ulrich, Pfeifer, & Lauritzen, 1994). Moreover, highly supraphysiological estradiol levels with guideline-based injectable estradiol doses are not unexpected when normal production of estradiol in premenopausal cisgender women is considered (~1.4 mg per week or 6 mg per month/cycle giving mean estradiol levels of ~100 pg/mL or 370 pmol/L) (Aly, 2019). Clinical safety data on high doses of injectable estradiol esters like estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate are lacking at present, but excessive estrogenic exposure is known to increase the risk of health complications such as blood clots (Aly, 2020). The very high doses of these preparations that are recommended by guidelines should raise considerable reservations about their safety.

Figure 10: Simulated estradiol levels with injectable estradiol valerate at the doses and interval (5–40 mg/2 weeks) preferentially recommended by current major transgender care guidelines. Steady-state estradiol levels are reached by about the second or third injection with this injection interval and levels do not further accumulate. An alternative version of this figure with half-doses at a once-weekly interval (i.e., 2.5–20 mg/week) is also provided (Graph).

The present author elsewhere has listed doses of injectable estradiol preparations that are roughly comparable in terms of total estradiol exposure to doses for other estradiol forms and routes used in transfeminine people (Aly, 2020). These doses range from about 1 to 6 mg per week for “low dose” to “very high dose” therapy with non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters (Graph). This dose range for injectable estradiol is likely to be more appropriate for use in transfeminine people than current recommendations by many guidelines. Although high estradiol levels can be useful in transfeminine hormone therapy when antiandrogens are not used due to their greater efficacy than physiological levels in terms of testosterone suppression, only modestly supraphysiological estradiol levels (e.g., ~200–300 pg/mL or 730–1,100 pmol/L) appear to be required for strong testosterone suppression (Aly, 2019; Langley et al., 2021; Aly, 2020). In relation to this, doses of injectable estradiol need not be excessive.

Some guidelines, such as the Endocrine Society guidelines, recommend the same doses and intervals for both estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate, whereas other guidelines, such as the UCSF guidelines, recommend different doses for these two injectable estradiol esters. Concerningly, the doses for estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate recommended by the UCSF guidelines differ by roughly an order of magnitude (<20 to 40 mg/2 weeks for estradiol valerate and <2 to 5 mg/2 weeks for estradiol cypionate). These estradiol esters appear to produce similar average estradiol levels (e.g., around 300 pg/mL or 1,100 pmol/L at a dosage of 5 mg/week) and have concentration–time curve shapes that are not extremely different, with estradiol cypionate being only somewhat flatter and more prolonged than estradiol valerate. As such, it would appear that similar doses should be appropriate for these esters. This is supported by the fact that the same doses of estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate are used in combined injectable contraceptives in cisgender women (both 5 mg once per month) and that these doses were carefully determined during an intensive clinical development programme for these preparations (Garza-Flores, 1994; Newton, d’Arcangues, & Hall, 1994; Sang, 1994; Toppozada, 1994). This programme notably included dose-ranging and direct-comparison studies. Based on the present analysis, the current recommendations by the UCSF guidelines may result in marked overdosage in the case of estradiol valerate and potential underdosage in the case of estradiol cypionate.

Transgender health guidelines recommend an injection interval for estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate in oil of once every 1 to 2 weeks. Although an injection interval of 2 weeks seems technically feasible in the case of both of these preparations, such an interval would appear to result in substantial fluctuations in estradiol levels, with high peak levels and low troughs. This is particularly true in the case of the shorter-acting estradiol valerate (Figures 10, 11). Considering the wide fluctuations and unknown effects of this variability, as well as the fact that testosterone suppression when applicable may depend on sustained higher estradiol levels, it may be advisable that a once-weekly interval be preferentially recommended for these preparations. This would achieve steadier estradiol levels and would reduce potential problems due to high or low estradiol levels (Figure 11). Alternatively, a shorter interval of once every 5 days may be used with estradiol valerate to further reduce the variability in estradiol levels that occurs with this preparation (Figure 11). On the other hand, an injection interval of once every 10 days to 2 weeks may be practical and allowable in the case of the longer-acting estradiol cypionate in oil (as well as estradiol enanthate) (Figure 11)—provided that the injection cycles are well-tolerated and testosterone suppression remains adequate. When selecting different injection intervals, doses should be scaled by the interval to maintain equivalent total estradiol exposure (e.g., 3.5 mg/5 days, 5 mg/7 days, 7 mg/10 days, or 10 mg/14 days for high-dose non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters).

Figure 11: Simulated estradiol levels with a high dosage of injectable estradiol valerate or estradiol cypionate in oil at different injection intervals (doses scaled by interval to be equivalent in total estradiol exposure).

With the preceding concerns about the doses and intervals of injectable estradiol preparations recommended by transgender care guidelines considered, the question of how these recommendations were determined arises. Unfortunately, current guidelines do not generally describe how they arrived at their recommendations nor do they usually cite sources to support them. It is notable that the UCSF guidelines recommend doses and intervals for injectable estradiol preparations that are nearly identical to those advised by Christian Hamburger and Harry Benjamin in the late 1960s in the first medical textbook on transgender people (Hamburger & Benjamin, 1969). These authors recommended a dose of 10–40 mg/2 weeks for estradiol valerate and of 2–5 mg/2 weeks for estradiol cypionate (although Benjamin additionally stated that after 4–8 months, the same doses could be used at a longer injection interval of once every 4 weeks). These recommendations were notably made before estradiol blood tests became practicably available and were prior to the advent of modern pharmacokinetic studies. Hence, the recommendations for at least these guidelines appear to be based mainly on past expert opinion and long-standing historical precedent rather than on pharmacokinetic or clinical data. The same is likely to also be true for most other guidelines. High doses with certain injectable estradiol preparations (namely estradiol valerate) were probably originally employed for the purpose of achieving longer durations and more convenient injection intervals. This was notably prior to the risks of excessive estrogenic exposure like blood clots becoming known, and these doses may simply have never been revised.

The reasons that dose recommendations for injectable estradiol in transfeminine people have remained as they have for so long may be related to several factors. These include (1) a long-standing lack of research and funding in transgender health; (2) injectable estradiol not being widely available or as commonly used as other forms of estradiol; and (3) many clinicians only testing estradiol levels at trough (right before the next injection) with injectable estradiol preparations (e.g., Mueller et al., 2011; Chantrapanichkul et al., 2021; Cirrincione et al., 2021). The latter point is noteworthy as trough levels only describe the lowest point of the estradiol concentration–time curve with injectable estradiol preparations, and can give a very misleading impression of average or total estradiol exposure. In any case, the very high estradiol levels with currently recommended doses of injectable estradiol forms for transfeminine people have not gone unnoticed in the literature (e.g., Gooren, 2005; Spack, 2013; Deutsch, 2014; Glintborg et al., 2021; Tassinari & Maranghi, 2021; Le, Huang, & Cirrincione, 2022). Additionally, studies in transfeminine people have reported high to very high estradiol levels with typical clinical doses of injectable estradiol (e.g., Futterweit, Gabrilove, & Smith, 1984 [Figure]; Kronawitter et al., 2009 [Table]; Mueller et al., 2011 [Table]; Sharula et al., 2012 [Data]; Nelson et al., 2016 [Table]; LaBudde, Craig, & Spratt, 2020; Chantrapanichkul et al., 2021 [Table]; Cirrincione et al., 2021 [Table]).

Among the surveyed guidelines for transgender hormone therapy, only the UCSF guidelines (Deutsch, 2016b) and the Sherbourne Health/Rainbow Health Ontario guidelines (Bourns, 2019) referenced pharmacokinetic literature in their discussion of injectable estradiol. The specific publications cited by these guidelines were Düsterberg & Nishino (1982), Sierra-Ramírez et al. (2011), and Thurman et al. (2013). Although it is favorable to see guidelines considering published pharmacokinetic data for informing use of these preparations, there are a few concerns about the studies that were cited. Düsterberg & Nishino (1982) in its study of injectable estradiol valerate had a very small sample size (n=2), and this study was excluded as an outlier in the present meta-analysis due to unusually high estradiol levels. The findings of Düsterberg & Nishino (1982) also do not seem to have actually been used to guide dosing recommendations in the case of the UCSF guidelines, since if this were the case, the recommended doses should have been much lower. On the other hand, Bourns (2019) cited the same study and recommended injectable estradiol valerate at doses of 3–4 mg/week or 6–8 mg/2 weeks. These doses are well below those recommended by other transgender care guidelines and appear to be more appropriate for use in transfeminine people in light of the present meta-analysis. Sierra-Ramírez et al. (2011) and Thurman et al. (2013), although better-quality studies than Düsterberg & Nishino (1982), described injectable estradiol cypionate suspension rather than estradiol cypionate in oil. The oil-based version of estradiol cypionate is the form normally used in transfeminine hormone therapy, and there are important differences between these estradiol cypionate preparations such that pharmacokinetic studies for the suspension can’t necessarily be generalized to the oil solution. These preparations do in any case produce similar total estradiol levels however and hence doses should be comparable for them.

This meta-analysis is only informal and unpublished research. Nonetheless, based on the results of this work and the preceding discussion, current dosing recommendations for injectable estradiol preparations by most transgender clinical guidelines appear to be highly excessive and likely unsafe, with injection intervals that may additionally be too widely spaced. Transgender care guidelines should consider reassessing these recommendations, and the transgender medical community should make an effort to better characterize the pharmacokinetics and optimal dosing schemes of injectable estradiol preparations in transfeminine people in the future. Since clinical data on these preparations are scarce and will probably remain so in the near-term, use of published pharmacokinetic data may be further considered for guiding dosing recommendations for injectable estradiol. As identified and catalogued by this meta-analysis, there is a wealth of existing data that could be used to better inform transgender care guidelines in terms of the use of injectable estradiol preparations in transfeminine people.

Interactive Web Simulator

This informal meta-analysis of estradiol concentration–time data with injectable estradiol preparations was conducted for the purpose of deriving accurate and representative estradiol curves for incorporation into a web-based injectable estradiol simulator intended for use by transfeminine people and their clinicians. This web app is able to simulate both single-injection curves and repeated-injection curves with these preparations. An informational page for this simulator can be found at the following location:

And the injectable estradiol simulator itself can be found at the following page:

Future Possibilities

There are various possibilities for further work on this project in the future. For example, assessment of interindividual variability for estradiol levels with injectable estradiol preparations could be included in the meta-analysis. As another example, it would be fairly straightforward and valuable to expand the meta-analysis as well as simulator to other hormonal preparations such as injectable testosterone preparations and other estradiol routes and forms like oral estradiol, sublingual estradiol, and estradiol pellets. Pharmacokinetic literature for some of these preparations has already been collected by this author. However, these future possibilities would require much additional time and effort to complete.

Special Thanks

A special thank you to Violet and Lila for their indispensable input and guidance on modeling topics during the work on this project. An additional thanks to Violet for deriving a special three-compartment pharmacokinetic model that was used in this work. Please also check out Violet’s own projects Tilia—an effort to empower trans people with tools to manage their hormonal transitions—and TransKit—a work-in-progress pharmacokinetic simulation library specifically tailored for transgender hormone therapy. Lastly, thank you to all the peer reviewers who carefully reviewed this article prior to it being posted.

Updates

Update 1: WPATH SOC8 Guidelines

In September 2022, the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH) Standards of Care for the Health of Transgender and Gender Diverse People Version 8 (SOC8) were published and made recommendations on transgender hormone therapy for the first time (Coleman et al., 2022). These guidelines are among the most highly regarded and consulted transgender care guidelines. In terms of the recommended doses of hormonal medications for transgender people, the WPATH SOC8 appear to have largely copied the Endocrine Society’s 2017 guidelines on transgender hormone therapy (Hembree et al., 2017). More specifically, in the case of injectable estradiol preparations for transfeminine people, doses of 5–30 mg/2 weeks or 2–10 mg/week estradiol valerate or estradiol cypionate were recommended. There was no discussion of injectable estradiol in the guidelines besides the preceding doses and intervals being included in a table, and no literature citations were included to support these doses. As described in the present work, these recommendations include doses and intervals that appear to be highly excessive, too widely spaced, and are likely unsafe. As such, major transgender care guidelines unfortunately continue to make uncited recommendations for injectable estradiol that are out of step with insights available from abundant published pharmacokinetic data. These recommendations are likely inadvisable, with the possibility of substantial health risks.

Update 2: Literature Mentions

The following publications in the literature have cited or mentioned Transfeminine Science’s injectable estradiol simulator and/or meta-analysis since the project was published in mid-2021:

Hughes et al. (2022)

Hughes, J. H., Woo, K. H., Keizer, R. J., & Goswami, S. (2022). Clinical Decision Support for Precision Dosing: Opportunities for Enhanced Equity and Inclusion in Health Care. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 113(3), 565–574. [DOI:10.1002/cpt.2799]:

Lastly, we recommend that developers of [clinical decision support software (CDSS)] for dosing take an iterative and participatory approach to designing systems. By involving stakeholders in the design process, they will develop solutions that best suit users’ needs and are more likely to be adopted and used correctly. This participatory approach should involve interviews and usability testing with clinicians. Formal usability testing and analysis with real end users can improve the quality and usefulness of a system.88 Though patients themselves are not typically the end users of CDSS, their expertise (especially that of marginalized groups and organized patient advocacy organizations) can also inform CDSS developers. As an example, transgender people have compiled their own resources to understanding dosing regimens in the absence of clear clinical guidelines.89 Developers of CDSS could provide a great deal of value to these patient populations, and improve their software’s utility, by working with them to understand their needs from a dosing tool.

89. Aly, W. An interactive web simulator for estradiol levels with injectable estradiol esters. Transfeminine Science <https://transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-simulator-release/> (2021) Accessed November 1, 2022.

Jaafar et al. (2022)

Jaafar, S., Torres-Leguizamon, M., Duplessy, C., & Stambolis-Ruhstorfer, M. (2022). Hormonothérapie injectable et réduction des risques: pratiques, difficultés, santé des personnes trans en France. [Hormone replacement therapy injections and harm reduction: practices, difficulties, and transgender people’s health in France.] Sante Publique, 34(HS2), 109–122. [Google Scholar] [PubMed] [DOI:10.3917/spub.hs2.0109] [Translated]:

With regard to feminizing [substitutive hormone therapy (HS)], there are no specialty injectables based on estrogens in the French pharmacopoeia. This makes it impossible to set up estrogen monotherapies which require high dosages that are more difficult to obtain with specialties with other galenic forms [5]. Faced with this lack of care, some trans women and transfeminine people obtain estradiol-based injectable solutions on the Internet or through other sources [6]. […]

5. Aly. An informal meta-analysis of estradiol curves with injectable estradiol preparations [Internet]. Transfem Sci. 2021 July 16. [Visited on 29/12/2022]. Online : https://transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/.

Linet (2023)

Linet, T. (2023). Prise en charge endocrinologique d’une personne trans. [Endocrinological care of a trans person.] In Faucher, P., Hassoun, D., & Linet, T. (Eds.). Santé sexuelle et reproductive des personnes LGBT [Sexual and Reproductive Health of LGBT People] (pp. 109–124). Issy-les-Moulineaux, France: Elsevier Masson. [Google Books] [URL] [WorldCat] [Excerpt] [Translated]:

Choice of estrogen.

Estradiol is generally the most prescribed estrogen. It is given orally or sublingually in transfeminine people with no significant cardiovascular risk factors. For others, the percutaneous form (patches, gel) is recommended.

The starting dose is 2 mg of estradiol orally with a step increase of 2 mg every 2 to 3 months until the optimal dose is reached [1]. For the patches, the initial dosage and the increments are 50 or 100 μg, and for the gel 2.5 g. This means that the optimal dose is generally 6 to 8 mg per day for the oral route, 3 to 4 mg for the sublingual route, and 300 to 400 μg for the patches (see table 11.1).

It may happen in consultation that the person does not wish to use the prescribed estrogens and wishes to continue the self-prescription of injectable estrogens. It is then possible to evaluate with them the most suitable dosage using the Transfem Science Injection Simulator (https://transfemscience.org/misc/injectable-e2-simulator/). Risk prevention related to injections (needles) can be done. Associations can help the person find 25 G needles of 40 mm useful this type of treatment.

Rothman et al. (2024)

Rothman, M. S., Ariel, D., Kelley, C., Hamnvik, O. R., Abramowitz, J., Irwig, M. S., Soe, K., Davidge-Pitts, C., Misakian, A. L., Safer, J. D., & Iwamoto, S. J. (2024). The Use of Injectable Estradiol in Transgender and Gender Diverse Adults: A Scoping Review of Dose and Serum Estradiol Levels. Endocrine Practice, ahead of print. [DOI:10.1016/j.eprac.2024.05.008]:

In recent years, we have noted trends in our clinical practices with TGD adults requesting injectable estradiol, particularly in the United States. The reasons given can vary; it may be due to ease of weekly or every two weeks administration, fatigue of taking daily oral medications and skin reactions to or cost of transdermal preparations. There have been discussions as to the roles of estrone/estradiol ratios in feminization and whether injectable estradiol might lead to more favorable results, however research has not supported a role for estrone in optimizing feminizing outcomes [13]. There is also a belief that higher levels can be attained with 82 injections and may lead to faster and more complete feminization; however, there is a lack of data in the literature to support these conclusions. Such conversations occurring on reddit.com and even some hormone provider websites, are perhaps related to the historical use of high dose injectable estradiol noted above [14]. However, there is a paucity of data to guide clinicians on what dose, type and at what interval estradiol esters should be injected and when levels should be measured to ensure physiologic range estradiol levels. In fact, recent reports and clinical observations have raised concerns that the dosing suggested in guidelines may result in supraphysiological estradiol levels and that higher doses and levels may put patients at elevated risk of thromboembolic events [15-18]. This scoping review examines the available data on levels achieved with various dosages of estradiol injections in TGD adults. We also report on testosterone suppression, route (i.e., SC vs. IM), and type of estradiol ester as well as timing of blood draw relative to dose, where available.

Acknowledgment

[…] [We] thank Aly from Transfemscience for community representation and correspondence.

  1. https://transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/. [March 16, 2024].

Update 3: Herndon et al. (2023)

In March 2023, the following study on injectable estradiol in transfeminine people was published online:

  • Herndon, J. S., Maheshwari, A. K., Nippoldt, T. B., Carlson, S. J., Davidge-Pitts, C. J., & Chang, A. Y. (2023). Comparison of Subcutaneous and Intramuscular Estradiol Regimens as part of Gender-Affirming Hormone Therapy. Endocrine Practice, 29(5), 356–361. [DOI:10.1016/j.eprac.2023.02.006] [URL]

The study was a retrospective analysis of individualized injectable estradiol in adult transfeminine people who received hormone therapy at the Mayo Clinic. Doses of injectable estradiol were adjusted by clinical providers based on estradiol levels, testosterone suppression, and feminization goals, and subsequently these clinical data were retrospectively studied by Mayo Clinic researchers. The primary aim of the study was to compare injectable estradiol by intramuscular versus subcutaneous routes. However, other general considerations for injectable estradiol, such as dosing, estradiol levels, testosterone suppression, type of injectable estradiol ester (estradiol valerate vs. estradiol cypionate), and estradiol monotherapy versus concomitant use of antiandrogens, were also assessed. The paper noted that the study was the largest to assess injectable estradiol in transfeminine people to date and was the first to directly compare intramuscular and subcutaneous injectable estradiol routes in transfeminine people.

Injectable estradiol doses were adjusted to achieve estradiol and testosterone levels within therapeutic ranges defined by the Endocrine Society 2017 guidelines (>100 pg/mL [367 pg/mL] for estradiol and <50 ng/dL [<1.7 nmol/L] for testosterone). Estradiol levels were measured exclusively using liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS), while the assay method for measuring testosterone levels was not specified. In terms of when in the injection cycle estradiol levels were measured, the authors stated the following: (1) “Timing of estradiol blood draw in relation to injection was not protocolized” and (2) “In our practice, although estradiol concentrations were generally checked midway through the injection cycle, we were unable to document with certainty the timing of the estradiol lab testing which may have influenced the results and/or the outliers”. Only the most recent blood test for each individual was analyzed, with the results of earlier tests discarded. Doses were analyzed in per-week amounts, regardless of dosing frequency (either once weekly or once every two weeks).

There were a total of 130 transfeminine people on injectable estradiol who were analyzed in the study. Of these individuals, 56 received intramuscular (i.m.) injections and 74 received subcutaneous (s.c.) injections. The median duration of therapy for injectable estradiol was 3.0 years for both routes. The vast majority of people used weekly injections (91.1% for i.m., 98.6% for s.c.), whereas the small remainder (n=6) injected once every 2 weeks. Similarly, the great majority used injectable estradiol valerate (89.3% for i.m., 86.5% for s.c.), while a small subset (n=16) used injectable estradiol cypionate. The authors did not state the injectable vehicles, but they can be confidently assumed to have both been in oil. The treatment-individualized doses per week of injectable estradiol were median 4 mg (interquartile range (IQR) 3–5.15 mg; range 1–8 mg) for the i.m. route and median 3.75 mg (IQR 3–4 mg; range 1–8 mg) for the s.c. route, with the differences in doses between groups being slightly but significantly different (p = 0.005). For the small number of people on two-week injection cycles, the doses for the combined i.m. and s.c. groups were median 8.5 mg (range 6–16 mg) every 2 weeks. Estradiol levels with injectable estradiol were median 189.5 pg/mL (IQR 126.8–252.5 or 122.5–257 pg/mL; range ~33–575 pg/mL] for i.m. and median 196 pg/mL (IQR 125.3–298.5 pg/mL; range ~23–581 pg/mL) for s.c., with the differences between groups not being significantly different (p = 0.70). The percentages of individuals with estradiol levels in target range (>100 pg/mL) were 78.6% for i.m. and 82.4% for s.c. The estradiol doses and levels of individual patients for each route were also provided in the paper (Graph). It can be seen that more individuals clustered into the higher range of doses with i.m. than with s.c. injections.

In the case of estradiol valerate versus estradiol cypionate, dose per week for i.m. with estradiol valerate was median 4 mg (IQR 3–5.45 mg) and with estradiol cypionate was median 4 mg (IQR 2.25–5 mg). In the case of s.c., dose per week with estradiol valerate was median 4 mg (IQR 3–4 mg) and with estradiol cypionate was median 3 mg (IQR 2–3 mg). The doses between estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate were not significantly different in the case of i.m. (p = 0.51), but were significantly different in the case of s.c. (p = 0.025). Estradiol levels with the two different injectable estradiol esters were not provided.

On multiple regression analysis, injectable estradiol dose was significantly positively associated with estradiol levels (p < 0.001) following adjustment for several variables (injection route, body mass index (BMI), antiandrogen use, gonadectomy status). Each 1 mg per week in dose was associated with estradiol levels that were increased by (estimate ± standard error) 57.42 ± 10.46 pg/mL. No other variable, including notably BMI, was significantly associated with estradiol levels. According to the authors, the dose-dependently higher estradiol levels with injectable estradiol suggested the need to start at lower doses that are gradually increased in conjunction with close monitoring of hormone levels.

Testosterone levels in those with gonads were 11 ng/dL (IQR 0–19.8 ng/dL) for i.m. and 11 ng/dL (0–20 ng/dL) for s.c., with levels not significantly different between groups (p = 0.92). Adequate testosterone suppression (<50 ng/dL) in those with gonads was achieved in 84.6% with i.m. and 86.6% with s.c. In the small subset of individuals on injections every two weeks (n=6), 100% of individuals achieved target estradiol and testosterone levels. A majority of individuals on injectable estradiol in the study concomitantly used an antiandrogen, with this usually being spironolactone or finasteride. In a minority of individuals, injectable estradiol monotherapy, without concomitant use of an antiandrogen, was employed and hormone levels were measured (n=17). In this subgroup, estradiol levels were median 220 pg/mL (IQR 180–264 pg/mL) at a dose per week of median 4 mg (IQR 3–6 mg), with estradiol levels noticeably higher than in the overall group. In terms of hormone levels for those on injectable estradiol monotherapy, 100% achieved therapeutic estradiol levels (>100 pg/mL) and 88.2% achieved target testosterone levels (<50 ng/dL). The authors noted that most individuals on injectable estradiol monotherapy were able to adequately suppress testosterone, but that higher doses and levels of estradiol may be needed for testosterone suppression in this context.

Herndon et al. (2023) noted that existing recommendations for injectable estradiol in transfeminine people suggest doses of 2 to 10 mg per week or 5 to 30 mg every 2 weeks, referencing the Endocrine Society 2017 guidelines (Hembree et al., 2017) and UCSF 2016 guidelines (Deutsch, 2016a). They also noted that the UCSF 2016 guidelines recommended lower doses of estradiol cypionate than estradiol valerate, which they attributed to pharmacokinetic differences between the esters (citing Oriowo et al. (1980) for this claim). However, the authors noted that the differences between estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate doses they observed were small, and questioned the clinical relevance of the differences. The authors also tactfully critiqued dosing recommendations by existing guidelines, and suggested their own data to guide dosing instead, with the following relevant excerpts:

Prior studies used for development of guidelines for parenteral doses are suboptimal given their small sample sizes or pre-specificized [gender-affirming hormone therapy (GAHT)] protocols with no adjustment of estradiol doses or no information on hormone concentrations achieved. [Discussion of Deutsch, Bhakri, & Kubicek (2015) and Mueller et al. (2011) …]

Overall, the studies used to support the current dosing recommendation guidelines for parenteral estradiol dosing are limited, incomplete with regards to hormone concentrations achieved, and do not provide SC as an available option. The doses of estradiol used in this study (with either SC or IM approach), were successful in achieving serum estradiol concentrations at the cisgender female range. Most importantly, as compared to current available guidelines and consensus statements [1, 2], these doses of estradiol valerate are less than half of what is recommended for both initial and maintenance dosing and achieved suppression of testosterone.

Lower doses of parenteral injections than previously described in clinical practice guidelines achieved therapeutic estradiol concentrations. Our data can serve as a dosing guide for initial and maintenance use of parenteral estradiol, which is different than what has been previously described.

Herndon et al. (2023) concluded that injectable estradiol by both i.m. and s.c. routes is effective in achieving therapeutic estradiol levels in transfeminine people. They noted that there were not meaningful differences between i.m. and s.c. in terms of dose, although i.m. may require slightly higher doses than s.c. to achieve therapeutic estradiol levels. The authors stated that doses of injectable estradiol to achieve therapeutic estradiol levels in transfeminine people were lower than previously recommended by guidelines and other publications. They concluded that clinical use of injectable estradiol in transfeminine people should include discussion of both i.m. and s.c. routes and invidiualization by patient. Finally, they called for more clinical studies on injectable estradiol in transfeminine people to evaluate clinical outcomes, feminization, and additional risks and benefits of this route compared to other routes.

The findings of Herndon et al. (2023) are pleasingly consistent with the results of the present meta-analysis. Based on the findings of this meta-analysis, assuming a linear relationship between dose and estradiol levels, estradiol levels with non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters, like estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate in oil via intramuscular injection, increase by around 60 pg/mL on average for each 1 mg per week in dose (with Herndon et al. (2023) finding a value of 57 pg/mL per 1 mg using a multiple linear regression model). In relation to this, mean integrated estradiol levels of around 250 pg/mL on average would be expected at a dosage of 4 mg once per week. Accordingly, Herndon et al. (2023) found median estradiol levels of 190 to 196 pg/mL at per-week median doses of 3.75 to 4 mg. Similarly, the present work recommended injectable estradiol doses with non-polymeric esters of 1 to 6 mg per week (to achieve mean integrated estradiol levels of roughly 50–300 pg/mL), which is comparable to the range of about 2 to 6 mg per week used in most transfeminine people in Herndon et al. (2023) (to achieve estradiol levels of at least 100 pg/mL, along with adequate testosterone suppression). Additionally, it was noted in this meta-analysis—based on clinical research in cisgender men with prostate cancer—that only modestly supraphysiological estradiol levels, of no more than approximately 200 to 300 pg/mL, are likely to be needed for strong testosterone suppression in transfeminine people. This has likewise been confirmed with solid clinical data in transfeminine people by Herndon et al. (2023), with 88% of those on injectable estradiol monotherapy having testosterone levels of <50 ng/dL at a median injectable estradiol dose of 4 mg/week and with median estradiol levels of 220 pg/mL. It is the opinion of the present author that Herndon et al. (2023) is a very important and formative study, with clinical implications that go far beyond merely supporting the s.c. use of injectable estradiol. The study represents the first major step in the published literature to correcting the dosing and intervals of injectable estradiol in transgender care guidelines and in transgender health generally. I commend the researchers for their work.

Update 4: Rothman et al. (2024a) and Rothman et al. (2024b)

In February 2024, the following short review on injectable estradiol dosing in transfeminine people by Micol Rothman and colleagues was published online:

  • Rothman, M. S., Hamnvik, O. P. R., Davidge-Pitts, C., Safer, J. D., Ariel, D., Tangpricha, V., Abramowitz, J., Soe, K., Sarvaideo, J., Kelley, C., Irwig, M. S., & Iwamoto, S. J. (2024). Revisiting Injectable Estrogen Dosing Recommendations for Gender-Affirming Hormone Therapy. Transgender Health, ahead of print. [DOI:10.1089/trgh.2023.0209]

Here is the abstract of the paper:

Injectable estrogens are options for gender-affirming hormone therapy per guidelines, which suggest intramuscular dosages of 5–30 mg every 2 weeks or 2–10 mg weekly with estradiol cypionate or valerate interchangeably. Data among transgender and gender-diverse patients are limited due to local unavailability and concerns around laboratory assay variability and estradiol (E2) level fluctuation. We note a concerning trend where patients are prescribed high-dose injections based on the guidelines leading to serum E2 levels well above the range recommended in the same guidelines. Our review indicates that 5 mg weekly or lower should be prescribed when initiating injectable estrogens to avoid supraphysiologic E2 levels.

Then, in May 2024, the following longer and more comprehensive review on injectable estradiol dosing in transfeminine people by Rothman and most of the same other academics was published online:

  • Rothman, M. S., Ariel, D., Kelley, C., Hamnvik, O. R., Abramowitz, J., Irwig, M. S., Soe, K., Davidge-Pitts, C., Misakian, A. L., Safer, J. D., & Iwamoto, S. J. (2024). The Use of Injectable Estradiol in Transgender and Gender Diverse Adults: A Scoping Review of Dose and Serum Estradiol Levels. Endocrine Practice, ahead of print. [DOI:10.1016/j.eprac.2024.05.008]

Here is the abstract of this paper:

Objective: Feminizing gender-affirming hormone therapy is the mainstay of treatment for many transgender and gender diverse people. Injectable estradiol preparations are recommended by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health Standards of Care 8 and the Endocrine Society guidelines. Many patients prefer this route of administration, but few studies have rigorously assessed optimal dosing or route.

Methods: We performed a scoping review of the available data on estradiol levels achieved with various dosages of estradiol injections in transgender and gender diverse adults on feminizing gender-affirming hormone therapy. We also report on testosterone suppression, route (ie, subcutaneous vs intramuscular), and type of injectable estradiol ester as well as timing of blood draw relative to the most recent dose, where available.

Results: The data we reviewed suggest that the current guidelines, which recommend starting doses 2 to 10 mg weekly or 5 to 30 mg every 2 weeks of estradiol cypionate or valerate, are too high and likely lead to patients having supraphysiologic levels across much of their injection cycle.

Conclusions: The optimal starting dose for injectable estradiol remains unclear and whether it should differ for cypionate and valerate. Based on the data available, we suggest that clinicians start injectable estradiol cypionate or valerate via subcutaneous or intramuscular injections at a dose ≤5 mg weekly and then titrate accordingly to keep levels within guideline-recommended range. Future studies should assess timing of injections and subsequent levels more precisely across the injection cycle and between esters.

This paper notably also cited the present Transfeminine Science article as raising concerns about guideline-based dosing for injectable estradiol and potential health complications from these doses.

Aside from Micol Rothman herself, these reviews were also authored by other well-known experts in transgender health. For instance, two of the coauthors, Joshua Safer and Michael Irwig, were authors for the WPATH SOC8 hormone therapy chapter (WPATH SOC8 Full Contributor List). Additionally, Safer was one of the authors for the Endocrine Society’s transgender hormone therapy guidelines (Hembree et al., 2017). As such, it would appear that transgender medicine has finally started to seriously correct injectable estradiol dosing. This is a very important development. Now, the appropriate dosing and intervals of injectable estradiol will need to be more precisely established and the corrections will need to make their way into updated transgender hormone therapy guidelines and general clinical practice.

Update 5: Kariyawasam et al. (2024)

In March 2024, the following study of estradiol levels with different routes of estradiol in transfeminine people, including injectable estradiol, was published:

  • Kariyawasam, N. M., Ahmad, T., Sarma, S., & Fung, R. (2024). Comparison of Estrone/Estradiol Ratio and Levels in Transfeminine Individuals on Different Routes of Estradiol. Transgender Health, ahead of print. [DOI:10.1089/trgh.2023.0138]

The study stratified injectable estradiol doses into different dosing levels, accounted for timing of blood draws, and compared injectable estradiol to other estradiol routes. The other routes included oral estradiol, sublingual estradiol, and transdermal estradiol. The form of injectable estradiol used was estradiol valerate in dose groups including ≤4 mg/week (“low-dose”), >4 mg/week to ≤8 mg/week (“medium-dose”), and >8 mg/week (“high-dose”). In the study, this injectable estradiol regimen resulted in supraphysiological estradiol levels in the medium- to high-dose groups (>4 mg/week) and dramatically higher estradiol levels than with the other estradiol routes (Data). Median estradiol levels were reported in a subsequent paper as follows: “Figure 2 from the paper shows estradiol levels across the 3 groups. Although exact numbers are not given in this figure, we learned through correspondence with the authors that the low dose injection group [n=8] had a median level of 202.7 ± SD 232.6 pg/mL, the medium group [n=22] 465.2 ± SD 466.3 pg/mL, and the high group [n=3] 574.4 ± SD147.3 pg/mL (converted from SI units)” (Rothman et al., 2024b). Although the sample sizes for the different dose groups were small, this study, along with Herndon et al. (2023), provides some of the best clinical data on estradiol levels with injectable estradiol in transfeminine people that have so far been published.

Update 6: Patel et al. (2024)

In June 2024, the following open-access review discussing injectable estradiol in transfeminine people and calling for updated transgender health guidelines was published:

  • Patel, R., Korenman, S., Weimer, A., & Grock, S. (2024). A Call for Updates to Hormone Therapy Guidelines for Gender-Diverse Adults Assigned Male at Birth. Cureus, 16(6), e62262. [DOI:10.7759/cureus.62262] [PDF]

The following quote is the relevant excerpt on injectable estradiol from the review:

The current guideline-based dosing recommendations for estradiol vary considerably, which is problematic for clinicians and patients who rely on guidelines to initiate treatment. Most notably, the conversion rates between parenteral estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate vary drastically between the UCSF Guidelines for the Primary and Gender-Affirming Care of Transgender and Gender Nonbinary People (UCSF Guidelines) and The Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guidelines for Endocrine Treatment of Gender-Dysphoric/Gender-Incongruent Persons (the Endocrine Society Guidelines). The UCSF Guidelines indicate the conversion between estradiol valerate and cypionate to be as high as a 4:1 ratio [2], while the Endocrine Society Guidelines provide no dosing differentiations [1]. Herndon and colleagues demonstrated that the conversion between estradiol cypionate and estradiol valerate is closer to 1:1 [4]. Further equivalence studies are needed to clarify ideal dosing conversions.

The Endocrine Society Guidelines recommend titrating estradiol to 100-200 pg/mL [1]. The UCSF Guidelines recommend 2-4 mg daily as the starting dose for oral estradiol and 5 mg weekly for parenteral estradiol valerate [2]. The Endocrine Society Guidelines suggest oral estradiol 2-6 mg daily and parenteral estradiol 2- 10 mg weekly [1]. However, Chantrapanichkul et al. found that intramuscular injections of estradiol valerate greater than 5 mg weekly led to mean estradiol concentrations well above 200 pg/mL, while 4-5 mg of oral estradiol daily only led to minimum desired concentrations [5]. Similarly, Herndon et al. found that subcutaneous estradiol at a median dose of 3.75 mg per week led to a median estradiol level of 196 pg/mL [4]. Thus, current guideline-based dosing may lead providers to choose doses of injectable estradiol that would result in supratherapeutic serum estradiol levels. In light of these recent publications, it is clear that guideline-based dosing for estradiol needs updating. In our clinical experience, parenteral estradiol valerate at doses of 2-4 mg weekly typically leads to physiologic estradiol levels. Estradiol cypionate should likely be dosed in a 1:1 ratio with estradiol valerate until future data are obtained.

Lastly, while estradiol valerate and cypionate are only FDA-approved for intramuscular administration, many patients prefer subcutaneous administration. There are small studies that suggest the pharmacokinetics of intramuscular and subcutaneous estradiol are similar [4]. While the UCSF Guidelines comment on the use of subcutaneous estradiol, other guidelines should be updated to include this option for patients [2].

Supplementary Material

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\ No newline at end of file +An Informal Meta-Analysis of Estradiol Curves with Injectable Estradiol Preparations - Transfeminine Science Link

An Informal Meta-Analysis of Estradiol Curves with Injectable Estradiol Preparations

By Aly | First published July 16, 2021 | Last modified June 27, 2024

Abstract / TL;DR

Injectable estradiol preparations such as estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate in oil are frequently used as estrogens in transfeminine hormone therapy. However, there is little characterization of these preparations in transfeminine people and dosing recommendations by transgender health guidelines appear to be based on expert opinion rather than on clinical data. To help shed light on the properties of injectable estradiol and to better inform dosing considerations in transfeminine people, an informal meta-analysis of available clinical data on estradiol concentration–time curves with major injectable estradiol formulations was conducted. The included preparations were injectable estradiol benzoate in oil, estradiol valerate in oil, estradiol cypionate both in oil and as a suspension, estradiol enanthate in oil, estradiol undecylate in oil, and polyestradiol phosphate. The literature was searched for clinical concentration–time data with these injectable estradiol esters and these data were collected and analyzed. Meta-analysis consisted of data for each injectable estradiol preparation being processed and fit with pharmacokinetic models. Selected pharmacokinetic parameters were additionally determined and reported. The results of this work were discussed with regard to characteristics of injectable estradiol preparations like curve shapes, durations, estrogenic exposure, and variability between people and studies. Recommendations for injectable estradiol preparations by transgender health guidelines were also explored in light of the present results. Current guidelines recommend doses of these preparations that appear to be highly excessive with injection intervals that are too widely spaced. Based on the findings of the present meta-analysis, recommendations by guidelines should be reassessed. Finally, the fitted curves in this work were incorporated into an interactive web-based injectable estradiol simulator intended for use by transfeminine people and their medical providers to help guide therapeutic decisions.

Introduction

Estradiol is the main estrogen used in transfeminine hormone therapy and is available in a variety of different forms for use by different routes of administration. The most commonly employed forms are oral, sublingual, transdermal, and injectable preparations. Injectable estradiol preparations have been discontinued in many countries and hence are unavailable for use in transfeminine hormone therapy in many parts of the world, for instance in most of Europe (Glintborg et al., 2021). However, they are still used by many transfeminine people particularly in the United States and in the do-it-yourself (DIY) community. The most commonly used forms include estradiol valerate, estradiol cypionate, and estradiol enanthate all in oil. Injectable estradiol preparations have certain advantages over other estradiol forms that make them a popular choice for use in transfeminine hormone therapy. These include often lower cost, capacity to easily achieve higher estradiol levels that can be useful for testosterone suppression, less frequent administration, and theoretically reduced health risks relative to oral estradiol at equivalent doses due to the lack of the first pass with this route (Aly, 2020). The higher estradiol levels with injections are particularly useful for estradiol monotherapy, in which an antiandrogen is not used.

Clinically used injectable estradiol preparations are formulated not as estradiol but as estradiol esters. When injected into muscle or fat in oil solutions or crystalline aqueous suspensions, these estradiol esters form depots at the injection site from which they are slowly released. Subsequent to release, estradiol esters are rapidly metabolized into estradiol and hence act as prodrugs. When estradiol itself is given by intramuscular injection in an aqueous solution or oil solution, it is rapidly absorbed and has a very short duration. Due to having lipophilic esters, most clinically used injectable estradiol esters are more fat-soluble than estradiol (as measured by oil–water partition coefficient (P)) (Table). When these esters are administered as oil solutions by intramuscular or subcutaneous injection, their increased lipophilicity causes them to be released from the injection-site depot more slowly than estradiol and to therefore have longer durations. In the case of fatty acid esters, the longer the chain length of the ester—as in e.g. estradiol valerate (5 carbons) vs. estradiol enanthate (7 carbons) vs. estradiol undecylate (10 carbons)—the greater the fat solubility, the slower the rate of release from the depot, and the longer the time to peak levels and duration (Edkins, 1959; Sinkula, 1978; Chien, 1981; Kuhl, 2005; Kalicharan, 2017; Vhora et al., 2019). The durations of both injectable oil solutions and aqueous suspensions depend on the ester and its particular physicochemical properties, but the characteristics of these preparations are different and they work in distinct ways to produce their depot effects (Enever et al., 1983; Aly, 2019). The durations of oil solutions are dependent on the lipophilicity of the ester as well as oil vehicle, whereas the durations of aqueous suspensions depend on the properties of the ester crystal lattice as well as crystal sizes (Chien, 1981; Enever et al., 1983; Aly, 2019). The polymeric estradiol ester polyestradiol phosphate is more hydrophilic (water-soluble) than estradiol and works differently than other injectable estradiol preparations. Ιt is composed of many estradiol molecules linked together via phosphate esters (on average 13 molecules of estradiol per one molecule of polyestradiol phosphate) and has a prolonged duration due to slow cleavage into estradiol following injection. Estradiol esters are able to substantially prolong the duration of estradiol when used as injectables and these preparations have durations ranging from days to months depending on the ester and how it is formulated (Table).

There is very little in the way of research and review on the pharmacokinetics of injectable estradiol preparations in the transgender health literature. Transgender hormone therapy guidelines presently offer only brief descriptions and dosing recommendations that appear to be based mainly on expert opinion for this form of estradiol (e.g., Deutsch, 2016a; Hembree et al., 2017). Many studies assessing the pharmacokinetics and concentration–time profiles of injectable estradiol preparations have been published but are largely confined to cisgender women and men rather than transgender people. These studies are scattered throughout the literature and have not been comprehensively reviewed or analyzed. Some review material exists on the pharmacokinetics of injectable estradiol preparations for use in hormonal birth control and menopausal hormone therapy in cisgender women (e.g., Düsterberg & Nishino, 1982; Kuhl, 1986; Kuhl, 1990; Garza-Flores, 1994; Kuhl, 2005) and androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer in cisgender men (e.g., Gunnarsson & Norlén, 1988). However, these publications discuss only small selections of the available research. Data on repeated administration of injectable estradiol preparations are more rare but have also been published (e.g., Gooren et al., 1984 [Graph]; various others). Multi-dose simulation has been done previously for polyestradiol phosphate (Henriksson et al., 1999; Johansson & Gunnarsson, 2000). However, it has not been explored for other injectable estradiol preparations to date. In contrast to injectable estradiol, excellent review literature and simulation exists for injectable testosterone preparations (e.g., Behre, Oberpenning, & Nieschlag, 1990; Behre & Nieschlag, 1998; Behre et al., 2004; Nieschlag & Behre, 2010; Nieschlag & Behre, 2012).

In order to aid understanding of concentration–time profiles with injectable estradiol preparations, I’ve developed an interactive web-based injectable estradiol simulator for transfeminine people and their medical providers. During work on this simulator, it became apparent that there is substantial variability in estradiol levels and curve shapes between different studies even with the same injectable estradiol ester. The injectable estradiol simulator was originally designed to simulate curves from only a single well-known pharmacokinetic study that directly compared estradiol benzoate, estradiol valerate, and estradiol cypionate in oil (Oriowo et al., 1980 [Graph]). However, due to the considerable differences in estradiol levels and curves across studies, it was decided that relying on only one study for such a project would be untenable. Instead, for the simulations to be reasonably accurate to the available data, many studies would need to be incorporated. Including additional studies would also allow for inclusion of other injectable estradiol esters in the simulator. As a result, the present work—an informal meta-analysis of estradiol curves with injectable estradiol formulations—was conducted for the simulator project.

Methods

A literature search was performed to identify studies reporting clinical estradiol concentration–time data with major injectable estradiol formulations (Table 1). All of these preparations have been used in transfeminine hormone therapy at one time or another in different parts of the world, although only estradiol valerate in oil and estradiol cypionate in oil are widely used today. Some of the injectable preparations included have notably been discontinued. Acceptable data for the search included mean and individual estradiol concentration data and Cmax estradiol levels (mean peak estradiol levels of individual subjects at time Tmax). Databases like PubMed, Google Scholar, and WorldCat were searched using relevant keywords (e.g., estradiol ester names and variations thereof as well as major brand names). Publications with relevant information were catalogued for data collection. Only single-dose data and multi-dose data that allowed estradiol levels to return to baseline between doses (as in e.g. repeated once-monthly combined injectable contraceptives) were included. Studies were included regardless of the hypothalamic–pituitary–gonadal axis (HPG axis) status of the participants. The study selection criteria aimed to maximize data inclusion due to scarcity of data for several preparations. If however there were many studies for a specific preparation, studies with only 1 or 2 subjects were generally skipped due to the limited additional value that they would provide. When data were in figures in papers—as was generally the case—they were extracted from the graphs using WebPlotDigitizer.

Table 1: Major injectable estradiol formulations (ordered roughly from shortest- to longest-acting):

Estradiol esterAbbr.FormMajor brand names
Estradiol benzoateEBOil solutionProgynon-B
Estradiol valerateEVOil solutionDelestrogen, Mesigyna,a Progynon Depot
Estradiol cypionateECOil solutionDepo-Estradiol
  Aqueous suspensionbCyclofem,a Lunellea
Estradiol enanthateEEnOil solutionPerlutal,a Topasela
Estradiol undecylatecEUOil solutionDelestrec, Progynon Depot 100
Polyestradiol phosphatecPEPAqueous solutionEstradurin

a As combined injectable contraceptives also including a progestin (norethisterone enanthate (NETE), medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA), or dihydroxyprogesterone acetophenide (DHPA)). b Microcrystalline particle size. c No longer marketed.

Following their collection, data were processed, aggregated, and modeled. Data were adjusted for endogenous estradiol production and were normalized by dose. Adjustment for endogenous estradiol production was generally done via subtraction of baseline estradiol levels. In a number of cases however, subtraction of trough estradiol levels or of estradiol levels from a control group was required instead. Data were also weighted by sample size. In a handful of instances, certain missing information (e.g., time to peak levels, baseline levels, subject body weights) was filled in with reasonable assumptions to help maximize data inclusion. Data were processed in the form of mean estradiol curve data rather than individual-subject data (except for rare n=1 studies). The combined processed data from all studies for each injectable estradiol preparation were fit via least squares regression to one-, two-, and three-compartment pharmacokinetic models with first-order absorption and elimination that were obtained from the literature and other sources (e.g., Colburn, 1981; Wagner, 1993; Fisher & Shafer, 2007; Lixoft, 2008; Abuhelwa, Foster, & Upton, 2015; Certara, 2020). These models fit most curves from individual studies very well. Fitting the combined curve fits of all individual studies (as opposed to fitting all of the combined processed data directly) was additionally evaluated for each injectable estradiol preparation, and if it was feasible for the preparation and allowed for better fitting results, was employed instead. Fitting directly to the combined processed data has the effect of weighting individual studies by quantity of time points, whereas fitting the combined curve fits of studies eliminates this. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to help guide model selection for fitting of the preparations. Curve fitting was performed using the Python library Lmfit with the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. Cmax concentrations are a different form of data than mean curve estradiol concentration–time data, and for this reason, were not included in the fitting unless data were very limited for a given injectable estradiol preparation. Outlying data were also excluded from fitting in a number of instances and this allowed for improved curve fits with more uniform area-under-the-curve levels. The main criterion used for excluding curves was fit area-under-the-curve levels that deviated considerably from what was typical for the injectable estradiol preparations (generally less than about 50% of the average or greater than about 150% of the average).

A selection of pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated for each injectable estradiol preparation using the single-dose fit curves and compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses. These parameters included maximal or peak concentrations of estradiol after a single dose scaled to 5 mg (Cmax), time to maximal concentrations of estradiol after a single dose (Tmax), total area-under-the-curve concentrations of estradiol after a single dose (AUC0–∞), terminal elimination half-life after a single dose (t1/2), and the terminal 90% life after a single dose (t90%) (calculated as t1/2 × 3.322). In addition, selected pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated for simulated repeated administration of each injectable preparation at steady state with a dose and dose interval of 5 mg once every 7 days using the single-dose fit curves and compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses. These parameters included time to peak concentrations of estradiol (Tmax), peak and trough concentrations of estradiol (Cmax and Cmin, respectively), peak–trough difference (PTD; Cmax – Cmin), peak–trough ratio (PTR; Cmax ÷ Cmin), and integrated mean concentrations of estradiol (Cavg). Simulation of repeated administration was performed by stacking estradiol levels for multiple injections. Cmax and Tmax were defined and calculated in general as peak estradiol level and time to peak level of the fit mean curve as opposed to the mean peak level and mean time to peak level of individual subjects. This is because the latter would not be possible to compute as most studies reported only estradiol mean curve data. Pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated using relevant pharmacokinetic equations and, as a sanity check, were compared against those computed by PKSolver, a Microsoft Excel pharmacokinetics add-in program (Zhang et al., 2010).

Results

The figures in the subsequent sections show the original data from studies adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels and normalized to a common dose as well as the curve fits to the data (or alternatively the curve fits of the fits of the data depending on the preparation) for the included injectable estradiol preparations. Estradiol benzoate, estradiol cypionate in oil, and estradiol cypionate suspension were fit to the fits of all individual studies for these preparations, whereas estradiol enanthate, estradiol undecylate, and polyestradiol phosphate were fit directly to the combined processed data for these esters. In the case of estradiol valerate, the two fitting approaches gave nearly identical curves, and so fitting the combined processed original data was done for simplicity for this preparation. Cmax studies were excluded in the fitting for all preparations except estradiol enanthate, for which available estradiol concentration–time data were otherwise very limited. The data for the injectable estradiol preparations were generally fit best by a three-compartment pharmacokinetic model (Desmos). As a result, and for consistency, this model was used in the fitting of all preparations.

Estradiol Benzoate

Injectable estradiol benzoate has been extensively used in the past in scientific research, most notably in studies elucidating the function and dynamics of the HPG axis. One such use of estradiol benzoate has been the estrogen provocation test, a diagnostic test of HPG axis function. Due to its use in research, substantial estradiol concentration–time data with injectable estradiol benzoate exists. A total of 26 publications and concentration–time data for 355 individual injections were identified (Table 2).

Table 2: Studies of injectable estradiol benzoate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
G753Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women27.6 mgGeppert (1975); Leyendecker et al. (1975)
K7510Normal premenopausal women~0.15 mgKeye & Jaffe (1975)
S75a10Amenorrheic premenopausal women1 mgShaw et al. (1975)
S75b15Normal premenopausal women0.5 mgShaw, Butt, & London (1975)
S75b25Normal premenopausal women1.5 mgShaw, Butt, & London (1975)
S75b35Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgShaw, Butt, & London (1975)
L763Normal premenopausal women3 mgLeyendecker et al. (1976)
C7822Infertile anovulatory premenopausal women1 mgCanales et al. (1978)
S786Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgShaw (1978)
T7819Premenopausal women with hyperprolactinemia (n=12) and after prolactin normalization (n=7) (2 injections per subject for 7 of 12 subjects)1 mgTravaglini et al. (1978)
T7918Premenopausal women with hyperprolactinemia (n=9) given estradiol benzoate alone and then in combination with progesterone (2 injections per subject)1 mgTravaglini et al. (1979)
O8010Premenopausal women on a combined birth control pill5 mgOriowo et al. (1980)
C8114Lactating postpartum women (n=7) (2 injections per subject)3 mgCanales et al. (1981)
W8119Premenopausal women with prolactinomas and hyperprolactinemia1 mgWhite et al. (1981)
S822Men with XX male syndrome5 mgSchweikert et al. (1982)
B8310Normal premenopausal women (n=5) not on and then on danazol (2 injections per subject)5 mgBraun, Wildt, & Leyendecker (1983)
K8422Gonadectomized premenopausal women on oral combined hormone therapy1 mgKemeter et al. (1984)
V847Premenopausal women with alcoholism and cirrhosis or fatty liver disease5 mgVälimäki et al. (1984)
G8510Transfeminine people not on hormone therapy (n=5) and normal men (n=5)2 mgGoodman et al. (1985)
A8618Infertile ovulatory premenopausal women with transient hyperprolactinemia (n=9) and normal premenopausal women (n=9)~5 mgAisaka et al. (1986)
C8627Perimenopausal women with dysfunctional uterine bleeding2 mgCano et al. (1986)
M875Normal premenopausal women10 mgMessinis & Templeton (1987a); Messinis & Templeton (1987b)
S8711Normal premenopausal women1 mgSumioki (1987)
B8920Infertile ovulatory premenopausal women (n=10) not on and then on a GnRH agonist (2 injections per subject)2 mgBider et al. (1989)
V9349Premenopausal women on a GnRH agonist with gynecological disorders (n=15) or undergoing fertility treatment (n=6) (2–3 injections per subject)2.5 mgVizziello et al. (1993)
E0625Premenopausal women with premenstrual mood disturbances (n=13) and normal premenopausal women (n=12)~2.5 mgEriksson et al. (2006)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

A number of studies were excluded from fitting due to much higher or lower area-under-the-curve levels than average. A couple of studies were omitted from the meta-analysis as they only reported total estrogen levels rather than estradiol levels with estradiol benzoate (Akande, 1974; Weiss, Nachtigall, & Ganguly, 1976). Two studies were omitted due partly to being very old and using very early and inaccurate blood tests (Varangot & Cedard, 1957; Ittrich & Pots, 1965 [Graph]). The processed original data and fit of fits curve for estradiol benzoate are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit of fit curves (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol benzoate in oil solution over a period of 7 days. Each curve was adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 5 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. Following this, the combined fit curves of the individual studies were fit using the same pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol benzoate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Valerate

Studies with curve data on injectable estradiol valerate come from its use in menopausal hormone therapy and other therapeutic indications for estrogens, its use in combined injectable contraceptives, and use in scientific research. A total of 28 publications and concentration–time data for 309 individual injections were identified for estradiol valerate (Table 3).

Table 3: Studies of injectable estradiol valerate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
S717512Premenopausal women with menstrual migraine (n=10) and amenorrheic/postmenopausal women with history of menstrual migraine (n=2)5⁠–⁠20 mgSomerville (1971); Somerville (1972a); Somerville (1972b); Somerville (1972c); Somerville (1975)
G753Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women26.2 mgGeppert (1975); Leyendecker et al. (1975)
V75a4Unknown/not described10 mgVermeulen (1975)
V75b2Unknown/not described4 mgVermeulen (1975)
O809Premenopausal women on a combined birth control pill5 mgOriowo et al. (1980)
R806Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women10 mgRauramo et al. (1980); Rauramo, Punnonen, & Grönroos (1981)
B8210Normal premenopausal women with bromocriptine administration20 mgBlackwell, Boots, & Potter (1982)
D833Normal postmenopausal women4 mgDüsterberg, & Wendt (1983)
A857Normal premenopausal women5 mgAedo et al. (1985)
D852Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women4 mgDüsterberg & Nishino (1982); Düsterberg, Schmidt-Gollwitzer, & Hümpel (1985)
R877Normal young men10 mgReimann et al. (1987)
S87a8Normal premenopausal women5 mgSang et al. (1987)
S87b8Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgSang et al. (1987)
S87c20Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women10 mgSherwin et al. (1987); Sherwin (1988)
G8854Normally cycling transmasculine people not on hormone therapy (n=31), transfeminine people not on hormone therapy (n=14), and gonadally intact transfeminine people on oral estrogen therapy (n=9)10 mgGoh & Ratnam (1988)
G9012Normally cycling transmasculine people not on hormone therapy10 mgGoh & Ratnam (1990)
G94a8Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
G94c5Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
J949Normal young men10 mgJilma et al. (1994)
G985Men with Klinfelter’s syndrome10 mgGoh & Lee (1998)
G0217Normal postmenopausal women5 mgGöretzlehner et al. (2002)
K0610Normal menopausal women2 mgKerdelhué et al. (2006)
V1132Normal young men5 mgValle Alvarez (2011)
S1248Normal postmenopausal women (n=24) given Estradiol-Depot 10 mg and then Progynon Depot-10 (2 injections per subject)10 mgSchug, Donath, & Blume (2012)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

A few of these studies were excluded from fitting due generally to much higher or lower area-under-the-curve levels than average or due to being Cmax data. One study was omitted as it only reported estrone levels rather than estradiol levels (Ibrahim, 1996). Another study was not included due to being in pregnant women with concomitant pregnancy termination (Garner & Armstrong, 1977). One last study was omitted due partly to being very old and using very early and inaccurate blood tests (Ittrich & Pots, 1965 [Graph]). The processed original data and fit curve for estradiol valerate are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol valerate in oil solution over a period of 30 days. Curves were adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 10 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. Fitting of the combined fits of individual studies for this preparation was explored but gave a nearly identical overall curve, so the overall fit curve for the combined processed original data was used for simplicity for this preparation. The original data from the studies for estradiol valerate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Cypionate Oil

Estradiol cypionate in oil is used in menopausal hormone therapy and for other estrogen indications. However, its use has been more limited relative to other injectable estradiol preparations, like estradiol valerate. Only a handful of studies with relevant data were identified for estradiol cypionate in oil. This included 4 publications and estradiol concentration–time data for 49 individual injections (Table 4).

Table 4: Studies of injectable estradiol cypionate in oil (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
R736Hypogonadal adolescent girls1⁠–⁠2 mgRosenfield et al. (1973); Rosenfield & Fang (1974)
B80~5Normal premenopausal women10 mgBuckman et al. (1980)
O8010Premenopausal women on a combined birth control pill5 mgOriowo et al. (1980)
L9628Postmenopausal women with history of hormonal migraine (n=16) and without (n=12) initially on oral estrogen therapy (discontinued upon injection)5 mgLichten et al. (1996)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

No curves were excluded from fitting in the case of this preparation. The processed original data and fit of fit curves for estradiol cypionate in oil are shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit of fit curves (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol cypionate in oil solution over a period of 30 days. Each curve was adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 5 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. Following this, the combined fit curves of the individual studies were fit using the same pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol cypionate in oil are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Cypionate Suspension

Estradiol cypionate suspension has been used exclusively in combined injectable contraceptives. For this reason, many relatively high quality pharmacokinetic studies with this injectable preparation have been conducted. A total of 9 publications and estradiol concentration–time data for 131 individual injections were identified for estradiol cypionate suspension (Table 5).

Table 5: Studies of injectable estradiol cypionate suspension (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
F8211Normal premenopausal women5 mgFotherby et al. (1982)
A858Normal premenopausal women5 mgAedo et al. (1985)
G87a7Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87b8Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87c7Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87d8Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87e8Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
G87f6Normal premenopausal women2.5 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1987); Garza-Flores (1994)
Z989Normal premenopausal women5 mgZhou et al. (1998)
R9914Healthy surgically sterile premenopausal women5 mgRahimy & Ryan (1999); Rahimy, Ryan, & Hopkins (1999)
S11a15Normal premenopausal women5 mgSierra-Ramírez et al. (2011)
S11bb15Normal premenopausal women5 mgSierra-Ramírez et al. (2011)
T1315Normal premenopausal women5 mgThurman et al. (2013)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects. b By subcutaneous injection rather than intramuscular injection.

One of these studies used subcutaneous injection instead of the usual intramuscular injection but the resulting curve was very similar to the curve for intramuscular injection in the same study (Sierra-Ramírez et al., 2011 [Graph]). Several Cmax studies were excluded from fitting for this preparation. One pharmacokinetic study only measured estradiol cypionate levels rather than estradiol levels and hence was not included (Martins et al., 2019 [Graph]). The processed original data and fit of fit curves for estradiol cypionate suspension are shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit of fits curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular (or in one case subcutaneous) injection of a microcrystalline aqueous suspension of estradiol cypionate over a period of 30 days. Each curve was adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 5 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. Following this, the combined fit curves of the individual studies were fit using the same pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol cypionate suspension are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Enanthate

Estradiol enanthate has been used exclusively in combined injectable contraceptives. Several pharmacokinetic studies have been conducted with it because of this. A total of 7 publications and concentration–time data for 270 individual injections were identified for estradiol enanthate (Table 6).

Table 6: Studies of injectable estradiol enanthate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
R86a1Normal premenopausal woman5 mgRecio et al. (1986)
R86b1Normal premenopausal woman10 mgRecio et al. (1986)
W863Normal postmenopausal women10 mgWiemeyer et al. (1986); Wiemeyer et al. (1987)
S8814Normal premenopausal women10 mgSchiavon et al. (1988)
G8910Normal premenopausal women10 mgGarza-Flores et al. (1989)
G94a9Normal premenopausal women10 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
G94b9Normal premenopausal women5 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
G94c7Normal premenopausal women10 mgGarza-Flores (1994)
M95216Normal premenopausal women10 mgMartinez (1995)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

Of the available data, 216 of the injections were from a single study and mainly included only Cmax levels. Wiemeyer et al. (1986) was excluded from fitting due to having unusually high area-under-the-curve levels with a small sample size (n=3). Because of the scarcity of estradiol concentration–time data available for estradiol enanthate, Cmax studies were included in the fitting for this preparation. The processed original data and fit curve for estradiol enanthate are shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol enanthate in oil solution over a period of 30 days. Curves were adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 10 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol enanthate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Estradiol Undecylate

Estradiol undecylate was formerly used in the treatment of prostate cancer and in menopausal hormone therapy as well as for other estrogen therapeutic indications. However, it was discontinued many years ago and is no longer used today. Nonetheless, estradiol undecylate is of significant historical interest as an injectable estradiol preparation. A total of 4 publications and estradiol concentration–time data for 7 individual injections were identified for estradiol undecylate (Table 7).

Table 7: Studies of injectable estradiol undecylate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
G753Gonadectomized/postmenopausal women32.3 mgGeppert (1975)/Leyendecker et al. (1975) [Graph]
V754Unknown/not described100 mgVermeulen (1975)/Vermeulen (1977) [Graph]

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

Unfortunately, the identified data were of very low quality, with small sample sizes and considerable variations in estradiol levels. Moreover, estradiol undecylate is a very long-acting injectable estradiol ester with a duration measured in months, and the follow up in these studies only went to about 2 weeks post-injection. For these reasons, it was not possible to fit the data for estradiol undecylate in a reasonably accurate way—as suggested by area-under-the-curve estradiol levels that were only around one-third those of the other non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters. Limited multi-dose hormone concentration–time data also exist for estradiol undecylate, but these data could not be incorporated (Jacobi & Altwein, 1979 [Graph]; Jacobi et al., 1980 [Graph]; Derra, 1981 [Graph]). The processed original data and fit curve for estradiol undecylate are shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of estradiol undecylate in oil solution over a period of 90 days. Curves were adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 50 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for estradiol undecylate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Polyestradiol Phosphate

Polyestradiol phosphate has been used primarily in the treatment of prostate cancer but has also been used for estrogen therapeutic indications like treatment of breast cancer and menopausal hormone therapy. While this injectable estradiol preparation has been used widely in the past, it appears to have recently been discontinued. All of the identified studies with estradiol concentration–time data on polyestradiol phosphate were in men with prostate cancer. A total of 11 publications and concentration–time data for 114 individual injections were identified for polyestradiol phosphate (Table 8).

Table 8: Studies of injectable polyestradiol phosphate (Spreadsheet; Plotly):

StudynaSubjectsDoseReference(s)
J7616Men with prostate cancer160 mgJönsson (1976)
L7910Men with prostate cancer80 mgLeinonen et al. (1979)
L808Men with prostate cancer80 mgLeinonen (1980)
J824Men with prostate cancer80 mgJacobi (1982)
N87a3Men with prostate cancer80 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87b3Men with prostate cancer160 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87c3Men with prostate cancer240 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87d4Men with prostate cancer80 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87e4Men with prostate cancer160 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
N87f4Men with prostate cancer240 mgNorlén (1987); Gunnarsson & Norlén (1988)
S88a9Men with prostate cancer160 mgStege et al. (1988); Stege et al. (1989)
S88b9Men with prostate cancer240 mgStege et al. (1988); Stege et al. (1989)
S88c9Men with prostate cancer320 mgStege et al. (1988); Stege et al. (1989)
S9611Men with prostate cancer320 mgStege et al. (1996)
H9917Men with prostate cancer240 mgHenriksson et al. (1999); Johansson & Gunnarsson (2000)

a Total number of injections, not total number of subjects.

A few older and strongly outlying studies were excluded from the fitting. The processed original data and fit curve for polyestradiol phosphate are shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Published estradiol concentration–time curves and fit curve (thick black or white line) with a single intramuscular injection of an aqueous solution of polyestradiol phosphate over a period of 90 days. The graph was clipped to maximum estradiol levels of 600 pg/mL (~2,200 pmol/L) for better viewability. Curves were adjusted for endogenous estradiol levels, normalized to a dose of 160 mg, and fit with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model. The original data from the studies for polyestradiol phosphate are also provided elsewhere (Spreadsheet; Plotly).

Other Injectable Estradiol Preparations

A number of clinical studies with estradiol concentration–time data for other injectable estradiol preparations were also identified during literature search:

These preparations were not included in the present meta-analysis due to their relative obscurity and the limited data available for them. In addition, there were concerns about fitting the used pharmacokinetic models to the formulations with multiple estradiol components and to the microsphere formulations.

No estradiol concentration–time data were identified for certain other injectable estradiol forms of interest, like unesterified estradiol in aqueous solution, estradiol benzoate as a microcrystalline aqueous suspension (Agofollin Depot; Ovocyclin M), or estradiol benzoate butyrate/dihydroxyprogesterone acetophenide in oil (Redimen, Soluna, Unijab) (another lesser-known combined injectable contraceptive).

All Injectable Estradiol Preparations Together

Figure 8 shows the curve fits for all of the injectable estradiol preparations scaled to a single dose of 5 mg (or equivalent) together in the same figure. The dose for polyestradiol phosphate was scaled to be about 6.5 times higher than the other injectable estradiol preparations in order to make it roughly equivalent to them in terms of total estradiol exposure. This was because polyestradiol phosphate was found to produce much lower area-under-the-curve estradiol levels than the other injectable estradiol preparations (see the Discussion section). Estradiol undecylate was not included in Figure 8 as a decent fit curve could not be obtained for it due to the very limited data available for this preparation.

Figure 8: Curve fits of published estradiol concentration–time data with different injectable estradiol preparations by intramuscular injection scaled to equivalent doses and plotted over a period of 20 days in a single combined graph. Polyestradiol phosphate is scaled to a 6.5-fold higher dose that is roughly equivalent to that for the other esters as it gave total estradiol levels that were around 6 or 7 times lower than the other esters at the same dose. An alternative version of this figure without estradiol benzoate and with the x-axis spanning 30 days is also provided (Graph).

Figure 9 shows simulated curves at steady state for repeated administration of all of the injectable estradiol preparations scaled to a dose of 5 mg (or equivalent) once every 7 days. As with the previous figure, the dose for polyestradiol phosphate was scaled to be about 6.5 times higher than the other injectable estradiol preparations and estradiol undecylate was not included in the figure.

Figure 9: Simulated curves at steady state for repeated administration of different injectable estradiol preparations by intramuscular injection scaled to equivalent doses and plotted over three injection cycles. This simulation was based on the fit curves of the published single-dose estradiol concentration–time data reported in this meta-analysis. Polyestradiol phosphate is scaled to a 6.5-fold higher dose that is roughly equivalent to that for the other esters as it gave total estradiol levels that were around 6 or 7 times lower than the other esters at the same dose. An alternative version of this figure without estradiol benzoate is also provided (Graph).

For more simulated estradiol concentration–time curves with repeated injections of these injectable estradiol preparations, please see the accompanying interactive web simulator.

Selected Pharmacokinetic Parameters

The table below shows selected pharmacokinetic parameters for the fit curves of the included injectable estradiol preparations (Table 9). Estradiol undecylate was not included in the table due to the lack of data needed to achieve a decent curve fit for this preparation and the uncertainty of its parameters.

Table 9: Selected pharmacokinetic parameters for estradiol with injectable estradiol preparations following a single 5 mg dose by intramuscular injection:

Estradiol preparationTmax
(d)
Cmax
(pg/mL)
t1/2
(d)
t90%
(d)
AUC0–∞
(pg•d/mL)
Estradiol benzoate in oil0.659711.23.92410
Estradiol valerate in oil2.12953.09.91886
Estradiol cypionate oil4.31556.722.32150
Estradiol cypionate suspension1.22415.116.92096
Estradiol enanthate in oil6.51604.615.12183
Polyestradiol phosphate a18.03428.494.22117

a Scaled instead to a single 32.5 mg injection (6.5 times higher dose than with the other esters).

The table below shows selected pharmacokinetic parameters for simulated curves at steady state with repeated administration of the included injectable estradiol preparations (Table 10). As with the previous table, estradiol undecylate was not included.

Table 10: Selected pharmacokinetic parameters for estradiol with injectable estradiol preparations with simulated repeated administration of 5 mg once every 7 days by intramuscular injection:

Estradiol preparationTmax
(d)
Cmax
(pg/mL)
Cmin
(pg/mL)
Peak–trough
diff. (pg/mL)
Peak–trough
ratio
Cavg
(pg/mL)
Estradiol benzoate in oil0.649902996235344
Estradiol valerate in oil1.93841422422.7269
Estradiol cypionate oil3.1339262771.3307
Estradiol cypionate suspension1.04041892142.1299
Estradiol enanthate in oil4.0329288411.1312
Polyestradiol phosphate a3.230429951.0302

a Scaled instead to repeated injections of 32.5 mg every 7 days (6.5 times higher dose than with the other esters).

Terminal half-life (t1/2) is the time for the concentration of estradiol to decrease by 50% after pseudo-equilibrium of distribution has been reached—not the time required for half of an administered dose of the estradiol ester to be eliminated (Toutain & Bousquet-Mélou, 2004). It is calculated using only the terminal portion of a concentration–time curve, without the absorption or distribution phases influencing it (Toutain & Bousquet-Mélou, 2004). Due to flip–flop kinetics with depot injectables and the very short blood half-life of estradiol (~0.5–2 hours), what is being described by the terminal half-life in the case of depot estradiol injectables is not actually elimination of estradiol from blood but rather is the absorption of estradiol from the injection-site depot (Toutain & Bousquet-Mélou, 2004; Yáñez et al., 2011).

Discussion

Data Quality, Limitations, and Variability Between Studies

The accuracies of the curve fits for the different included injectable estradiol preparations are limited by the available data for these preparations. The quantity and quality of data are variable among these preparations. In some cases, such as with estradiol valerate in oil and estradiol cypionate in suspension, the data are overall quite good. In other instances, such as with estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate in oil, the available data are more limited. There was undersampling of certain parts of the concentration–time curve with some preparations, for instance estradiol benzoate in oil (the early curve), estradiol enanthate in oil (much of the curve), and polyestradiol phosphate (the late curve). In the case of estradiol undecylate in oil, the available data for this preparation weren’t adequate to achieve a decent curve fit at all. The fit curves and calculated pharmacokinetic parameters of the included injectable estradiol preparations should be interpreted with the imperfect data in mind. For example, the curve shapes and pharmacokinetic parameters for the different preparations should not be taken as precise determinations in most cases but instead as rough estimates that would no doubt change with more and better data. Indeed, the fits and pharmacokinetic parameters were often noticeably sensitive to the influences of individual studies. Modeling decisions, such as the choice of pharmacokinetic model, or whether to fit directly to the combined processed data versus to the fits of individual studies, also yielded significantly different curve fits as well as calculated pharmacokinetic parameters.

Due to scarcity of data for several injectable estradiol preparations, the study selection criteria maximized data inclusion in order to allow for better curve fits at the risk of including potentially less reliable data. As examples, studies were included regardless of the status of the HPG axis of the participants, and Cmax data were included in the fitting if data were very limited. In the case of HPG axis state, studies with cycling women may result in greater error due to more variable levels of endogenous estradiol. Moreover, acute high levels of estradiol can induce a surge in luteinizing hormone levels after several days in gonadally intact women, and this may cause a delayed bump in estradiol levels (Wiki). One of the more overt instances of this can be seen in a study of estradiol benzoate in such women (Shaw, 1978 [Graph]). Many if not most of the included studies with estradiol benzoate involved women with intact HPG axes, whereas studies of this sort were uncommon with the other preparations. In the case of Cmax data, these data when Cmax corresponds to the mean of individual peaks are a different type of data than the peak of the mean curve of all individuals. Cmax levels can differ in both magnitude and timing compared to the mean curve peak (e.g., Oriowo et al., 1980 [Graph]; Rahimy, Ryan, & Hopkins, 1999). This is because for instance not all individuals peak at the same time and this variability in time to peak normally serves to dilute peak levels for the mean curve when compared to individual maximal concentrations. However, Cmax levels are in any case generally in the vicinity of the mean curve peak. While Cmax levels were excluded in the fitting for most injectable estradiol preparations, they were included in the case of estradiol enanthate. This was because the available mean and individual estradiol curve data were very limited for this specific preparation, and inclusion of Cmax data allowed for improved fitting in spite of its limitations. Lastly, some of the included data was once-monthly multi-dose, and research with once-monthly estradiol enanthate-containing combined injectable contraceptives has found that the time to peak levels may shift with repeated long-term use (Schiavon et al., 1988; Garza-Flores, 1994).

There was considerable variability between studies in terms of estradiol levels and concentration–time curve shapes with the same injectable estradiol preparation. The reasons for the large variability across studies are not fully clear. In any case, there are many potential factors that may contribute to this variability. These include preparation- and injection-related factors like formulation (e.g., oil vehicle, other components and excipients, concentration, particle size), injection volume, site of injection (e.g., buttocks, thigh, upper arm), injection technique (e.g., force of injection—and resulting depot droplet dimensions), and syringe dead space. They additionally include various subject- and research-related variables like differing blood-testing methodology, differing sample characteristics (e.g., age, weight, gender, ethnicity, physical activity, HPG axis state), and sampling error (Sinkula, 1978; Chien, 1981; Minto et al., 1997; Larsen & Larsen, 2009; Larsen et al., 2009; Florence, 2010; Larsen, Thing, & Larsen, 2012; Kalicharan, 2017). Older studies, which used potentially less accurate blood tests and tended to have smaller numbers of subjects, seemed to particularly add to the variability between studies. These studies may represent less reliable data than more recent research with larger sample sizes. The exclusion criteria helped to remove outliers for the different injectable estradiol preparations however. This meta-analysis does not take into account the potential factors underlying the variability between studies. To do so would be difficult, as in many cases information on these variables is not provided in individual studies and research quantifying their precise influences and relative importances is limited.

It is in any case known from other studies that different oil vehicles are absorbed at different rates from the injection site (Svendsen & Aaes‐Jørgensen, 1979; Schultz et al., 1998; Larsen et al., 2001) and can result in different concentration–time curve shapes (Ballard, 1978 [Excerpt]; Knudsen, Hansen, & Larsen, 1985). This is thought to be due to differences in oil lipophilicity and depot release rates. Viscosity of oils has also been hypothesized to potentially influence rate of depot escape (Schug, Donath, & Blume, 2012). However, research so far has not supported this hypothesis (Larsen & Larsen, 2009; Larsen, Thing, & Larsen, 2012). Oil vehicles can vary with injectable estradiol preparations even for the same estradiol ester. For instance, pharmaceutical estradiol valerate is formulated in sesame oil, castor oil, or sunflower oil depending on the preparation (Table). It is notable however that these three oils have similar lipophilicities (Table). On the other hand, homebrewed injectable estradiol preparations used by DIY transfeminine people often employ medium-chain triglyceride (MCT) oil as the oil vehicle. This oil (in the proprietary form of Viscoleo) has notably been found to be much more rapidly absorbed than conventional oils like sesame oil and castor oil in animals (Svendsen & Aaes‐Jørgensen, 1979; Schultz et al., 1998; Larsen et al., 2001). In addition, although based on very limited data, MCT oil has been found to give spikier and shorter-lasting depot injectable curves in humans (Knudsen, Hansen, & Larsen, 1985). As such, injectable estradiol preparations using MCT oil as the vehicle may have differing and less favorable concentration–time curve shapes than pharmaceutical injectable estradiol products. Other excipients, like benzyl alcohol, as well as factors like injection site and volume, have additionally been found to influence pharmacokinetic properties with depot injectables (Minto et al., 1997; Kalicharan, Schot, & Vromans, 2016). Excipients besides oil vehicle also vary by formulation (Table).

An implication of the variability between studies is that there is not a single estradiol concentration–time curve for a given injectable estradiol preparation but rather there are many, with these curves determined by variables such as formulation, dose/administration, and subject characteristics, among others. Hence, the curve fits determined in this meta-analysis represent only an estimation of the most typical and hence likely case, but the true curve for a preparation in a given context may be quite different.

Fitting all studies for a given injectable estradiol preparation individually first, and then fitting the fits of these studies, allowed for improved curve fits relative to directly fitting all of the combined processed original data for the preparation. The latter approach has limitations in that it has the effect of inherently weighting individual studies by quantity of time points (resulting in studies with greater time sampling having greater influence on the fit). Additionally, and more problematically, this approach can lead to distortions in curve shape due to different studies sampling different portions of the curve to differing extents in conjunction with systematic differences in curves between these studies. These are problems that fitting the fits of individual studies instead can solve. However, it is not possible to fit all individual studies, as some studies have limited time sampling and curve characterization which precludes fitting them appropriately. Cmax data are an example of this, which on their own cannot be fit properly. As such, it was not possible to fit the fits of the individual studies for all injectable estradiol preparations. Consequently, the fitting approach in this regard was not the same across esters, with some fit instead directly to the combined processed original data (e.g., estradiol enanthate, polyestradiol phosphate).

In spite of the various limitations of this work, aggregated analysis and modeling with injectable estradiol preparations has not previously been done. This informal meta-analysis provides among the most detailed insight into estradiol levels and curve shapes with these preparations available to date.

Durations and Curve Shapes

The curve shapes of non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters in oil relate strongly to lipophilicity. The more lipophilic the ester, the lower the peak levels and the more protracted the estradiol concentration–time curve. Accordingly, estradiol benzoate, one of the least lipophilic estradiol esters, has one of the spikiest curves and shortest durations, whereas more lipophilic estradiol esters, like estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate, have comparatively flatter curves with delayed peaks and longer durations.

Duration of Estradiol Valerate

The estradiol concentration–time curve for injectable estradiol valerate in the well-known Oriowo et al. (1980) [Graph] study is notably spikier and shorter-lasting than the overall curve for estradiol valerate in this meta-analysis. On the other hand, the overall curve for injectable estradiol valerate in this meta-analysis was similar to (and considerably influenced by) the curves from several relatively recent and presumably better-quality studies of this injectable estradiol ester (e.g., Göretzlehner et al., 2002; Valle Alvarez, 2011; Schug, Donath, & Blume, 2012). It’s noteworthy that Oriowo et al. (1980) used a peanut oil-based formulation of estradiol valerate that differed from pharmaceutical injectable estradiol valerate preparations, which generally use sesame oil or castor oil as the carrier (as well as other excipients) (Table). This may have influenced the curve shape of estradiol valerate in Oriowo et al. (1980). The study also had a small sample size relative to the more recent studies (n=9 versus n=17, n=32, and n=24×2, respectively). Based on the newer and overall data, estradiol valerate appears to have a curve that is noticeably flatter and more prolonged than that suggested by Oriowo et al. (1980).

Duration of Estradiol Cypionate in Oil versus Estradiol Enanthate

Available estradiol concentration–time data for injectable estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate in oil are more limited than with several of the other injectable estradiol preparations, and no direct comparisons of these two preparations exist at present. Based on some of the available literature on these injectable estradiol esters, most notably discussion by Oriowo et al. (1980) and a review of the pharmacokinetics of combined injectable contraceptives (Garza-Flores, 1994 [Graph]), it seemed that the duration of estradiol enanthate in oil was longer than that of estradiol cypionate in oil. However, this was based on limited research from separate and hence indirectly comparative studies of these esters. The estradiol cypionate in oil data from the relevant Garza-Flores (1994) figure was based on Oriowo et al. (1980) [Graph], and there are reasons to be cautious about relying on these data alone. The main concern is that curve shapes with the same injectable estradiol preparation can vary considerably across studies, as the present meta-analysis has shown. The reasons for this have yet to be fully clarified as already discussed, but among other factors may include varying formulations across studies of the same injectable estradiol ester. It is notable in this regard that Oriowo et al. (1980) used a formulation of estradiol cypionate that differs from conventional pharmaceutical estradiol cypionate in oil preparations—specifically, the study used a peanut oil-based formulation (with few other specifics) rather than the cottonseed oil-based preparation employed in marketed pharmaceutical formulations (Table). The study also had a somewhat small sample size (n=10) and may have had significant sampling error. Hence, single studies, perhaps particularly Oriowo et al. (1980), should be interpreted cautiously.

A small but interesting pharmacokinetic study which directly compared injectable testosterone cypionate (n=6) and testosterone enanthate (n=6) both in oil is relevant to the topic in question. This study found that equivalent doses of these testosterone esters using otherwise identical formulations produced virtually identical testosterone concentration–time curves (Schulte-Beerbühl & Nieschlag, 1980 [Graph]). The findings of this study are consistent with the fact that the lipophilicities of testosterone cypionate and testosterone enanthate (as measured by predicted log P) are very similar when directly compared (e.g., 5.1 vs. 5.11 with ALOGPS, 6.29 vs. 6.11 with ChemAxon logP, and 6.4 vs. 6.3 with XLogP3, respectively (Table). This of course is of importance as lipophilicity is thought to be the key factor determining the release kinetics of oil-based depot injectables (Sinkula, 1978; Shah, 2007; Larsen & Larsen, 2009; Larsen, Thing, & Larsen, 2012; Shahiwala, Mehta, & Momin, 2018). Analogously similar lipophilicities can be seen when comparing estradiol cypionate and estradiol enanthate, which employ the same ester moieties (e.g., predicted log P values of 6.47 vs. 6.45 with ALOGPS and 7.1 vs. 7.0 with XLogP3, respectively) (Table). Hence, on a theoretical level, injectable estradiol cypionate and estradiol enanthate, like injectable testosterone cypionate and testosterone enanthate, might be expected to produce very similar curves—at least provided all other variables, such as formulation, are held constant.

The present meta-analysis found that the overall estradiol curve for estradiol cypionate in oil was significantly less spikey and more prolonged than that observed in Oriowo et al. (1980). It is noteworthy in this regard that all of the other studies included for estradiol cypionate in oil specifically employed pharmaceutical Depo-Estradiol and that the overall curve for this preparation appears to be more consistent with its licensed injection interval for use in menopausal hormone therapy (1–5 mg once every 3–4 weeks) (Depo-Estradiol Label). Moreover, this meta-analysis found that injectable estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate in oil had fairly similar and comparably flat and prolonged estradiol concentration–time curves. However, estradiol cypionate in oil appeared to peak earlier than estradiol enanthate, while estradiol enanthate was eliminated more rapidly than estradiol cypionate in oil in the terminal portion of the curve. In any case, the available concentration–time data for these preparations are limited, and the present work is not able to determine whether these estradiol esters have truly differing pharmacokinetic properties, as the apparent differences between the curves for these preparations may simply be due to statistical error. Taken together, estradiol cypionate in oil may have a less spikey and longer-lasting curve than that implied by Oriowo et al. (1980), and estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate may have more similar curves than has been previously assumed.

Curve Shape of Estradiol Cypionate Suspension

While estradiol cypionate as an aqueous suspension is a relatively long-lasting injectable estradiol preparation similarly to estradiol cypionate in oil and estradiol enanthate in oil, it seems to differ in the shape of its estradiol concentration–time curve from these preparations. Estradiol cypionate as a suspension has a curve that appears to peak significantly earlier than estradiol cypionate in oil and other longer-acting oil-based injectable estradiol preparations. This might relate to the differing mechanisms of depot action and unique properties of injectable aqueous suspensions (Aly, 2019). In line with this notion, injectable medroxyprogesterone acetate suspension (Depo-Provera) also appears to peak rapidly despite having a very long duration (longer durations tending to be associated with delayed peaks in the case of oil-based depot injectables) (Graphs). Although aqueous suspensions generally last longer than oil solutions as injectables (Enever et al., 1983; Aly, 2019), this is not always the case, and estradiol cypionate suspension interestingly seems to be shorter-acting than estradiol cypionate in oil.

Estradiol Exposure and Potency

The average estradiol levels with the non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters when scaled to a dose and dosing interval of 5 mg every 7 days were around 300 pg/mL (~1,100 pmol/L). For comparison, in premenopausal cisgender women, estradiol production is on average about 200 μg/day (or 6 mg per month/cycle) and mean estradiol levels are around 100 pg/mL (~370 pmol/L) (Aly, 2019). After adjusting for the molecular weight of the ester, the estradiol levels for a given dose of non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters are in fairly close agreement with the estradiol levels for an equal quantity of estradiol produced endogenously by the ovaries in premenopausal cisgender women (very roughly around 1.2 mg estradiol per 7 days for injectable estradiol esters and 1.4 mg estradiol per 7 days for ovarian production to achieve average integrated estradiol levels of around 100 pg/mL). The preceding is in accordance with the fact that injectable estradiol valerate has been reported to have approximately 100% bioavailability (with this being less characterized but likely also the case for the other non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters) (Düsterberg & Nishino, 1982; Seibert & Günzel, 1994).

Although non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters have differing estradiol concentration–time curve shapes, they all appear to achieve fairly similar area-under-the-curve levels of estradiol when compared to one another. This is in accordance with the fact that differences in molecular weight and hence estradiol content with the different estradiol esters are fairly minor (all of the assessed non-polymeric esters range from 62 to 76% of that of estradiol in terms of estradiol content, and all but estradiol undecylate are in the range of 69 to 76%) (Table). The appearance of differences in area-under-the-curve levels of estradiol in the present meta-analysis is probably just due to statistical error, and true differences cannot be established by this meta-analysis. An implication of the similar area-under-the-curve estradiol levels with the different non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters is that these preparations can all be expected to deliver a roughly comparable amount of estradiol for the same dose.

On the other hand, the polymeric ester polyestradiol phosphate appears to produce around 6- to 7-fold lower area-under-the-curve and average estradiol levels than non-polymeric estradiol esters. This suggests that the estradiol in polyestradiol phosphate is not 100% bioavailable, and is supported by the fact that this ester is used clinically at substantially higher dosages than other injectable estradiol esters (40–320 mg/month), even for the same indications such as menopausal hormone therapy and treatment of prostate cancer (Wiki; Estradurin Labels). This does not seem to have been previously described in the literature, and the reasons for it are unknown. It seems possible that polyestradiol phosphate may be partially excreted before it can be cleaved into estradiol and thereby rendered partly inactive, in turn necessitating the use of higher doses to achieve the same estradiol levels and therapeutic effect.

Although two given injectable estradiol preparations may produce equivalent total estradiol levels, this does not necessarily mean that they will always have the same estrogenic potency (i.e., strength of effect at a given dose). It is plausible that spikier estradiol concentration–time curves, like with estradiol benzoate, may have overall lower estrogenic potency than more steady curves, like with estradiol enanthate. This is because estrogen receptors for a given tissue should become saturated at a certain point due to the finite quantity of available receptors in the tissue. As a result, high peak estradiol levels with spikier curves may effectively be “wasted” to varying extents in different tissues. On the other hand, more spikey estradiol curves, due to higher peak estradiol levels, might have greater influence on tissues that require high estradiol levels for effect such as the liver (and by extension on coagulation and associated health risks) (Aly, 2020). However, these possibilities are speculative and theoretical. Although some literature exists that is relevant to this issue (e.g., Parkes, 1937; Bradbury, Long, & Durham, 1953), there is very little research in this area. Consequently, it is not currently possible to take into account time-related variations in estradiol levels or differing estradiol curve shapes when assessing the comparative estrogenic potency between injectable estradiol preparations (or between other estradiol forms/routes). It is also noteworthy that these variations depend on injection interval and may be reduced with shorter injection intervals that maintain steadier estradiol levels, which must also be considered.

Variability Between Individuals

There is substantial variation in total estradiol levels and curve shapes between people with the same injectable estradiol preparation. Indicators of interindividual variability such as standard deviation or 95% range have not been included in this meta-analysis at this time due to the large amount of additional time and work this would require (e.g., additional extraction of error bars from all studies and analysis). In any case, individual studies that were included show this marked interindividual variation (e.g., Oriowo et al., 1980; Derra, 1981 [Graph]; Aedo et al., 1985 [Graphs]; Sang et al., 1987 [Graphs]; Rahimy & Ryan, 1999 [Graph]; Valle Alvarez, 2011 [Graph]; Schug, Donath, & Blume, 2012 [Graphs]). Highly variable estradiol levels are already well-established with oral and transdermal estradiol (Kuhl, 2005; Wiki). Less variability might be expected with non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters since these preparations appear to have approximately complete bioavailability. However, it seems that even with injectable forms of estradiol, the variability between people is still quite substantial. An implication of this is that the appropriate dose and dosing interval of an injectable estradiol formulation for a given person will vary considerably. This emphasizes the importance of blood work to ensure that injectable estradiol preparations are neither overdosed—which can increase health risks such as blood clots (Aly, 2020)—nor underdosed—which may result in suboptimal testosterone suppression and therapeutic efficacy.

Insights for Clinical Guidelines and Dosing Recommendations

Clinical guidelines for transgender health (see also Aly (2020)) provide recommendations on doses and dosing intervals of injectable estradiol valerate in oil and estradiol cypionate in oil (Table 11). Dosing recommendations are not given for other injectable estradiol preparations, which are much less commonly used in transgender medicine. The recommended doses for estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate vary widely depending on the guidelines, whereas the recommended intervals are consistently once every 1 to 2 weeks. The doses for estradiol valerate range from 2 to 20 mg/week or 5 to 80 mg/2 weeks and the doses for estradiol cypionate range from <1 to 10 mg/week or <2 to 80 mg/2 weeks. For reference, the Endocrine Society guidelines and the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) guidelines are the most major clinical guidelines for transgender hormone therapy at present (Aly, 2020). The Endocrine Society guidelines recommend 5 to 30 mg/2 weeks or 2 to 10 mg/week for either estradiol valerate or estradiol cypionate (Hembree et al., 2017). Conversely, the UCSF guidelines recommend <20 to 40 mg/2 weeks for estradiol valerate and <2 to 5 mg/2 weeks for estradiol cypionate (with the option to divide dose into weekly injections if cyclical side effects occur) (Deutsch, 2016a).

Table 11: Recommended doses and injection intervals of injectable estradiol preparations (specifically estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate) in transgender medicine clinical guidelinesa:

GuidelinesEster(s)Dose ranges and intervals
Endocrine Society / Hembree et al. (2017)Estradiol valerate or cypionate5–30 mg/2 weeks or 2–10 mg/week i.m.
UCSF / Deutsch (2016b)Estradiol valerateInitial–low: <20 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Initial: 20 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Note: “May divide dose into weekly injections for cyclical symptoms”
Note: Specifically for transfeminine adults
 Estradiol cypionateInitial–low: <2 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Initial: 2 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 5 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Note: “May divide dose into weekly injections for cyclical symptoms”
Note: Specifically for transfeminine adults
UCSF / Olson-Kennedy et al. (2016)Estradiol valerate5–20 mg/2 weeks
Maximum: 30–40 mg/2 weeks
Note: Specifically for transfeminine youth
 Estradiol cypionate2–10 mg/week
Note: Specifically for transfeminine youth
Fenway Health / Cavanaugh et al. (2015)Estradiol valerateInitial: 5–10 mg/week i.m.
Usual: 20 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
 Estradiol cypionateInitial: 2.5 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Usual: 5 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 10 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Callen-Lorde (2018)Estradiol valerateInitial: 10–20 mg/2 weeks
Maximum: 20–40 mg/2 weeks
 Estradiol cypionateInitial: 2.5 mg/2 weeks
Maximum: 5 mg/2 weeks
Davidson et al. / Tom Waddell Health Center (2013)Estradiol valerate or cypionateInitial: 20–40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Average: 40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Maximum: 40–80 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Bourns / Sherbourne Health / Rainbow Health Ontario (2019)Estradiol valerateInitial: 3–4 mg/week or 6–8 mg/2 weeks
Usual: Variable
Maximum: 10 mg/week
Trans Care BC (2021)Estradiol valerateInitial: 5 mg/week i.m. or s.c.
Usual: 10–20 mg/week i.m. or s.c.
Every 2 weeks at 2x dose may be tolerated in some
Dahl et al. / Vancouver Coastal Health (2015)Estradiol valerate20–40 mg/2 weeks i.m.
Note: “Alternative estrogen therapy for 3–6 months only”
European Society for Sexual Medicine / T’Sjoen et al. (2020)Estradiol valerate5–30 mg/1–2 weeks i.m.
 Estradiol cypionate2–10 mg/week i.m.
TransLine (2019)Estradiol valerateInitial/Usual: 5–10 mg/week
Maximum: 20 mg/week
 Estradiol cypionateInitial/Usual: 1.25–2.5 mg/week
Maximum: 5 mg/week

a Several other guidelines recommend doses and intervals that appear to be taken directly from the Endocrine Society or UCSF guidelines and thus are not listed here but can be found elsewhere (Aly, 2020).

A number of concerns arise when the doses and intervals of injectable estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate recommended by the major transgender clinical guidelines are considered in the context of the present informal meta-analysis and when they are compared between guidelines. Based on the present work, dosages of injectable preparations recommended by the major transgender clinical guidelines appear to result in estradiol exposure that is markedly higher than that with the recommended dosages for other routes and forms of estradiol (e.g., oral or transdermal). Whereas a dosage of 5 mg/week of any non-polymeric injectable estradiol ester appears to give average estradiol levels of around 300 pg/mL (~1,100 pmol/L), which are already supraphysiological, doses of injectable estradiol valerate or estradiol cypionate recommended by guidelines are as high as 15 to 20 mg per week. The average estradiol concentrations that would be expected to result from such doses per this meta-analysis (e.g., ~600–1,200 pg/mL or 2,200–4,400 pmol/L at 10–20 mg/week) (Figure 10) would vastly exceed the ranges for estradiol levels in transfeminine people advised by the same guidelines (generally about 50–200 pg/mL or ~180–730 pmol/L) (Table). This is not merely theoretical; for example, a study that used 40 mg/week estradiol valerate by intramuscular injection in cisgender women with estrogen deficiency to produce “pseudopregnancy” reported measured estradiol levels of about 2,500 pg/mL (~9,200 pmol/L) at 3 months and 3,100 pg/mL (~11,400 pmol/L) at 6 months of treatment (Ulrich, Pfeifer, & Lauritzen, 1994). Moreover, highly supraphysiological estradiol levels with guideline-based injectable estradiol doses are not unexpected when normal production of estradiol in premenopausal cisgender women is considered (~1.4 mg per week or 6 mg per month/cycle giving mean estradiol levels of ~100 pg/mL or 370 pmol/L) (Aly, 2019). Clinical safety data on high doses of injectable estradiol esters like estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate are lacking at present, but excessive estrogenic exposure is known to increase the risk of health complications such as blood clots (Aly, 2020). The very high doses of these preparations that are recommended by guidelines should raise considerable reservations about their safety.

Figure 10: Simulated estradiol levels with injectable estradiol valerate at the doses and interval (5–40 mg/2 weeks) preferentially recommended by current major transgender care guidelines. Steady-state estradiol levels are reached by about the second or third injection with this injection interval and levels do not further accumulate. An alternative version of this figure with half-doses at a once-weekly interval (i.e., 2.5–20 mg/week) is also provided (Graph).

The present author elsewhere has listed doses of injectable estradiol preparations that are roughly comparable in terms of total estradiol exposure to doses for other estradiol forms and routes used in transfeminine people (Aly, 2020). These doses range from about 1 to 6 mg per week for “low dose” to “very high dose” therapy with non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters (Graph). This dose range for injectable estradiol is likely to be more appropriate for use in transfeminine people than current recommendations by many guidelines. Although high estradiol levels can be useful in transfeminine hormone therapy when antiandrogens are not used due to their greater efficacy than physiological levels in terms of testosterone suppression, only modestly supraphysiological estradiol levels (e.g., ~200–300 pg/mL or 730–1,100 pmol/L) appear to be required for strong testosterone suppression (Aly, 2019; Langley et al., 2021; Aly, 2020). In relation to this, doses of injectable estradiol need not be excessive.

Some guidelines, such as the Endocrine Society guidelines, recommend the same doses and intervals for both estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate, whereas other guidelines, such as the UCSF guidelines, recommend different doses for these two injectable estradiol esters. Concerningly, the doses for estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate recommended by the UCSF guidelines differ by roughly an order of magnitude (<20 to 40 mg/2 weeks for estradiol valerate and <2 to 5 mg/2 weeks for estradiol cypionate). These estradiol esters appear to produce similar average estradiol levels (e.g., around 300 pg/mL or 1,100 pmol/L at a dosage of 5 mg/week) and have concentration–time curve shapes that are not extremely different, with estradiol cypionate being only somewhat flatter and more prolonged than estradiol valerate. As such, it would appear that similar doses should be appropriate for these esters. This is supported by the fact that the same doses of estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate are used in combined injectable contraceptives in cisgender women (both 5 mg once per month) and that these doses were carefully determined during an intensive clinical development programme for these preparations (Garza-Flores, 1994; Newton, d’Arcangues, & Hall, 1994; Sang, 1994; Toppozada, 1994). This programme notably included dose-ranging and direct-comparison studies. Based on the present analysis, the current recommendations by the UCSF guidelines may result in marked overdosage in the case of estradiol valerate and potential underdosage in the case of estradiol cypionate.

Transgender health guidelines recommend an injection interval for estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate in oil of once every 1 to 2 weeks. Although an injection interval of 2 weeks seems technically feasible in the case of both of these preparations, such an interval would appear to result in substantial fluctuations in estradiol levels, with high peak levels and low troughs. This is particularly true in the case of the shorter-acting estradiol valerate (Figures 10, 11). Considering the wide fluctuations and unknown effects of this variability, as well as the fact that testosterone suppression when applicable may depend on sustained higher estradiol levels, it may be advisable that a once-weekly interval be preferentially recommended for these preparations. This would achieve steadier estradiol levels and would reduce potential problems due to high or low estradiol levels (Figure 11). Alternatively, a shorter interval of once every 5 days may be used with estradiol valerate to further reduce the variability in estradiol levels that occurs with this preparation (Figure 11). On the other hand, an injection interval of once every 10 days to 2 weeks may be practical and allowable in the case of the longer-acting estradiol cypionate in oil (as well as estradiol enanthate) (Figure 11)—provided that the injection cycles are well-tolerated and testosterone suppression remains adequate. When selecting different injection intervals, doses should be scaled by the interval to maintain equivalent total estradiol exposure (e.g., 3.5 mg/5 days, 5 mg/7 days, 7 mg/10 days, or 10 mg/14 days for high-dose non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters).

Figure 11: Simulated estradiol levels with a high dosage of injectable estradiol valerate or estradiol cypionate in oil at different injection intervals (doses scaled by interval to be equivalent in total estradiol exposure).

With the preceding concerns about the doses and intervals of injectable estradiol preparations recommended by transgender care guidelines considered, the question of how these recommendations were determined arises. Unfortunately, current guidelines do not generally describe how they arrived at their recommendations nor do they usually cite sources to support them. It is notable that the UCSF guidelines recommend doses and intervals for injectable estradiol preparations that are nearly identical to those advised by Christian Hamburger and Harry Benjamin in the late 1960s in the first medical textbook on transgender people (Hamburger & Benjamin, 1969). These authors recommended a dose of 10–40 mg/2 weeks for estradiol valerate and of 2–5 mg/2 weeks for estradiol cypionate (although Benjamin additionally stated that after 4–8 months, the same doses could be used at a longer injection interval of once every 4 weeks). These recommendations were notably made before estradiol blood tests became practicably available and were prior to the advent of modern pharmacokinetic studies. Hence, the recommendations for at least these guidelines appear to be based mainly on past expert opinion and long-standing historical precedent rather than on pharmacokinetic or clinical data. The same is likely to also be true for most other guidelines. High doses with certain injectable estradiol preparations (namely estradiol valerate) were probably originally employed for the purpose of achieving longer durations and more convenient injection intervals. This was notably prior to the risks of excessive estrogenic exposure like blood clots becoming known, and these doses may simply have never been revised.

The reasons that dose recommendations for injectable estradiol in transfeminine people have remained as they have for so long may be related to several factors. These include (1) a long-standing lack of research and funding in transgender health; (2) injectable estradiol not being widely available or as commonly used as other forms of estradiol; and (3) many clinicians only testing estradiol levels at trough (right before the next injection) with injectable estradiol preparations (e.g., Mueller et al., 2011; Chantrapanichkul et al., 2021; Cirrincione et al., 2021). The latter point is noteworthy as trough levels only describe the lowest point of the estradiol concentration–time curve with injectable estradiol preparations, and can give a very misleading impression of average or total estradiol exposure. In any case, the very high estradiol levels with currently recommended doses of injectable estradiol forms for transfeminine people have not gone unnoticed in the literature (e.g., Gooren, 2005; Spack, 2013; Deutsch, 2014; Glintborg et al., 2021; Tassinari & Maranghi, 2021; Le, Huang, & Cirrincione, 2022). Additionally, studies in transfeminine people have reported high to very high estradiol levels with typical clinical doses of injectable estradiol (e.g., Futterweit, Gabrilove, & Smith, 1984 [Figure]; Kronawitter et al., 2009 [Table]; Mueller et al., 2011 [Table]; Sharula et al., 2012 [Data]; Nelson et al., 2016 [Table]; LaBudde, Craig, & Spratt, 2020; Chantrapanichkul et al., 2021 [Table]; Cirrincione et al., 2021 [Table]).

Among the surveyed guidelines for transgender hormone therapy, only the UCSF guidelines (Deutsch, 2016b) and the Sherbourne Health/Rainbow Health Ontario guidelines (Bourns, 2019) referenced pharmacokinetic literature in their discussion of injectable estradiol. The specific publications cited by these guidelines were Düsterberg & Nishino (1982), Sierra-Ramírez et al. (2011), and Thurman et al. (2013). Although it is favorable to see guidelines considering published pharmacokinetic data for informing use of these preparations, there are a few concerns about the studies that were cited. Düsterberg & Nishino (1982) in its study of injectable estradiol valerate had a very small sample size (n=2), and this study was excluded as an outlier in the present meta-analysis due to unusually high estradiol levels. The findings of Düsterberg & Nishino (1982) also do not seem to have actually been used to guide dosing recommendations in the case of the UCSF guidelines, since if this were the case, the recommended doses should have been much lower. On the other hand, Bourns (2019) cited the same study and recommended injectable estradiol valerate at doses of 3–4 mg/week or 6–8 mg/2 weeks. These doses are well below those recommended by other transgender care guidelines and appear to be more appropriate for use in transfeminine people in light of the present meta-analysis. Sierra-Ramírez et al. (2011) and Thurman et al. (2013), although better-quality studies than Düsterberg & Nishino (1982), described injectable estradiol cypionate suspension rather than estradiol cypionate in oil. The oil-based version of estradiol cypionate is the form normally used in transfeminine hormone therapy, and there are important differences between these estradiol cypionate preparations such that pharmacokinetic studies for the suspension can’t necessarily be generalized to the oil solution. These preparations do in any case produce similar total estradiol levels however and hence doses should be comparable for them.

This meta-analysis is only informal and unpublished research. Nonetheless, based on the results of this work and the preceding discussion, current dosing recommendations for injectable estradiol preparations by most transgender clinical guidelines appear to be highly excessive and likely unsafe, with injection intervals that may additionally be too widely spaced. Transgender care guidelines should consider reassessing these recommendations, and the transgender medical community should make an effort to better characterize the pharmacokinetics and optimal dosing schemes of injectable estradiol preparations in transfeminine people in the future. Since clinical data on these preparations are scarce and will probably remain so in the near-term, use of published pharmacokinetic data may be further considered for guiding dosing recommendations for injectable estradiol. As identified and catalogued by this meta-analysis, there is a wealth of existing data that could be used to better inform transgender care guidelines in terms of the use of injectable estradiol preparations in transfeminine people.

Interactive Web Simulator

This informal meta-analysis of estradiol concentration–time data with injectable estradiol preparations was conducted for the purpose of deriving accurate and representative estradiol curves for incorporation into a web-based injectable estradiol simulator intended for use by transfeminine people and their clinicians. This web app is able to simulate both single-injection curves and repeated-injection curves with these preparations. An informational page for this simulator can be found at the following location:

And the injectable estradiol simulator itself can be found at the following page:

Future Possibilities

There are various possibilities for further work on this project in the future. For example, assessment of interindividual variability for estradiol levels with injectable estradiol preparations could be included in the meta-analysis. As another example, it would be fairly straightforward and valuable to expand the meta-analysis as well as simulator to other hormonal preparations such as injectable testosterone preparations and other estradiol routes and forms like oral estradiol, sublingual estradiol, and estradiol pellets. Pharmacokinetic literature for some of these preparations has already been collected by this author. However, these future possibilities would require much additional time and effort to complete.

Special Thanks

A special thank you to Violet and Lila for their indispensable input and guidance on modeling topics during the work on this project. An additional thanks to Violet for deriving a special three-compartment pharmacokinetic model that was used in this work. Please also check out Violet’s own projects Tilia—an effort to empower trans people with tools to manage their hormonal transitions—and TransKit—a work-in-progress pharmacokinetic simulation library specifically tailored for transgender hormone therapy. Lastly, thank you to all the peer reviewers who carefully reviewed this article prior to it being posted.

Updates

Update 1: WPATH SOC8 Guidelines

In September 2022, the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH) Standards of Care for the Health of Transgender and Gender Diverse People Version 8 (SOC8) were published and made recommendations on transgender hormone therapy for the first time (Coleman et al., 2022). These guidelines are among the most highly regarded and consulted transgender care guidelines. In terms of the recommended doses of hormonal medications for transgender people, the WPATH SOC8 appear to have largely copied the Endocrine Society’s 2017 guidelines on transgender hormone therapy (Hembree et al., 2017). More specifically, in the case of injectable estradiol preparations for transfeminine people, doses of 5–30 mg/2 weeks or 2–10 mg/week estradiol valerate or estradiol cypionate were recommended. There was no discussion of injectable estradiol in the guidelines besides the preceding doses and intervals being included in a table, and no literature citations were included to support these doses. As described in the present work, these recommendations include doses and intervals that appear to be highly excessive, too widely spaced, and are likely unsafe. As such, major transgender care guidelines unfortunately continue to make uncited recommendations for injectable estradiol that are out of step with insights available from abundant published pharmacokinetic data. These recommendations are likely inadvisable, with the possibility of substantial health risks.

Update 2: Literature Mentions

The following publications in the literature have cited or mentioned Transfeminine Science’s injectable estradiol simulator and/or meta-analysis since the project was published in mid-2021:

Hughes et al. (2022)

Hughes, J. H., Woo, K. H., Keizer, R. J., & Goswami, S. (2022). Clinical Decision Support for Precision Dosing: Opportunities for Enhanced Equity and Inclusion in Health Care. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 113(3), 565–574. [DOI:10.1002/cpt.2799]:

Lastly, we recommend that developers of [clinical decision support software (CDSS)] for dosing take an iterative and participatory approach to designing systems. By involving stakeholders in the design process, they will develop solutions that best suit users’ needs and are more likely to be adopted and used correctly. This participatory approach should involve interviews and usability testing with clinicians. Formal usability testing and analysis with real end users can improve the quality and usefulness of a system.88 Though patients themselves are not typically the end users of CDSS, their expertise (especially that of marginalized groups and organized patient advocacy organizations) can also inform CDSS developers. As an example, transgender people have compiled their own resources to understanding dosing regimens in the absence of clear clinical guidelines.89 Developers of CDSS could provide a great deal of value to these patient populations, and improve their software’s utility, by working with them to understand their needs from a dosing tool.

89. Aly, W. An interactive web simulator for estradiol levels with injectable estradiol esters. Transfeminine Science <https://transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-simulator-release/> (2021) Accessed November 1, 2022.

Jaafar et al. (2022)

Jaafar, S., Torres-Leguizamon, M., Duplessy, C., & Stambolis-Ruhstorfer, M. (2022). Hormonothérapie injectable et réduction des risques: pratiques, difficultés, santé des personnes trans en France. [Hormone replacement therapy injections and harm reduction: practices, difficulties, and transgender people’s health in France.] Sante Publique, 34(HS2), 109–122. [Google Scholar] [PubMed] [DOI:10.3917/spub.hs2.0109] [Translated]:

With regard to feminizing [substitutive hormone therapy (HS)], there are no specialty injectables based on estrogens in the French pharmacopoeia. This makes it impossible to set up estrogen monotherapies which require high dosages that are more difficult to obtain with specialties with other galenic forms [5]. Faced with this lack of care, some trans women and transfeminine people obtain estradiol-based injectable solutions on the Internet or through other sources [6]. […]

5. Aly. An informal meta-analysis of estradiol curves with injectable estradiol preparations [Internet]. Transfem Sci. 2021 July 16. [Visited on 29/12/2022]. Online : https://transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/.

Linet (2023)

Linet, T. (2023). Prise en charge endocrinologique d’une personne trans. [Endocrinological care of a trans person.] In Faucher, P., Hassoun, D., & Linet, T. (Eds.). Santé sexuelle et reproductive des personnes LGBT [Sexual and Reproductive Health of LGBT People] (pp. 109–124). Issy-les-Moulineaux, France: Elsevier Masson. [Google Books] [URL] [WorldCat] [Excerpt] [Translated]:

Choice of estrogen.

Estradiol is generally the most prescribed estrogen. It is given orally or sublingually in transfeminine people with no significant cardiovascular risk factors. For others, the percutaneous form (patches, gel) is recommended.

The starting dose is 2 mg of estradiol orally with a step increase of 2 mg every 2 to 3 months until the optimal dose is reached [1]. For the patches, the initial dosage and the increments are 50 or 100 μg, and for the gel 2.5 g. This means that the optimal dose is generally 6 to 8 mg per day for the oral route, 3 to 4 mg for the sublingual route, and 300 to 400 μg for the patches (see table 11.1).

It may happen in consultation that the person does not wish to use the prescribed estrogens and wishes to continue the self-prescription of injectable estrogens. It is then possible to evaluate with them the most suitable dosage using the Transfem Science Injection Simulator (https://transfemscience.org/misc/injectable-e2-simulator/). Risk prevention related to injections (needles) can be done. Associations can help the person find 25 G needles of 40 mm useful this type of treatment.

Rothman et al. (2024)

Rothman, M. S., Ariel, D., Kelley, C., Hamnvik, O. R., Abramowitz, J., Irwig, M. S., Soe, K., Davidge-Pitts, C., Misakian, A. L., Safer, J. D., & Iwamoto, S. J. (2024). The Use of Injectable Estradiol in Transgender and Gender Diverse Adults: A Scoping Review of Dose and Serum Estradiol Levels. Endocrine Practice, ahead of print. [DOI:10.1016/j.eprac.2024.05.008]:

In recent years, we have noted trends in our clinical practices with TGD adults requesting injectable estradiol, particularly in the United States. The reasons given can vary; it may be due to ease of weekly or every two weeks administration, fatigue of taking daily oral medications and skin reactions to or cost of transdermal preparations. There have been discussions as to the roles of estrone/estradiol ratios in feminization and whether injectable estradiol might lead to more favorable results, however research has not supported a role for estrone in optimizing feminizing outcomes [13]. There is also a belief that higher levels can be attained with 82 injections and may lead to faster and more complete feminization; however, there is a lack of data in the literature to support these conclusions. Such conversations occurring on reddit.com and even some hormone provider websites, are perhaps related to the historical use of high dose injectable estradiol noted above [14]. However, there is a paucity of data to guide clinicians on what dose, type and at what interval estradiol esters should be injected and when levels should be measured to ensure physiologic range estradiol levels. In fact, recent reports and clinical observations have raised concerns that the dosing suggested in guidelines may result in supraphysiological estradiol levels and that higher doses and levels may put patients at elevated risk of thromboembolic events [15-18]. This scoping review examines the available data on levels achieved with various dosages of estradiol injections in TGD adults. We also report on testosterone suppression, route (i.e., SC vs. IM), and type of estradiol ester as well as timing of blood draw relative to dose, where available.

Acknowledgment

[…] [We] thank Aly from Transfemscience for community representation and correspondence.

16. https://transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/. [March 16, 2024].

Update 3: Herndon et al. (2023)

In March 2023, the following study on injectable estradiol in transfeminine people was published online:

  • Herndon, J. S., Maheshwari, A. K., Nippoldt, T. B., Carlson, S. J., Davidge-Pitts, C. J., & Chang, A. Y. (2023). Comparison of Subcutaneous and Intramuscular Estradiol Regimens as part of Gender-Affirming Hormone Therapy. Endocrine Practice, 29(5), 356–361. [DOI:10.1016/j.eprac.2023.02.006] [URL]

The study was a retrospective analysis of individualized injectable estradiol in adult transfeminine people who received hormone therapy at the Mayo Clinic. Doses of injectable estradiol were adjusted by clinical providers based on estradiol levels, testosterone suppression, and feminization goals, and subsequently these clinical data were retrospectively studied by Mayo Clinic researchers. The primary aim of the study was to compare injectable estradiol by intramuscular versus subcutaneous routes. However, other general considerations for injectable estradiol, such as dosing, estradiol levels, testosterone suppression, type of injectable estradiol ester (estradiol valerate vs. estradiol cypionate), and estradiol monotherapy versus concomitant use of antiandrogens, were also assessed. The paper noted that the study was the largest to assess injectable estradiol in transfeminine people to date and was the first to directly compare intramuscular and subcutaneous injectable estradiol routes in transfeminine people.

Injectable estradiol doses were adjusted to achieve estradiol and testosterone levels within therapeutic ranges defined by the Endocrine Society 2017 guidelines (>100 pg/mL [367 pg/mL] for estradiol and <50 ng/dL [<1.7 nmol/L] for testosterone). Estradiol levels were measured exclusively using liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS), while the assay method for measuring testosterone levels was not specified. In terms of when in the injection cycle estradiol levels were measured, the authors stated the following: (1) “Timing of estradiol blood draw in relation to injection was not protocolized” and (2) “In our practice, although estradiol concentrations were generally checked midway through the injection cycle, we were unable to document with certainty the timing of the estradiol lab testing which may have influenced the results and/or the outliers”. Only the most recent blood test for each individual was analyzed, with the results of earlier tests discarded. Doses were analyzed in per-week amounts, regardless of dosing frequency (either once weekly or once every two weeks).

There were a total of 130 transfeminine people on injectable estradiol who were analyzed in the study. Of these individuals, 56 received intramuscular (i.m.) injections and 74 received subcutaneous (s.c.) injections. The median duration of therapy for injectable estradiol was 3.0 years for both routes. The vast majority of people used weekly injections (91.1% for i.m., 98.6% for s.c.), whereas the small remainder (n=6) injected once every 2 weeks. Similarly, the great majority used injectable estradiol valerate (89.3% for i.m., 86.5% for s.c.), while a small subset (n=16) used injectable estradiol cypionate. The authors did not state the injectable vehicles, but they can be confidently assumed to have both been in oil. The treatment-individualized doses per week of injectable estradiol were median 4 mg (interquartile range (IQR) 3–5.15 mg; range 1–8 mg) for the i.m. route and median 3.75 mg (IQR 3–4 mg; range 1–8 mg) for the s.c. route, with the differences in doses between groups being slightly but significantly different (p = 0.005). For the small number of people on two-week injection cycles, the doses for the combined i.m. and s.c. groups were median 8.5 mg (range 6–16 mg) every 2 weeks. Estradiol levels with injectable estradiol were median 189.5 pg/mL (IQR 126.8–252.5 or 122.5–257 pg/mL; range ~33–575 pg/mL] for i.m. and median 196 pg/mL (IQR 125.3–298.5 pg/mL; range ~23–581 pg/mL) for s.c., with the differences between groups not being significantly different (p = 0.70). The percentages of individuals with estradiol levels in target range (>100 pg/mL) were 78.6% for i.m. and 82.4% for s.c. The estradiol doses and levels of individual patients for each route were also provided in the paper (Graph). It can be seen that more individuals clustered into the higher range of doses with i.m. than with s.c. injections.

In the case of estradiol valerate versus estradiol cypionate, dose per week for i.m. with estradiol valerate was median 4 mg (IQR 3–5.45 mg) and with estradiol cypionate was median 4 mg (IQR 2.25–5 mg). In the case of s.c., dose per week with estradiol valerate was median 4 mg (IQR 3–4 mg) and with estradiol cypionate was median 3 mg (IQR 2–3 mg). The doses between estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate were not significantly different in the case of i.m. (p = 0.51), but were significantly different in the case of s.c. (p = 0.025). Estradiol levels with the two different injectable estradiol esters were not provided.

On multiple regression analysis, injectable estradiol dose was significantly positively associated with estradiol levels (p < 0.001) following adjustment for several variables (injection route, body mass index (BMI), antiandrogen use, gonadectomy status). Each 1 mg per week in dose was associated with estradiol levels that were increased by (estimate ± standard error) 57.42 ± 10.46 pg/mL. No other variable, including notably BMI, was significantly associated with estradiol levels. According to the authors, the dose-dependently higher estradiol levels with injectable estradiol suggested the need to start at lower doses that are gradually increased in conjunction with close monitoring of hormone levels.

Testosterone levels in those with gonads were 11 ng/dL (IQR 0–19.8 ng/dL) for i.m. and 11 ng/dL (0–20 ng/dL) for s.c., with levels not significantly different between groups (p = 0.92). Adequate testosterone suppression (<50 ng/dL) in those with gonads was achieved in 84.6% with i.m. and 86.6% with s.c. In the small subset of individuals on injections every two weeks (n=6), 100% of individuals achieved target estradiol and testosterone levels. A majority of individuals on injectable estradiol in the study concomitantly used an antiandrogen, with this usually being spironolactone or finasteride. In a minority of individuals, injectable estradiol monotherapy, without concomitant use of an antiandrogen, was employed and hormone levels were measured (n=17). In this subgroup, estradiol levels were median 220 pg/mL (IQR 180–264 pg/mL) at a dose per week of median 4 mg (IQR 3–6 mg), with estradiol levels noticeably higher than in the overall group. In terms of hormone levels for those on injectable estradiol monotherapy, 100% achieved therapeutic estradiol levels (>100 pg/mL) and 88.2% achieved target testosterone levels (<50 ng/dL). The authors noted that most individuals on injectable estradiol monotherapy were able to adequately suppress testosterone, but that higher doses and levels of estradiol may be needed for testosterone suppression in this context.

Herndon et al. (2023) noted that existing recommendations for injectable estradiol in transfeminine people suggest doses of 2 to 10 mg per week or 5 to 30 mg every 2 weeks, referencing the Endocrine Society 2017 guidelines (Hembree et al., 2017) and UCSF 2016 guidelines (Deutsch, 2016a). They also noted that the UCSF 2016 guidelines recommended lower doses of estradiol cypionate than estradiol valerate, which they attributed to pharmacokinetic differences between the esters (citing Oriowo et al. (1980) for this claim). However, the authors noted that the differences between estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate doses they observed were small, and questioned the clinical relevance of the differences. The authors also tactfully critiqued dosing recommendations by existing guidelines, and suggested their own data to guide dosing instead, with the following relevant excerpts:

Prior studies used for development of guidelines for parenteral doses are suboptimal given their small sample sizes or pre-specificized [gender-affirming hormone therapy (GAHT)] protocols with no adjustment of estradiol doses or no information on hormone concentrations achieved. [Discussion of Deutsch, Bhakri, & Kubicek (2015) and Mueller et al. (2011) …]

Overall, the studies used to support the current dosing recommendation guidelines for parenteral estradiol dosing are limited, incomplete with regards to hormone concentrations achieved, and do not provide SC as an available option. The doses of estradiol used in this study (with either SC or IM approach), were successful in achieving serum estradiol concentrations at the cisgender female range. Most importantly, as compared to current available guidelines and consensus statements [1, 2], these doses of estradiol valerate are less than half of what is recommended for both initial and maintenance dosing and achieved suppression of testosterone.

Lower doses of parenteral injections than previously described in clinical practice guidelines achieved therapeutic estradiol concentrations. Our data can serve as a dosing guide for initial and maintenance use of parenteral estradiol, which is different than what has been previously described.

Herndon et al. (2023) concluded that injectable estradiol by both i.m. and s.c. routes is effective in achieving therapeutic estradiol levels in transfeminine people. They noted that there were not meaningful differences between i.m. and s.c. in terms of dose, although i.m. may require slightly higher doses than s.c. to achieve therapeutic estradiol levels. The authors stated that doses of injectable estradiol to achieve therapeutic estradiol levels in transfeminine people were lower than previously recommended by guidelines and other publications. They concluded that clinical use of injectable estradiol in transfeminine people should include discussion of both i.m. and s.c. routes and invidiualization by patient. Finally, they called for more clinical studies on injectable estradiol in transfeminine people to evaluate clinical outcomes, feminization, and additional risks and benefits of this route compared to other routes.

The findings of Herndon et al. (2023) are pleasingly consistent with the results of the present meta-analysis. Based on the findings of this meta-analysis, assuming a linear relationship between dose and estradiol levels, estradiol levels with non-polymeric injectable estradiol esters, like estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate in oil via intramuscular injection, increase by around 60 pg/mL on average for each 1 mg per week in dose (with Herndon et al. (2023) finding a value of 57 pg/mL per 1 mg using a multiple linear regression model). In relation to this, mean integrated estradiol levels of around 250 pg/mL on average would be expected at a dosage of 4 mg once per week. Accordingly, Herndon et al. (2023) found median estradiol levels of 190 to 196 pg/mL at per-week median doses of 3.75 to 4 mg. Similarly, the present work recommended injectable estradiol doses with non-polymeric esters of 1 to 6 mg per week (to achieve mean integrated estradiol levels of roughly 50–300 pg/mL), which is comparable to the range of about 2 to 6 mg per week used in most transfeminine people in Herndon et al. (2023) (to achieve estradiol levels of at least 100 pg/mL, along with adequate testosterone suppression). Additionally, it was noted in this meta-analysis—based on clinical research in cisgender men with prostate cancer—that only modestly supraphysiological estradiol levels, of no more than approximately 200 to 300 pg/mL, are likely to be needed for strong testosterone suppression in transfeminine people. This has likewise been confirmed with solid clinical data in transfeminine people by Herndon et al. (2023), with 88% of those on injectable estradiol monotherapy having testosterone levels of <50 ng/dL at a median injectable estradiol dose of 4 mg/week and with median estradiol levels of 220 pg/mL. It is the opinion of the present author that Herndon et al. (2023) is a very important and formative study, with clinical implications that go far beyond merely supporting the s.c. use of injectable estradiol. The study represents the first major step in the published literature to correcting the dosing and intervals of injectable estradiol in transgender care guidelines and in transgender health generally. I commend the researchers for their work.

Update 4: Rothman et al. (2024a) and Rothman et al. (2024b)

In February 2024, the following short review on injectable estradiol dosing in transfeminine people by Micol Rothman and colleagues was published online:

  • Rothman, M. S., Hamnvik, O. P. R., Davidge-Pitts, C., Safer, J. D., Ariel, D., Tangpricha, V., Abramowitz, J., Soe, K., Sarvaideo, J., Kelley, C., Irwig, M. S., & Iwamoto, S. J. (2024). Revisiting Injectable Estrogen Dosing Recommendations for Gender-Affirming Hormone Therapy. Transgender Health, ahead of print. [DOI:10.1089/trgh.2023.0209]

Here is the abstract of the paper:

Injectable estrogens are options for gender-affirming hormone therapy per guidelines, which suggest intramuscular dosages of 5–30 mg every 2 weeks or 2–10 mg weekly with estradiol cypionate or valerate interchangeably. Data among transgender and gender-diverse patients are limited due to local unavailability and concerns around laboratory assay variability and estradiol (E2) level fluctuation. We note a concerning trend where patients are prescribed high-dose injections based on the guidelines leading to serum E2 levels well above the range recommended in the same guidelines. Our review indicates that 5 mg weekly or lower should be prescribed when initiating injectable estrogens to avoid supraphysiologic E2 levels.

Then, in May 2024, the following longer and more comprehensive review on injectable estradiol dosing in transfeminine people by Rothman and most of the same other academics was published online:

  • Rothman, M. S., Ariel, D., Kelley, C., Hamnvik, O. R., Abramowitz, J., Irwig, M. S., Soe, K., Davidge-Pitts, C., Misakian, A. L., Safer, J. D., & Iwamoto, S. J. (2024). The Use of Injectable Estradiol in Transgender and Gender Diverse Adults: A Scoping Review of Dose and Serum Estradiol Levels. Endocrine Practice, ahead of print. [DOI:10.1016/j.eprac.2024.05.008]

Here is the abstract of this paper:

Objective: Feminizing gender-affirming hormone therapy is the mainstay of treatment for many transgender and gender diverse people. Injectable estradiol preparations are recommended by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health Standards of Care 8 and the Endocrine Society guidelines. Many patients prefer this route of administration, but few studies have rigorously assessed optimal dosing or route.

Methods: We performed a scoping review of the available data on estradiol levels achieved with various dosages of estradiol injections in transgender and gender diverse adults on feminizing gender-affirming hormone therapy. We also report on testosterone suppression, route (ie, subcutaneous vs intramuscular), and type of injectable estradiol ester as well as timing of blood draw relative to the most recent dose, where available.

Results: The data we reviewed suggest that the current guidelines, which recommend starting doses 2 to 10 mg weekly or 5 to 30 mg every 2 weeks of estradiol cypionate or valerate, are too high and likely lead to patients having supraphysiologic levels across much of their injection cycle.

Conclusions: The optimal starting dose for injectable estradiol remains unclear and whether it should differ for cypionate and valerate. Based on the data available, we suggest that clinicians start injectable estradiol cypionate or valerate via subcutaneous or intramuscular injections at a dose ≤5 mg weekly and then titrate accordingly to keep levels within guideline-recommended range. Future studies should assess timing of injections and subsequent levels more precisely across the injection cycle and between esters.

This paper notably also cited the present Transfeminine Science article as raising concerns about guideline-based dosing for injectable estradiol and potential health complications from these doses.

Aside from Micol Rothman herself, these reviews were also authored by other well-known experts in transgender health. For instance, two of the coauthors, Joshua Safer and Michael Irwig, were authors for the WPATH SOC8 hormone therapy chapter (WPATH SOC8 Full Contributor List). Additionally, Safer was one of the authors for the Endocrine Society’s transgender hormone therapy guidelines (Hembree et al., 2017). As such, it would appear that transgender medicine has finally started to seriously correct injectable estradiol dosing. This is a very important development. Now, the appropriate dosing and intervals of injectable estradiol will need to be more precisely established and the corrections will need to make their way into updated transgender hormone therapy guidelines and general clinical practice.

Update 5: Kariyawasam et al. (2024)

In March 2024, the following study of estradiol levels with different routes of estradiol in transfeminine people, including injectable estradiol, was published:

  • Kariyawasam, N. M., Ahmad, T., Sarma, S., & Fung, R. (2024). Comparison of Estrone/Estradiol Ratio and Levels in Transfeminine Individuals on Different Routes of Estradiol. Transgender Health, ahead of print. [DOI:10.1089/trgh.2023.0138]

The study stratified injectable estradiol doses into different dosing levels, accounted for timing of blood draws, and compared injectable estradiol to other estradiol routes. The other routes included oral estradiol, sublingual estradiol, and transdermal estradiol. The form of injectable estradiol used was estradiol valerate in dose groups including ≤4 mg/week (“low-dose”), >4 mg/week to ≤8 mg/week (“medium-dose”), and >8 mg/week (“high-dose”). In the study, this injectable estradiol regimen resulted in supraphysiological estradiol levels in the medium- to high-dose groups (>4 mg/week) and dramatically higher estradiol levels than with the other estradiol routes (Data). Median estradiol levels were reported in a subsequent paper as follows: “Figure 2 from the paper shows estradiol levels across the 3 groups. Although exact numbers are not given in this figure, we learned through correspondence with the authors that the low dose injection group [n=8] had a median level of 202.7 ± SD 232.6 pg/mL, the medium group [n=22] 465.2 ± SD 466.3 pg/mL, and the high group [n=3] 574.4 ± SD147.3 pg/mL (converted from SI units)” (Rothman et al., 2024b). Although the sample sizes for the different dose groups were small, this study, along with Herndon et al. (2023), provides some of the best clinical data on estradiol levels with injectable estradiol in transfeminine people that have so far been published.

Update 6: Patel et al. (2024)

In June 2024, the following open-access review discussing injectable estradiol in transfeminine people and calling for updated transgender health guidelines was published:

  • Patel, R., Korenman, S., Weimer, A., & Grock, S. (2024). A Call for Updates to Hormone Therapy Guidelines for Gender-Diverse Adults Assigned Male at Birth. Cureus, 16(6), e62262. [DOI:10.7759/cureus.62262] [PDF]

The following quote is the relevant excerpt on injectable estradiol from the review:

The current guideline-based dosing recommendations for estradiol vary considerably, which is problematic for clinicians and patients who rely on guidelines to initiate treatment. Most notably, the conversion rates between parenteral estradiol valerate and estradiol cypionate vary drastically between the UCSF Guidelines for the Primary and Gender-Affirming Care of Transgender and Gender Nonbinary People (UCSF Guidelines) and The Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guidelines for Endocrine Treatment of Gender-Dysphoric/Gender-Incongruent Persons (the Endocrine Society Guidelines). The UCSF Guidelines indicate the conversion between estradiol valerate and cypionate to be as high as a 4:1 ratio [2], while the Endocrine Society Guidelines provide no dosing differentiations [1]. Herndon and colleagues demonstrated that the conversion between estradiol cypionate and estradiol valerate is closer to 1:1 [4]. Further equivalence studies are needed to clarify ideal dosing conversions.

The Endocrine Society Guidelines recommend titrating estradiol to 100-200 pg/mL [1]. The UCSF Guidelines recommend 2-4 mg daily as the starting dose for oral estradiol and 5 mg weekly for parenteral estradiol valerate [2]. The Endocrine Society Guidelines suggest oral estradiol 2-6 mg daily and parenteral estradiol 2- 10 mg weekly [1]. However, Chantrapanichkul et al. found that intramuscular injections of estradiol valerate greater than 5 mg weekly led to mean estradiol concentrations well above 200 pg/mL, while 4-5 mg of oral estradiol daily only led to minimum desired concentrations [5]. Similarly, Herndon et al. found that subcutaneous estradiol at a median dose of 3.75 mg per week led to a median estradiol level of 196 pg/mL [4]. Thus, current guideline-based dosing may lead providers to choose doses of injectable estradiol that would result in supratherapeutic serum estradiol levels. In light of these recent publications, it is clear that guideline-based dosing for estradiol needs updating. In our clinical experience, parenteral estradiol valerate at doses of 2-4 mg weekly typically leads to physiologic estradiol levels. Estradiol cypionate should likely be dosed in a 1:1 ratio with estradiol valerate until future data are obtained.

Lastly, while estradiol valerate and cypionate are only FDA-approved for intramuscular administration, many patients prefer subcutaneous administration. There are small studies that suggest the pharmacokinetics of intramuscular and subcutaneous estradiol are similar [4]. While the UCSF Guidelines comment on the use of subcutaneous estradiol, other guidelines should be updated to include this option for patients [2].

Supplementary Material

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\ No newline at end of file diff --git a/transfemscience.org/articles/progestogens-breast-dev/index.html b/transfemscience.org/articles/progestogens-breast-dev/index.html index e5a2ca5c..9ef4066b 100644 --- a/transfemscience.org/articles/progestogens-breast-dev/index.html +++ b/transfemscience.org/articles/progestogens-breast-dev/index.html @@ -1 +1 @@ -A Comprehensive Review of the Potential of Progestogens for Enhancing Breast Development in Transfeminine People - Transfeminine Science Link

A Comprehensive Review of the Potential of Progestogens for Enhancing Breast Development in Transfeminine People

By Aly | First published February 14, 2020 | Last modified April 11, 2024

Abstract / TL;DR

The major female sex hormones are estrogen and progesterone. Both of these hormones are known to be importantly involved in the development of the breasts at different stages of life. Speculation, use, and anecdotes of progestogens for enhancing breast development in transfeminine people date back to at least the 1960s. A limited number of clinical studies have assessed breast development with progestogens in transfeminine people, but current evidence on progestogens for improving breast development is of very low quality and is inconclusive. Studies of progestogens and breast development in cisgender girls and women are similarly limited. In any case, more studies evaluating progestogens and breast development are currently underway. The possible role of progestogens in enhancing breast development can also be informed by indirect and circumstantial evidence, including notably findings on progesterone and breast changes during normal puberty, the menstrual cycle, and pregnancy in humans and animals. Available evidence overall is not suggestive of an essential role for progesterone in breast growth during puberty, but progesterone does have a clear and key role in lobuloalveolar development of the breasts during pregnancy. However, breast changes in pregnancy revert following cessation of lactation and breastfeeding. Progesterone may additionally contribute to reversible breast enlargement during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. There are some findings to suggest that progestogens may have antiestrogenic effects in the breasts and may have a stunting influence on breast development if introduced too early following initiation of hormone therapy. However, more research is needed to assess this possibility. In any case, if progestogens are used, it may be advisable to delay their introduction until most or all estrogen-mediated breast development is complete. Options for progestogen therapy in transfeminine people include bioidentical progesterone and progestins. However, oral progesterone has major bioavailability problems and does not achieve satisfactory progesterone levels. Progestogens, including progesterone, have been variously linked to significant health risks, which is an important consideration in terms of their use in transfeminine people. Overall, based on current knowledge, progestogens do not seem to be promising for lastingly improving breast development in transfeminine people, but more research and data are still needed for clear conclusions.

Introduction

Breast development in terms of size and shape is often less than desired in transfeminine people, and there is a need for therapeutic approaches that improve breast growth in this population. There are two major types of female hormones, estrogens and progestogens. Estrogens are almost universally employed in transfeminine hormone therapy, while progestogens are used in a subset of transfeminine people. Progestogens that have been commonly employed in transfeminine people include bioidentical progesterone, the progestin (synthetic progestogen) medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA), and the strongly progestogenic antiandrogen cyproterone acetate (CPA). Estrogens are the major mediators of feminization and breast development in females. However, progestogens also have physiological effects on the breasts, and in relation to this, may or may not provide benefits to breast development as well.

The topic of progestogens and breast development has been discussed for many years in the transgender community and is a controversial subject (Coleman et al., 2012). Use of progestogens to improve breast development in transfeminine people goes back at least as far as Harry Benjamin and Christian Hamburger in the 1960s (Benjamin, 1966; Benjamin, 1967; Hamburger & Benjamin, 1969; Wiki). Arguments have been made both for (e.g., Bevan, 2012; Bellwether, 2019Bevan, 2019) and against (e.g., Curtis, 2009) a possible role of progestogens in terms of breast development. It is often claimed that progestogens can enhance breast development or are even required for full breast development in cisgender females and transfeminine people. With respect to the latter, it is sometimes said that progestogens are necessary for people to move from Tanner stage 4 to Tanner stage 5 pubertal breast development and that progestogens help to fill and round out the breasts (e.g., Vorherr, 1974a; Basson & Prior, 1998; Kaiser & Ho, 2015; Prior, 2011; Prior, 2019a; Prior, 2020). It has even been claimed by some that without progestogens, the breasts will remain conical and “pointy” like they are in the earlier Tanner stages. On the other extreme, certain critics have claimed that there are “no biologically significant progesterone receptor sites for biological males” and that progesterone is not produced during normal female puberty until after breast development has been fully completed (Barrett, 2009; Seal, 2017; Coxon & Seal, 2018; Price, McManus, & Barrett, 2019; Richards & Barrett, 2020). In turn, these particular authors have argued against the use of progestogens in transfeminine people in various of their publications (Google Scholar). In general, the use of progestogens in transfeminine people has longstandingly been controversial, with positions both for and against (Sam, 2020).

The purpose of this article is to review the available direct and circumstantial evidence on the topic of progestogens and breast development in order to help inform whether progestogen therapy may be able to enhance breast development in transfeminine people. Aside from an involvement in breast development, progestogens are not otherwise currently thought to be or known to be involved in physical feminization (e.g., Coleman et al., 2012; Gooren, 2016). In relation to this, the present article will limit its discussion to breast development with progestogens, and will not explore feminization in general.

Progestogen Therapy and Breast Development in Humans

Progestogens and Breast Development in Transfeminine People

At present, only a limited number of studies have assessed breast development with progestogen therapy in transfeminine people. These studies have employed either bioidentical progesterone or a progestin like MPA or CPA. The subject of and the available data on progestogens and breast development in transfeminine people has also been partly reviewed in papers including Wierckx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen (2014), Reisman, Goldstein, & Safer (2019), Patel et al. (2020), Patel et al. (2022), Milionis, Ilias, & Koukkou (2022), Coleman et al. (2022), and Berliere et al. (2023).

Orentreich & Durr (1974) was one of the earliest studies on breast development in transfeminine people. They employed combinations of estrogens and progestogens as well as gonadectomy to produce feminization and breast development in a case series of 5 transfeminine people. The employed estrogens were estradiol valerate 30 mg/2 weeks by intramuscular injection and oral conjugated estrogens 1.25–5.0 mg/day and the used progestogens were “60 mg medroxyprogesterone caproate” every 2 weeks by intramuscular injection and oral medroxyprogesterone acetate 0–10 mg/day. Medroxyprogesterone caproate (MPC) has never been used pharmaceutically, so this was likely a typo and the actual progestogen employed was likely either MPA or hydroxyprogesterone caproate (OHPC). The authors reported that estrogen and progestogen therapy produced modest to significant breast development in the transfeminine people that was not strictly dose-related and included clinical photographs of the breasts. They concluded that the breast development was comparable to that of adult cisgender women. Orentreich and colleagues also discussed the topic of lobuloalveolar maturation of the breasts, which was known to be progestogen-dependent, but noted that they had not done histological assessment and that the degree of lobuloalveolar development of the breasts does not necessarily correlate with clinical breast size per findings in cisgender women. The findings of Orentreich and colleagues are limited by methodological problems like lack of objective measurements, lack of estrogen-only controls, and the small sample size of only 5 transfeminine people, and hence the study is of limited value in terms of assessing the involvement of progestogens in breast development.

Meyer et al. (1986) assessed the effects of progestogens added to estrogen therapy on breast development and other clinical parameters in transfeminine people. Of the 60 transfeminine people in the study, 15 (25%) received an oral progestogen, usually MPA at a dosage of 10 mg/day, for “at least for a short time”, and with only 8 (13.3%) receiving progestogen therapy for the full treatment period. In an earlier report of the study, it was noted that in 90% of observation periods the dose was 10 mg/day and for the remainder it was 20 mg/day (Meyer et al., 1981). A dosage of 10 mg/day MPA is roughly comparable to luteal-phase progesterone exposure in terms of progestogenic potency (Wiki). Breast development was measured in the study via breast hemicircumference (Diagram). Progestogen therapy was reported to not modify estrogen-induced changes, including laboratory measurements, hormone levels, and physical parameters like weight and breast growth. The lack of apparent changes in hormone levels is unexpected, as MPA in higher-quality studies has shown clear testosterone suppression (e.g., Jain, Kwan, & Forcier, 2019; Wiki). Meyer and colleagues concluded that adding progestogens to estrogen does not seem to enhance breast development in transfeminine people. However, they noted that the number of individuals who received progestogens was small and further studies were needed.

Prior et al. (1986) and Prior, Vigna, & Watson (1989) studied estrogen, high-dose spironolactone (100–600 mg/day), and MPA (10–20 mg/day cylically or continuously) in transfeminine people who were either pre-hormone therapy or had previously been on higher doses of estrogens (and/or progestogens) without spironolactone prior to the study. The researchers reported that following 12 months of treatment with the study’s hormone therapy regimen, there was increased breast size and increased nipple development. Most individuals reached an A cup size, or approximately 8 to 14 cm in diameter of breast tissue, by the end of the study. Breast development was measured in part with photographic documentation. Although breast development reportedly improved, the researchers themselves noted that it was difficult to determine whether the enhanced breast development could be attributed to spironolactone or to MPA. Moreover, testosterone suppression was inadequate before the study and improved with the study’s hormone therapy regimen, which may have helped to improve breast development regardless of any potential direct progestogenic action of MPA on the breasts. Finally, it is possible that breast development with estrogen may not yet have been complete, and that the improved breast development may have simply been continued progression due to estrogen alone. In other publications, Jerilynn Prior, the lead study author, has claimed that progesterone enhances breast development, and has cited the preceding studies by her in support of this claim (Prior, 2011; Prior, 2019a; Prior, 2019b; Prior, 2020). However, her claim is not well-supported due to the study limitations discussed.

Dittrich et al. (2005) reported that the combination of oral estradiol valerate and a gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist for 2 years in transfeminine people resulted in self-reported breast cup sizes of C cup or greater in 5%, B cup in 30%, A cup in 35%, and less than A cup in 30%. They noted however that 70% of the individuals were unsatisfied with their breast development and wished to undergo breast augmentation surgery. The researchers claimed that the regimen had similar effectiveness in terms of feminization, including increases in breast size, compared to prior reported treatment regimens of ethinylestradiol and CPA. No other details or specifics were given. The claim about similar breast development to regimens containing CPA is relevant as CPA is a very strong progestogen at the doses used historically in transfeminine people (Aly, 2019). It should be cautioned however that this study did not actually employ or study progestogen therapy itself. In addition, self-reported breast cup size is a subjective and low-quality means of measuring breast development and size. As such, the findings of this study are of questionable value in terms of understanding progestogens and breast development.

Estrogen is primarily involved in ductal development of the breasts, whereas progesterone is mainly involved in lobuloalveolar development. Kanhai et al. (2000) compared internal histological breast tissue changes with estrogen and CPA 100 mg/day (i.e. very-high-dose progestogen) therapy in 14 transfeminine people versus nonsteroidal antiandrogen monotherapy with flutamide or bicalutamide in 2 cisgender men with prostate cancer. Both types of treatments block androgens, increase estrogen levels, and are known to induce breast development or gynecomastia at similarly high rates. However, nonsteroidal antiandrogen monotherapy differs from combined estrogen and progestogen therapy in that it lacks any progestogenic effects. In the transfeminine people, full lobuloalveolar formation was apparent in the biopsied breast tissue, whereas in the men with prostate cancer, only “moderate” and incomplete lobuloalveolar maturation was found. It was also noted that lobuloalveolar formation tended to regress upon discontinuation of CPA following gonadectomy in transfeminine people. The researchers concluded that progestogenic exposure is needed for the breasts to fully develop on a histological level and for the breast tissue of transfeminine people to completely mimic the histology of the mature female breast. While the findings of this study are interesting, they only concern tissue characteristics and do not actually provide any information about breast development in terms of physical form or appearance. With regard to this, tissue-level differences may or may not translate to relevant differences in for instance breast size or shape. As such, the study is of limited value in understanding whether progestogens improve breast development in transfeminine people in the ways that are actually valued.

Seal and colleagues conducted a retrospective chart review assessing clinical predictors for surgical breast augmentation in transfeminine people (Seal et al., 2012). In the transfeminine people who underwent breast augmentation, significantly more of them were taking spironolactone than were those who did not undergo breast augmentation. Conversely, the differential rates of use of specific antiandrogens were not significantly discordant between those who did and did not undergo breast augmentation in the case of the other prescribed antiandrogens, including cyproterone acetate, the 5α-reductase inhibitors, and GnRH analogues. However, this study had many methodological limitations, including the use of almost three dozen t-tests with no adjustment for multiple comparisons (and hence risk of false positives and concerns about p-hacking), small sample sizes for individual antiandrogens, use of undergoing breast augmentation as a surrogate for breast development with no actual physical measurement of the breasts or breast sizes, and a correlational design with lack of control for potential confounding variables. As such, the study does not show that different antiandrogens result in differences in breast development, and its findings must be considered with due caution.

Jain, Kwan, & Forcier (2019) studied sublingual estradiol and spironolactone with and without MPA in 92 transfeminine people. MPA was given at a dose of 5 to 10 mg/day sublingually or at a dose of 150 mg once every 3 months by intramuscular injection. Of 39 transfeminine people who received MPA, 26 (67%) self-reported improved breast development. No further details were provided, but measurement of breast development was presumably subjective and anecdotal. Igo & Visram (2021) studied addition of progesterone to hormone therapy in transfeminine people. Progesterone was provided as 100 mg micronized progesterone (probably oral) and was prescribed when progesterone was specifically requested by the patient or when the patient expressed dissatisfaction with feminization and/or breast development. Of 190 individuals, 51 (26.8%) received progesterone therapy. Treatment with progesterone on average began after 12.7 months of estradiol therapy, and the mean total follow-up time was 14.3 months of hormone therapy. Of those who received progesterone, only 6 (11.8%) reported benefit to breast development. No further details were provided, but as with other studies, breast development was likely quantified anecdotally via self-report. As breast development does not appear to have been objectively measured or compared to a control group in either Jain, Kwan, & Forcier (2019) or Igo & Visram (2021), the findings of these studies are limitedly informative.

Nolan and colleagues assessed the short-term effects of low-dose oral micronized progesterone on breast development in transfeminine people on stable hormone therapy in a prospective controlled study (Nolan et al., 2022a; Nolan et al., 2022b). Progesterone was given at a dose of 100 mg/day for 3 months to 23 transfeminine people and findings were compared to those of a control group of 19 transfeminine people. Breast development was measured using self-reported Tanner stage, with participants provided photographs of different Tanner stages to self-select from. At the end of the 3 months, Tanner stage was not significantly different between groups (mean 3.5, 95% CI 3.2–3.7 for progesterone vs. mean 3.6, 95% CI 3.3–3.9 for controls; p = 0.42). A limitation of this study is that oral progesterone has very low bioavailability and 100 mg/day oral progesterone achieves very low progesterone levels that are well below normal luteal-phase progesterone levels (Aly, 2018a; Wiki). As such, progestogenic exposure in this study, and notably also in Igo & Visram (2021) and other studies, is likely to have been inadequate. Besides the issue of progestogenic strength, the very short duration of the study (3 months) and the reliance on self-reported subjective Tanner stages (as opposed to more objective physical breast measurements) are also major limitations. In any case, this study is of higher quality than previous studies, and is notably likely to continue and report further follow-up at later points in the future.

Bahr et al. (2024) conducted a retrospective chart review at their clinic and compared 29 transfeminine people who had received progestogens versus 59 transfeminine people who had not. The form of progestogen used was oral or rectal progesterone in 93% of cases and MPA by intramuscular injection in the remaining 7% of cases. Of those who took progesterone, 25 (93%) used it orally and 2 (7%) used oral progesterone capsules rectally. Progestogen doses were not reported, except that 100 mg progesterone capsules were employed. Most of those in the progestogen-treated group (59%) had started it 1 to 6 months following initiation of standard hormone therapy. The researchers found that progestogen-treated group had significantly better self-reported breast development satisfaction (rated as satisfied, neutral, or unsatisfied) compared to the group that did not receive progestogens at 6 months (satisfied: 53.8% vs. 19.6%; p = 0.004) and 9 months (satisfied: 71.4% vs. 20.8%; p = 0.003) of hormone therapy. Limitations of this study include the lack of objective measurement of breast development, the restrospective nature of the study, and the lack of randomization of treatment, among others.

Aside from the above studies, a variety of other studies have also reported breast development with estrogen and CPA in transfeminine people. These studies have often employed objective physical measurements of breast development (e.g., breast volume, breast–chest difference, breast cup size, breast hemicircumference). However, they have lacked comparison groups, thereby precluding comparison of progestogenic versus non-progestogenic hormone therapy. In addition, CPA is unusual among progestogens in that it is employed at very high doses in transfeminine people (Aly, 2019), which may result in different and potentially stunted outcomes in terms of breast development than more physiological progestogenic exposure. As such, most studies of breast development with estrogen and CPA in transfeminine people have not been discussed in the present section and are instead discussed elsewhere in this article (see the section below). In any case, to briefly summarize the findings, breast development in transfeminine people with estrogen and CPA has generally been poor in these studies. The outcomes have included incomplete maturation in terms of Tanner staging (stage 2–4), small cup sizes, small breast volumes, and breasts much smaller in size than those in cisgender women.

The findings from the preceding studies in transfeminine people are of very low-quality due to methodological limitations, including lack of control groups, lack of randomization, reliance on poor measures of breast development (e.g., subjective and self-report) rather than objective physical measurements (Wiki), short treatment durations, and small sample sizes, among others. This may explain the conflicting results of the studies. More research is still needed to assess the influence of progestogens on breast development in transfeminine people. There is specifically a need for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of feminizing hormone therapy with versus without progestogen therapy that employ objective measures of breast development, have adequate sample sizes, and have sufficient follow-up durations. Additional variables like progestogen type, route, dose, and timing of introduction would also be of value to explore. A 2014 review on hormone therapy in transfeminine people summarizes the state of research on progestogens and breast development in transfeminine people, with their conclusions still holding true today (Wierckx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen, 2014):

Our knowledge concerning the natural history and effects of different cross-sex hormone therapies on breast development in trans women is extremely sparse and based on low quality of evidence. Current evidence does not provide evidence that progestogens enhance breast development in trans women. Neither do they prove the absence of such an effect. This prevents us from drawing any firm conclusion at this moment and demonstrates the need for further research to clarify these important clinical questions.

Accordingly, reviews and guidelines have concluded that there is currently no reliable evidence that progestogens included in hormone therapy are of benefit or are not of benefit for breast development in transfeminine people (Wierckx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen, 2014; Reisman, Goldstein, & Safer, 2019; Patel et al., 2022; Milionis, Ilias, & Koukkou, 2022; Coleman et al., 2022; Berliere et al., 2023).

Future Studies Currently Underway

Several studies of progesterone and other progestogens in transfeminine people are currently underway. These studies include (1) an RCT of oral progesterone added to hormone therapy by Sandeep Dhindsa and colleagues in St. Louis, Missouri in the United States (ClinicalTrials.gov; MediFind; ICH GCP); (2) a prospective observational study and/or RCT of addition of oral progesterone to hormone therapy by Ada Cheung and colleagues in Melbourne, Australia (University of Melbourne; University of Melbourne); (3) an RCT of estradiol plus spironolactone versus estradiol plus CPA also by Ada Cheung and colleagues (update: see below) (ANZCTR; WHO ICTRP; Trans Health Research [Flyer] [Poster]; University of Melbourne); and (4) a large RCT of oral progesterone at different doses added to hormone therapy by Martin den Heijer and colleagues at the Vrije Universiteit University Medical Center (VUMC) in Amsterdam, the Netherlands (Dijkman et al., 2023a; General Info/Links; Info Sheet Dutch; Info Sheet English Translated). Unfortunately however, all of the studies using progesterone employ oral progesterone, which has major bioavailability and potency problems (Aly, 2018a; Wiki). In any case, it was said that the VUMC researchers may follow their trial up with studies of other progesterone routes (General Info/Links). The preceding studies may provide more insight on the question of whether progestogen therapy is of therapeutic benefit to breast development in transfeminine people.

Progestogens and Breast Development in Cisgender Females

To date, there appear to be no useful studies on breast development with progesterone or other progestogens in cisgender females. There seem to mostly only be a few brief and conflicting anecdotal clinical statements in this area that are scattered throughout the literature. These include the following literature excerpts, which are specifically in the context of progestogens as part of puberty induction in cisgender girls and women with delayed or absent puberty due to hypogonadism:

I […] performed studies on three women lacking mammary development and exhibiting signs of marked hypogonadism. […] Corpus luteum extract, 5 international units daily for a period of thirty days, when given alone produced no detectable change in the breasts. This is in accord with the experimental observations on animals of Turner,2 Corner 3 and others. When, however, patients were given alternate daily injections of 1 international unit of progesterone and from 20,000 to 50,000 international units of estrone or of estradiol benzoate, breast growth was more rapid than that produced by the estrogenic hormones alone. The simultaneous use of the corpus luteum and estrogenic therapy definitely produced a much firmer breast growth, which was distinctly lobular to palpation, whereas the growth produced by the estrogenic hormones alone was smooth and the borders of the glandular tissue were difficult to define. Rapid regression in the size of the breasts followed the omission of the hormone injections, but the regression was less rapid when the combined therapy had been used. [MacBryde (1939)]

There are authorities who consider that breast growth is better if a progestogen is combined with oestrogen for the latter part of the cycle of treatment (Capraro, 1971). Shearman (1971) employs sequential therapy in his cases. Huffman (1971) however, does not believe that there is any improvement with the addition of progestogens. [Dewhurst (1971a)]

The effects of progesterone on the human breast remain obscure. Although widely stated to cause glandular development, the evidence for this is slender (Benson et al 1959). [Shearman (1972a)]

Many people use oestrogens alone, but the addition of a progestin for 6 or 10 days each month gives much better cycle control and appears to cause better breast development. [Shearman (1972b)]

Some authorities consider that breast growth is better if a progestogen is given for the latter part of each course of treatment. [Capraro & Dewhurst (1975)]

It has been suggested that progestins be added during the last week of each cycle of estrogen therapy in order to develop more rounded breasts rather than the conical breasts many of these patients develop, but we have been unable to detect any difference in breast contour with or without progestins. [Davajan & Kletzky (1979)]

I have been satisfied that the addition of a progestogen was necessary to get a good breast response to hormone treatment although the progestogen, as I have said, is required after the first year if the uterus is present. [Dewhurst (1982)]

In addition to the preceding instances, Werner (1935) and Geschickter (1945) assessed the effects of progesterone on the breasts in cisgender women. Werner (1935) attempted to induce lactation in 8 surgically gonadectomized cisgender women with combinations of estrogen, progesterone, and prolactin, all in the form of crude extracts by injection. In two women who were given progesterone, he claimed that a marked increase in the size of the breasts beyond that with estrogen alone was observed. Additionally, he claimed that the breasts were more firm, the glandular tissue “more tortuous and nodular”, and the nipples more prominent. He was not successful in inducing lactation in the women in this study. The doses of hormones used were unclear as they were in the form of extracts, and were likely supraphysiological, potentially pregnancy-like due to the nature of the experiment. Werner’s study was also briefly discussed by Nelson (1936), among other citations. Geschickter (1945) observed lobuloalveolar growth on histological examination with administration of progesterone for 6 weeks to 2 months in one woman but not in another woman. However, the exterior physical changes of the breasts were not assessed or reported by this author and hence his findings are limitedly informative.

Surprisingly, there have been few analogous studies of the effects of progestogens on the breasts in cisgender girls and women following the preceding reports and anecdotes. Although there are very little data on progestogens and breast growth in cisgender females, clinical studies are finally starting to look more closely at the specifics of hormonal medications, including progestogens, in terms of breast development in girls undergoing puberty induction (e.g., Rodari et al., 2023). As such, future studies may provide more insight on the subject of progestogens and breast development in cisgender females.

Progesterone and its Physiological Role in Breast Development in Humans

Progesterone and Breast Development in Puberty

The role of progesterone in breast development and its possible usefulness for helping with breast development in transfeminine hormone therapy can be informed by the normal biological circumstances of puberty in cisgender females. Puberty in cisgender girls usually starts around age 11 (range 8–13 years) and completes around age 15 years (range 12–19 years), taking on average 3 to 4 years (but with a range of about 1.5–6 years in most cases) (Schauffler, 1942; Marshall & Tanner, 1969; Marshall, 1978; Begley, Firth, & Hoult, 1980; Drife, 1986). Progesterone essentially does not appear during puberty until ovulatory menstrual cycles begin. Menarche, the onset of menstruation and hence of menstrual cycling, occurs on average at Tanner breast stage 4 or about 13 years of age, although it occurs at Tanner breast stage 3 or Tanner breast stage 5 in significant subsets of girls (26% for Tanner stage 3, 62% for Tanner stage 4, and 10% for Tanner stage 5) (Marshall & Tanner, 1969; Marshall, 1978; Drife, 1986; Hillard, 2007). Hence, the appearance of progesterone in normal female puberty is a relatively late event (Scott et al., 1950; Marshall, 1978; Begley, Firth, & Hoult, 1980; Drife, 1986), and most breast development appears to be complete by menarche and thus by the time that progesterone is first produced (Huffman, Dewhurst, & Capraro, 1981; Drife, 1982). Moreover, a small but significant subset of girls reaches Tanner breast stage 5 and hence fully developed breasts before menarche (Edmonds, 1989), which suggests that progesterone may not be essential for complete pubertal breast development.

The reproductive axis in pubertal and adolescent cisgender girls is immature (Rosenfield, 2013; Gunn et al., 2018; Carlson & Shaw, 2019; Sun et al., 2019). In the first 1 to 2 years postmenarche, most menstrual cycles are anovulatory (i.e., ovulation does not occur) (Döring, 1963 [Table]; Apter, 1980; Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Talbert et al., 1985; Venturoli et al., 1987; Rosenfield, 2013; Gunn et al., 2018; Carlson & Shaw, 2019). Without ovulation, the corpus luteum doesn’t form from a ruptured ovarian follicle and progesterone production doesn’t commence. Only about half of menstrual cycles are ovulatory by Tanner breast stage 5 (Talbert et al., 1985). In addition, menstrual cycles are unusually long for some time after menarche (e.g., 50 days vs. 28 days for adult cycles) and thus there are fewer menstrual cycles per reproductive year (Rosenfield, 2013; Gunn et al., 2018; Carlson & Shaw, 2019). Luteal-phase progesterone levels are also lower in postmenarche adolescents than in adulthood even when ovulation does occur (McArthur, 1966 [Figure]; Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Apter et al., 1987; Venturoli et al., 1987; Venturoli et al., 1989; Sun et al., 2019). Consequently, progesterone exposure is sporadic and relatively limited even during late female puberty. Moreover, this is the case not only by the time of Tanner stage 5, but for many years after it as well. It takes more than 6 years after menarche for menstrual cycling to become fully mature and consistently ovulatory (Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Venturoli et al., 1987; Carlson & Shaw, 2019). Over this period of time, the rate of ovulatory cycles increases progressively until it reaches approximately 100% (Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Venturoli et al., 1987; Carlson & Shaw, 2019). Only then is full adult-level exposure to progesterone finally achieved (Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Venturoli et al., 1987).

Only a handful of studies and sources have reported progesterone levels during puberty across Tanner stages or by age in cisgender girls (e.g., Sizonenko, 1978 [Graph]; Kühnel, 2000; Lee, 2001 [Table]; Aly, 2020a). They corroborate the above findings with regard to limited progesterone exposure during puberty. The “A Girl’s First Period Study” is an ambitious research project announced in 2022 that aims to better characterize reproductive hormone levels in pubertal and adolescent girls and may shed more light on the physiological role of progesterone during puberty (Lucien et al., 2022). The researchers have specifically highlighted the possible role of progesterone in breast development as part of their interests:

Does exposure to low levels of [progesterone (P4)], as occurs before menarche, during anovulatory cycles with some degree of follicle luteinization, and during early, immature ovulatory cycles play an important role in normal breast development during puberty? This question has important clinical implications as hormone replacement during puberty does not typically include low-dose P4; rather, it is conducted using a staggered approach of estrogen-only therapy followed by the addition of full adult doses of exogenous P4 only after 2 years or when breakthrough bleeding occurs.27 This is done to avoid development of tubular breasts, although there are limited data linking early P4 exposure to suboptimal breast development.28

Taken together, production of progesterone is a late event in normal female puberty, and even once it does begin, exposure to progesterone is low and sporadic until well after puberty has completed. Moreover, a subset of girls complete breast development before progesterone production starts. These facts call into some question the role of progesterone in breast development in female puberty, as most breast development appears to be complete prior to the appearance of progesterone. However, more research is still needed on the role of progesterone in breast development during normal puberty.

On the basis of normal female puberty, it seems it may be advisable that if progestogens are introduced in an attempt to enhance breast development in transfeminine people, their introduction be delayed until after 2 or 3 years of hormone therapy, so as to mimic the normal progestogenic exposure of puberty.

Progesterone and Breast Development in Pregnancy

During pregnancy, under the influence of ovarian hyperstimulation and placental formation, there are profound changes in hormonal profiles, including of hormones like estrogen, progesterone, and prolactin, among many others (Table 1). Comparing hormone levels during the menstrual cycle to those during the third trimester of pregnancy, estradiol levels increase on the order of 100-fold, progesterone levels increase on the order of 10- to 20-fold, and prolactin levels increase by around 10-fold (Table 1). Levels of numerous other hormones also change considerably during pregnancy, for instance other estrogens besides estradiol, androgens, gonadotropins (e.g., human choronic gonadotropin or hCG), human placental lactogen (hPL), relaxin, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), cortisol, aldosterone, growth hormone (GH), and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), among others (Goodman, 2009 [Figure]; Mesiano, 2019). These hormones are variously produced by the ovaries, the placenta, and the pituitary gland, among other glands. In response to the myriad hormonal changes during pregnancy, there are dramatic changes to the breasts, which prepare the mother for postpartum lactation and breastfeeding.

Table 1: Changes in hormone levels (estradiol, progesterone, and prolactin) during normal pregnancy:

HormoneNon-PregnantFirst TrimesterSecond TrimesterThird Trimester
Estradiol100 (~5–750) pg/mL1,000–5,000 pg/mL5,000–15,000 pg/mL10,000–40,000 pg/mL
Progesterone8.9 (1.0–24) ng/mLa22 (5–75 ng/mL)35 (15–85) ng/mL102 (25–280) ng/mL
Prolactin13.0 (4.6–37) ng/mL16 (3.2–43 ng/mL)49 (13–166) ng/mL113 (13–318) ng/mL

Note: Values are median (range) or range. Footnotes: a Specifically during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. Sources: estradiol (Aly, 2018b; Wiki; Wiki); progesterone (Kühnel, 2000; Aly, 2020a; Wiki; Wiki); and prolactin (Kühnel, 2000; Wiki).

Prior to pregnancy, there is significant although fairly minimal lobuloalveolar development of the breasts with each menstrual-cycle luteal phase (Scott et al., 1950; Drife, 1984; Drife, 1989; Drife, 1990; Pocock, Richards, & Richards, 2013; Johnson & Cutler, 2016; Alekseev, 2021). During pregnancy however, the breasts undergo much more considerable lobuloalveolar development and achieve full maturity. This allows for milk production and lactation following childbirth. During pregnancy, the breasts progressively and considerably increase in size (Hytten, 1954a; Hytten, 1954b; Baird, Hytten, & Thomson,1958; Hytten & Thomson, 1965; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hytten & Leitch, 1971b; Hytten, 1976; Thoresen & Wesche, 1988; Cox et al., 1994; Whiteley, 1994; Cox et al., 1999; Cregan & Hartmann, 1999; Kent et al., 1999; Galbarczyk, 2011; Abduljalil et al., 2012; Bayer et al., 2014; Lawrence & Lawrence, 2015; Żelaźniewicz & Pawłowski, 2015; Dallman et al., 2017; Drąsutis, 2017; Żelaźniewicz & Pawłowski, 2019). Quantitative clinical studies have found the breasts to increase on average by about 100 to 300 mL (range -20 to 880 mL) in volume, or by about 200 to 400 g in mass, going from early pregnancy to late pregnancy or early postpartum (Hytten & Thomson, 1965; Hytten & Thomson, 1968; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hytten & Leitch, 1971b; Hytten, 1976; Thoresen & Wesche, 1988; Whiteley, 1994; Hartmann et al., 1996; Cox et al., 1999; Cregan & Hartmann, 1999; Kent et al., 1999; Wright, 2015; Bayer et al., 2014; Żelaźniewicz & Pawłowski, 2015; Drąsutis, 2017; Żelaźniewicz & Pawłowski, 2019). The breasts can reportedly increase as much two to three times in size in some women (Greydanus et al., 2010). There is marked variation between individuals in the breast size increases during pregnancy (Hytten & Thomson, 1965; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013; Bayer et al., 2014). Increases in breast size are inversely associated with age, with considerably greater increases in younger women than in older women (e.g., +234–258 mL in <20 years vs. +79–131 mL in >30 years) (Hytten & Baird, 1958; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a [Excerpt]; Hytten, 1976). In addition to overall breast size, the nipples and areolae increase in size during pregnancy (Hytten & Baird, 1958; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Rohn, 1989; Cox et al., 1999; Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013; Thanaboonyawat et al., 2013; Park et al., 2014). They also become more darkly pigmented, reaching a dark brown or even black color (Dickson & Hewer, 1950; Thody & Smith, 1977; Wade, Wade, & Jones, 1978; Wong & Ellis, 1984; Elling & Powell, 1997; Muzaffar, Hussain, & Haroon, 1998; Muallem & Rubeiz, 2006; Nussbaum & Benedetto, 2006; Olanrewaju et al., 2017). The breasts become capable of lactation by 3 to 4 months of pregnancy (Walker, Baker, & Lamb, 2013; Pipkin, 2019; Pocock, Richards, & Richards, 2013; Wright, 2015; Lawrence & Lawrence, 2015). However, maturation of the breasts for lactation does not appear to be complete until at least about 6.5 months of pregnancy (Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013). Photographic timelines of women throughout pregnancy provide a visual impression of the breast changes that occur during this time (caution—NSFW: Reddit; More).

There are large and dramatic changes in levels of numerous hormones during pregnancy, and the exact hormones responsible for the breast changes during pregnancy are not known (Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hytten, 1976). However, it is considered likely, on the basis of animal studies, that a variety of hormones, including estrogen, progesterone, prolactin, placental lactogen, glucocorticoids, and growth hormone, are all importantly involved in different aspects of the maturation (Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hytten, 1976; Cox et al., 1999). Moreover, in a quantitative clinical study of breast changes during pregnancy, increases in breast volume and areola size were positively correlated with levels of hPL, while increases in nipple size were positively correlated with levels of prolactin (Cox et al., 1999). Progesterone and prolactin have specifically been implicated in the lobuloalveolar development of the breasts during pregnancy (Bässler, 1970; Lee & Ormandy, 2012; Obr & Edwards, 2012). Both hormones appear to be independently essential in normal lobuloalveolar growth per animal studies (Obr & Edwards, 2012; McNally & Stein, 2017; Hannan et al., 2023). Prolactin likewise appears to be essential in humans, based on case reports of lactation failure in women with isolated prolactin deficiency (Buhimschi, 2004). Conversely, hPL may not be essential for lactation based on case reports of normal lactation in women with very low levels of hPL during pregnancy (Gaede, Trolle, & Pedersen, 1978; Hannan et al., 2023).

Following childbirth and lactation, the breasts undergo a process known as post-lactational involution and return to a pre-pregnancy-like state (Dickson & Hewer, 1950; Ingleby, Moore, & Gershon-Cohen, 1957; Harley, 1969; Gershon-Cohen, 1970; Petrakis, 1978; Huffman, Dewhurst, & Capraro, 1981; Drife, 1986; Caro, 1987; Tanos & Brisken, 2008; Radisky & Hartmann, 2009; Fridriksdottir, Petersen, & Rønnov-Jessen, 2011; Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013; Sun et al., 2018; Alex, Bhandary, & McGuire, 2020). This involves massive cell death and regression of the lobuloalveolar development and other breast changes that occurred during pregnancy (Radisky & Hartmann, 2009; Alex, Bhandary, & McGuire, 2020). With involution, there is, on the basis of quantitative clinical studies, a complete reversion to pre-pregnancy breast size, or even to a slightly smaller breast size (Kent et al., 1999 [Figure]; Jernström et al., 2005; Dorgan et al., 2013; Lim et al., 2018). The same reversion has also been observed in gestational macromastia (breast hypertrophy of pregnancy), with striking and complete or near-complete regressions in breast size reported—although often with concomitant sagging and deformity that necessitates surgical intervention (Moss, 1968; van der Meulen, 1974 [Figure]; Swelstad et al., 2006; Naik et al., 2015). Following involution, it is also impossible to reliably distinguish between nulliparous and parous breasts even with internal histological examination (Drife, 1986). However, the parous breasts are not exactly the same as they were before pregnancy—the breasts remain more complex on a histological level (Dickson & Hewer, 1950; Gershon-Cohen, 1970; Hytten, 1976; Drife, 1986; Drife, 1989; Jeruss, 2006; Fridriksdottir, Petersen, & Rønnov-Jessen, 2011; Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013; Lewin, 2016; Sun et al., 2019), tend to be looser, more flaccid, and more pendulous due to stretching of skin and ligaments (Begley, Firth, & Hoult, 1980; Duncan, 2010; Rauh et al., 2013; Lewin, 2016), and the nipples and areolae remain more maturely developed and pigmented (Dickson & Hewer, 1950; Hytten & Baird, 1958; Hytten, 1976; Nussbaum & Benedetto, 2006; Sanuki, Fukuma, & Uchida, 2009; Thanaboonyawat et al., 2013; Park et al., 2014). In terms of subjective perceptions, some women perceive their breasts to be larger following pregnancy, whereas others perceive them to be smaller (Rauh et al., 2013; Lewin, 2016). Pregnancy can temporarily improve breast size in women with small breasts (Capraro & Dewhurst, 1975; Petrakis, 1978; Huffman, Dewhurst, & Capraro, 1981), but it has been said that the subsequent regressions in breast size after pregnancy can be “disturbing” (Capraro & Dewhurst, 1975). Following the first pregnancy and post-lactational involution, the breasts undergo the same cycle of expansion and regression with each subsequent pregnancy (Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013).

On the basis of the preceding, in spite of rather extreme hormonal stimulation, the breast changes of pregnancy, although quite dramatic, are essentially temporary and fully reversible, remaining only as long as continuous hormonal exposure is maintained. This hormonal stimulation includes exposure to extremely high levels of progesterone. It would seem, based on pregnancy, that once pubertal breast development is completed, the breasts are rather unamenable to permanent further growth, whether that involves exposure to progestogens or to a variety of other hormones known to act on the breasts.

Breast Composition and Lobuloalveolar Tissue Proportion

The breasts are made up of two main types of tissue: (1) epithelial tissue, the actual functional internal mammary glandular tissue, including ducts and alveoli or lobules; and (2) stromal tissue, a mixture of connective tissue and adipose (fat) tissue. Lobuloalveolar development refers to growth and maturation of the alveoli and lobules, and hence is a form of epithelial or glandular development. Progestogens are involved primarily in lobuloalveolar development of the breasts, which is the type of breast development that is necessary for lactation and breastfeeding and that occurs mainly during pregnancy.

In women who are not pregnant or lactating, studies have found that only about 5 to 20% of the volume of the breasts is composed of epithelial tissue on average, while the remaining 80 to 95% is composed of stromal tissue (Hutson, Cowen, & Bird, 1985; Drife, 1986; Drife, 1989; Bryant et al., 1998; Gertig et al., 1999; Howard & Gusterson, 2000; Cline & Wood, 2006; Lorincz & Sukumar, 2006; Wilson et al., 2006; Xu et al., 2010; Pandya & Moore, 2011; Hagisawa, Shimura, & Arisaka, 2012; Sandhu et al., 2016; Rosenfield, Cooke, & Radovick, 2021; Wiki). More specifically, one major study in in reproductive-age women found that the breasts are about 10 to 20% epithelial tissue, 10 to 35% fat tissue, and 60 to 80% connective tissue (Hutson, Cowen, & Bird, 1985; Wilson et al., 2006). Conflictingly however, a couple of studies that employed mammography have reported higher breast glandular proportions ranging from 35 to 48% (Klein et al., 1997; Jamal et al., 2004; Duncan, 2010). Aside from glandular tissue, other studies have found breast fat percentages of mean 26 to 48% (range 2 to 78%) (Lejour, 1994; Lejour, 1997; Vandeweyer & Hertens, 2002). Similarly to the findings of most studies of women’s breasts in general, only a small proportion of the breasts is glandular tissue (e.g., 1–7%) in women who have macromastia (breast hypertrophy, or extremely large breasts) (Bames, 1948; Cruz-Korchin et al., 2001).

During pregnancy and lactation in humans, the breasts undergo dramatic changes, and epithelial tissue comes to make up a much greater proportion of the breasts (Ramsay et al., 2005; Bland, Copeland, & Klimberg, 2018). In fact, sources state that glandular tissue comprises a majority of the breast during pregnancy and lactation, with one study of lactating women finding that the breasts were composed 63% (range 46–83%) of glandular tissue (Ramsay et al., 2005). This is not merely due to lobuloalveolar development and glandular growth, but is also due to a marked reversible reduction in mammary adipose tissue (Wang & Scherer, 2019; Alex, Bhandary, & McGuire, 2020). In any case, under more normal physiological circumstances and progesterone exposure, the contribution of lobuloalveolar tissue to the size of the breasts would appear to be quite small. In relation to this, outside of pregnancy levels of progesterone, the significance of progestogen-mediated breast lobuloalveolar growth in terms of breast size is unclear but seemingly questionable (Orentreich & Durr, 1974; Wierkcx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen, 2014).

Breast Development in Cisgender Women with Complete Androgen Insensitivity Syndrome and Consequent Absence of Progesterone

It has been claimed that progesterone helps to move transfeminine people and cisgender females from Tanner stage 4 to 5 breast development and that it helps to round out the breasts (e.g., Vorherr, 1974a; Prior, 2011; Prior, 2019a; Prior, 2020). It has also sometimes been claimed in the online transgender community that cisgender women with complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS), an experiment of nature of women who lack progesterone, are stuck at Tanner stage 4 breast growth and have “cone-shaped” breasts due to their absence of progesterone. In actuality however, there is no good evidence at this time that progesterone is required for normal pubertal breast development, that progesterone is needed to reach Tanner stage 5, or that it helps to round out the breasts. Such claims are contradicted by extensive available literature and evidence, including notably the literature on CAIS women themselves.

Women with CAIS are individuals who have a 46,XY karyotype (i.e., are genetically “male”), testes, and who would otherwise have physically developed as males, but did not because they have a mutation in the gene encoding the androgen receptor that makes them completely insensitive to the effects of androgens. There are also incomplete forms of the syndrome, like partial androgen insensitivity syndrome (PAIS) and mild androgen insensitivity syndrome (MAIS). CAIS women have a male-typical hormonal profile, generated by their testes, including high male-range levels of testosterone, low female-range estradiol levels, and negligible progesterone levels (Wiki; Table). Instead of developing physically as males however, CAIS women are perfectly phenotypically female, with a normal female body, vagina, and breasts (Wiki; Photo). Their testosterone has been unable to masculinize them, while their estradiol, unopposed by androgens, is able to fully feminize them. The internal reproductive system in CAIS women is essentially that of an underdeveloped male, with testes instead of ovaries, and no uterus. The vagina is often short and is blind-ending with no cervix, which is related to their lack of a uterus. CAIS women are also described as feminine in terms of behavior, gender, and sexuality.

Women with CAIS have breast development that is described throughout the literature as “good”, “excellent”, “normal”, “full”, “complete”, “well-developed”, “overdeveloped”, “generous”, “enhanced”, “typically above-average”, “large”, and even “voluptuous” (Morris, 1953; Simmer, Pion, & Dignam, 1965; Hertz et al., 1966; Valentine, 1969; Adams et al., 1970; Polani, 1970; Weisberg, Malkasian, & Pratt, 1970; Dewhurst, 1971b; Perez-Palacios & Jaffe, 1972; Glenn, 1976; Dewhurst & Spence, 1977; Rutgers & Scully, 1991; Patterson, McPhaul, & Hughes, 1994; Quigley et al., 1995; McPhaul, 2002; Galani et al., 2008; Oakes et al., 2008; Tiefenbacher & Daxenbichler, 2008; Barbieri, 2019). John McLean Morris, the gynecologist who reviewed and summarized all of the existing scientific literature on CAIS women in 1953 (including 82 cases) and gave their condition the now-abandoned name “testicular feminization”, described their breasts as “unusually large” and “jumbo-sized” (Morris, 1953; Quigley et al., 1995). He additionally said in his famous 1953 review that they had “normal female breasts, often with a tendency to be overdeveloped” (Morris, 1953). Per another author, “Probably under no other circumstance does breast development in the [‘male’] reach the florid degree seen in testicular feminization” (Wilson, 1968).

Despite claims that CAIS women have generous breast sizes however, in actuality, some CAIS women have large breasts, while some have small breasts, with one study finding a wide range of breast size measurements of 16×14 cm to 41×31 cm (Wisniewski et al., 2000). Moreover, the breasts of CAIS women have never been directly compared to those of normal women. Hence, there are no clear data at this time that the breasts of CAIS women are actually larger than average for women. The variation in breast growth in CAIS women parallels the same large variation in breast size between individuals that is seen in cisgender women in general. Here is a collection of photos of CAIS women and their breast development from published case reports and reviews throughout the literature. As can be seen from these photos, breast development in CAIS women is normal and often excellent, although subject to considerable variation between individuals in terms of breast size and shape as in women generally.

If CAIS women truly do have enhanced breast development and breast sizes compared to normal women, it may be that their androgen insensitivity, and hence lack of inhibition of estrogen-mediated breast development by androgens, is responsible for this (Wilson, 1968; Sobrinho, Kase, & Grunt, 1971; Andler & Zachmann, 1979; Zachmann et al., 1986; Patterson, McPhaul, & Hughes, 1994; Barbieri, 2019). Another theoretical possibility is that the high testosterone levels may be aromatized into greater amounts of estradiol locally within the breasts and other tissues in CAIS women and that this may somehow allow for enhanced breast development (Ladjouze & Donaldson, 2019).

Baron evaluated a total of 41 people with androgen insensitivity syndrome (AIS) and found that 97% of CAIS women had normal breast development while 63% of individuals with “incomplete AIS” (likely PAIS) had normal breast development (Baron, 1993; Baron, 1994a; Baron, 1994b). In another earlier published study of 50 CAIS females, by Sir Christopher John Dewhurst, 76% were rated as having full breast development, 14% as having moderate breast development, 10% as having “mild” breast development, and 0% as having absent breast development (Dewhurst, 1971b). Hence, based on findings in large samples of CAIS females, most to almost all have normal or full breast development. That a minority of CAIS females have had less breast growth may be due to factors like low and inadequate estradiol levels in some individuals, young age at time of assessment by which breast development has not fully completed, and/or a small subset of women in general having underdeveloped or small breasts.

CAIS women have never been described in the literature as having “cone-shaped”, “pointy”, or otherwise abnormal breasts. The only exception is that they are often said to have nipples and areolas that are described as “juvenile”, “infantile”, “small”, “pale”, and “non-pigmented” (e.g., Photo) (e.g., Morris, 1953; Morris & Mahesh, 1963; Simmer, Pion, & Dignam, 1965; Dewhurst, 1967; Khoo & Mackay, 1972; Perez-Palacios & Jaffe, 1972; Dewhurst & Spence, 1977). This has been said to be the case regardless of breast size or maturation (Khoo & Mackay, 1972). A possible reason for this phenomenon is that estradiol levels in CAIS women are relatively low, only about 35 pg/mL (130 pmol/L) on average (Wiki; Table). This is relevant as estrogens are known to concentration-dependently produce nipple and areolar pigmentation and enlargement (e.g., Davis et al., 1945 [Figure]; Kennedy & Nathanson, 1953). In contrast to estrogens, progestogens have not been implicated in nipple or areolar pigmentation. Hence, it seems that higher estrogen levels may be necessary for full ault-like nipple and areolar maturation.

CAIS women are able to reach Tanner stage 5 breast development and hence full maturation of the breasts similarly to normal women (Quigley, 1988; Quigley et al., 1995; Gordon & Laufer, 2005; Finkenzeller & Loveless, 2007; Cheikhelard et al., 2008; Ramos et al., 2018; Arya et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2021). One gynecologist, Robert Rebar, has claimed in his publications over several decades, including in reviews and book chapters, that CAIS women usually only reach Tanner stage 3 breast development (Kustin & Rebar, 1987; Rebar, 1988; Rebar, 1990; Simpson & Rebar, 1990; Rebar, 1993; Rebar, 1996; Wellons & Rebar, 2013; Wellons, Weeber, & Rebar, 2017). However, this claim conflicts with the statements of other researchers and with studies and case reports of CAIS women. In one book chapter, Rebar said that CAIS females undergo breast development and feminization and that the breasts contain normal ductal and glandular tissue, but stated that “the areolae are pale and poorly developed (Tanner stage 3)” (Rebar, 1993). This suggests that he may have been meant Tanner stage 3 in terms of nipple and areolar maturation rather than breast growth as a whole (Rebar, 1993). Aside from CAIS females, even individuals with PAIS often have substantial breast growth and female-like breasts (e.g., Saito et al., 2014; Lee et al., 2015). Additionally, PAIS females treated with estrogen therapy have similarly been reported to reach Tanner breast stage 5 (Guaragna-Filho et al., 2023).

Despite their often large breasts, CAIS women are said to have relatively little breast glandular tissue, as opposed to fat and connective tissue, and to have minimal breast lobuloalveolar development (Morris, 1953; Morris & Mahesh, 1963; Simmer, Pion, & Dignam, 1965; McMillan, 1966; Perez-Palacios & Jaffe, 1972; Dewhurst & Spence, 1977; Shapiro, 1982). This is in accordance with the lack of progesterone in CAIS women, since progesterone is important in mediating lobuloalveolar growth. The retained breast sizes of CAIS women despite reduced glandular and lobuloalveolar structures is consistent with the fact that the breasts are composed mostly of stromal adipose and connective tissue. Hence, as touched on previously in this article, greater glandular or lobuloalveolar formation in the breasts may not necessarily translate to greater breast size, which seems readily apparent in CAIS women.

The normal and excellent breast development of CAIS women is notable because these individuals, owing to their testes and hence absence of significant gonadal progesterone production, have very low and negligible levels of progesterone (Wiki; Table; Barbieri, 2019). CAIS womens’ normal breast development, often large breasts, and ability to reach complete breast maturation, as measured by the Tanner scale, are collectively suggestive that progesterone is not required for normal or complete pubertal breast development (Barbieri, 2019). In any case, it must be noted and cautioned again that the breasts of CAIS women have never been directly compared to those in normal women. In addition, quantitative studies of the breasts of CAIS women are very scarce, and much of our knowledge in this area is based on anecdotal clinical experience and subjective breast evaluation. This is in large part due to the rarity of CAIS women and the difficulty in obtaining decent samples of them for study. Furthermore, CAIS women also have other differences from regular women besides their lack of progesterone, for instance their relatively low circulating estradiol levels, high testosterone levels (which can be aromatized into estradiol within tissues like the breasts), androgen insensitivity, and XY karyotype, among others. Hence, the insights into breast development provided by CAIS women come with a variety of caveats.

Interestingly, in spite of their well-developed breasts, breast cancer has never been reported in CAIS women, and would appear to be very rare in these individuals (Aly, 2020b; Aly, 2020c). This may be related to factors like the lack of progesterone and lobuloalveolar maturation in CAIS women and/or their absence of a second X chromosome (Aly, 2020b; Aly, 2020c). CAIS women suggest that breast cancer is not an inherent eventual consequence of excellent breast development.

Menstrual Cycles and Temporary Cyclic Breast Enlargement

The breasts fluctuate in size across the menstrual cycle, with significant enlargement apparent during the luteal phase of each cycle (Shuttleworth, 1938 [Figure]; Ingleby, 1949; Scott et al., 1950; Milligan, Drife, & Short, 1975; Drife, 1982Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985; Drife, 1989Fowler et al., 1990Graham et al., 1995Jemström & Olsson, 1997Hussain et al., 1999Hussain, Brooks, & Percy, 2008Wang et al., 2019; Rix et al., 2023). This is experienced by women as a sense of fullness, as well as tingling sensations and tenderness (Shuttleworth, 1938 [Figure]; Milligan, Drife, & Short, 1975; Laessle et al., 1990; Jemström & Olsson, 1997). The change in the volume of the breasts has been reported to be approximately 75 to 100 mL on average, with volume falling to as low as 90% of mean volume during the follicular phase or at ovulation and increasing to up to 110% of average volume during the luteal phase (or about 15 to 20% mean total change from smallest to largest volume) (Milligan, Drife, & Short, 1975; Malini et al., 1985; Drife, 1989; Fowler et al., 1990; Hussain et al., 1999; Hussain, Brooks, & Percy, 2008; Rix et al., 2023). However, more recent studies using better measurement methods of breast volume suggest more modest changes, like a decrease in breast volume of 4 to 10% during the follicular phase and an increase in breast volume of 3 to 21% during the luteal phase (Rix et al., 2023). The changes in breast size have also been described as an increase of one-third of a bra cup size (37 mL or 35 g) on average and up to one bra cup size in some (Rix et al., 2023). There is substantial variation between individuals in the changes in breast volume across the menstrual cycle, ranging from no change to up to a 40 to 45% increase in the most extreme cases (Ingleby, 1949; Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985; Fowler et al., 1990; Hussain et al., 1999; Hussain, Brooks, & Percy, 2008; Rix et al., 2023).

The enlargement of the breasts during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle is believed to be due to temporary glandular and stromal tissue growth, luminal dilation of the ducts and alveoli, fluid retention in the glandular and stromal structures, and increased vascularization and blood flow (Scott et al., 1950; Drife, 1989; Fowler et al., 1990; Hussain et al., 1999; Alekseev, 2021; Biswas et al., 2022). However, studies suggest that most of the changes are merely due to water fluctuations and that change in breast glandular volume change is relatively small (Rix et al., 2023). The breast changes during the menstrual cycle have been positively correlated with increased levels of estradiol and progesterone during the luteal phase (Jemström & Olsson, 1997; Clendenen et al., 2013; Rix et al., 2023). In addition, estrogen therapy has been found to reversibly increase breast size (e.g., Hartmann et al., 1998) and estradiol levels are positively associated with breast tenderness (e.g., de Lignières & Mauvais-Jarvis, 1981 [Figures]; Sitruk-Ware et al., 1984). Both estradiol and progesterone can promote water retention via distinct hormonal mechanisms as well as mediate breast glandular growth and changes (Rix et al., 2023). As such, the breast changes during the menstrual cycle are assumed to be due to changing levels of estradiol and progesterone, though it is noteworthy that progesterone has been particularly implicated owing to the breast volume increase occurring during the luteal phase (Lawrence & Lawrence, 2015; Rix et al., 2023). There is a delay in breast volume increases following the peaks of estradiol and progesterone levels during the menstrual cycle and hence the changes are not instantaneous (Rix et al., 2023).

Combined oral contraceptives, which are estrogen–progestogen preparations, as well as menopausal estrogen–progestogen hormone therapy, may produce temporary breast enlargement and feelings of breast fullness analogous to those that occur during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle (Milligan, Drife, & Short, 1975; Dennerstein et al., 1980 [Figure]; Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985; Jemström & Olsson, 1997; Jernström et al., 2005). In one study, breast volume was around 100 mL greater (~30% higher) in women who were currently taking oral contraceptives relative to those who had not taken or had previously taken oral contraceptives (Jemström & Olsson, 1997). In some women, the increase in breast size with oral contraceptives was subjectively reported to be up to a single bra cup size in volume (Jemström & Olsson, 1997). However, in another study by the same group of researchers that had a much larger sample size (n=258 vs. n=65), breast volumes were not significantly different between current hormonal contraceptive users and non-users (Jernström et al., 2005). Additionally, another study found no significant differences in breast volume in women between different estrogen–progestogen oral contraceptives that had 6.25-fold variation in dose of the same progestin (0.4 to 2.5 mg/day norethisterone) as well as non-users (Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985). However, this study was underpowered due to small sample sizes (n=5 to n=15 per group) (Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985).

Engman et al. (2008) conducted an RCT of treatment with mifepristone, a selective progesterone receptor modulator (SPRM) with predominantly antiprogestogenic effects, versus placebo for 3 months in normally cycling premenopausal cisgender women, and evaluated the effects of this progesterone receptor blockade on the breasts. They found that mifepristone significantly reduced Ki-67 index, a measure of cellular proliferation in the breasts, and reduced subjectively rated symptom scores on the Breast Symptom Index (BSI). More specifically, breast soreness, breast swelling, sense of increased breast volume, and the total breast symptoms score were all significantly reduced on the BSI. However, breast volume was not objectively measured in this study. A major limitation of this study is that mifepristone inhibits ovulation and modifies levels of estradiol and other hormones (Spitz et al., 1989; Spitz et al., 1994; Engman et al., 2008, Spitz, 2010). As such, it is unclear whether the effects observed by Engman and colleagues were specifically due to progesterone receptor antagonism in the breasts or due to disruption of the hypothalamic–pituitary–gonadal (HPG) axis, for instance lowered estradiol levels.

An interesting case report of an adult woman with CAIS documented a significant increase in breast volume with combined estrogen–progestogen therapy relative to estrogen monotherapy (Dijkman et al., 2023b). The woman was started on cyclic oral estradiol 2 mg/day and dydrogesterone 10 mg/day and subjectively experienced breast pain and fluctuations in breast volume of about one cup size while on this regimen. Subsequently, she was switched to oral estradiol valerate 3 mg/day monotherapy and the fluctuations in breast volume ceased. However, her overall breast volume was reduced as well, and the woman decided to resume combined estradiol and dydrogesterone therapy. Her clinicians proceeded to measure her breast volume using 3D body scanning. Her left breast was 758 mL and right breast was 673 mL with estrogen monotherapy, and her breasts increased to respective volumes of 875 mL and 784 mL during combined estrogen–progestogen therapy, giving net volume increases of 117 mL (+16%) and 111 mL (+17%). These differences in volume corresponded to an almost one bra cup difference in size. The researchers noted that estradiol and progesterone are associated with cyclical breast changes, and hypothesized that the changes in their patient were due to increased fluid retention in the breasts. Taken together, the case report demonstrates that progestogens can cause rapid and considerable reversible breast enlargement in some women analogous to that during the normal menstrual cycle.

Progesterone and Mammary Development in Animals

Progesterone and Pubertal Mammary Development in Animals

Knockout of the progesterone receptor (PR) in female mice results in complete infertility and severely compromised ovarian and uterine functions (Lydon et al., 1995; Ismail et al., 2003). On the other hand, pubertal mammary development in progesterone-receptor knockout mice is normal and morphologically indistinguishable from that of regular mice (Soyal et al., 2002; Ismail et al., 2003; Fernandez-Valdivia et al., 2005). This is in contrast to the case of estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) knockout mice, in which pubertal mammary development is abolished (Ismail et al., 2003; Fernandez-Valdivia et al., 2005; Wiki; Wiki). However, subsequent studies revealed that mammary ductal development during puberty, while eventually normal, is delayed in female mice that have loss of progesterone production, loss of the progesterone receptor, or progesterone receptor antagonism with mifepristone (Shi, Lydon, & Zhang, 2004). In other words, progesterone stimulates and accelerates ductal development during puberty, and hence appears to have a significant physiological role in early mammary development during puberty. The stimulation of ductal development by progesterone appears to be mediated by induction of the expression of amphiregulin in mammary ducts and terminal end buds (Kariagina et al., 2010; Aupperlee et al., 2013). This growth factor is an agonist of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and is also notably the major growth factor that estrogen induces the expression of to mediate mammary gland development during puberty (Ciarloni, Mallepell, & Brisken, 2007; LaMarca & Rosen, 2007; McBryan et al., 2008). In any case, as mammary ductal development during puberty without progesterone is delayed, but eventually normal, it has been concluded that progesterone is dispensable for pubertal mammary gland development in mice (Soyal et al., 2002; Ismail et al., 2003; Fernandez-Valdivia et al., 2005).

Although progesterone does not seem to be essential in normal pubertal mammary development in mice, studies have interestingly found that it is able to substitute for estrogen in mediating pubertal ductal mammary development in this species. Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg (2005) studied the effects of various combinations of exogenous estradiol, progesterone, and IGF-1 on mammary development in oophorectomized female IGF-1-knockout mice. In terms of stimulation of ductal development to occupy the mammary gland fat pad, the combination of progesterone and IGF-1 produced 92% occupation, estradiol and IGF-1 resulted in 92% occupation, estradiol, progesterone, and IGF-1 achieved 96% occupation, and IGF-1 alone resulted in only 28% occupation (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005; Kleinberg & Ruan, 2008). In terms of gross anatomical appearance, the ductal tree with progesterone and IGF-1 was said to resemble that of a normal fully developed pubertal mammary gland (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005). However, differences in mammary development between the combination of estradiol and IGF-1 and the combination of progesterone and IGF-1 were apparent, with estradiol and IGF-1 having greater effect on terminal end bud formation, ductal decorations, and slight alveolar maturation, and progesterone and IGF-1 having more effect on ductal formation, extension, and branching (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005; Kleinberg & Ruan, 2008). The effects of progesterone on mammary development were reversed by the progesterone receptor antagonist mifepristone (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005). Only the combination of estradiol, progesterone, and IGF-1 produced mammary development that resembled that during mid-pregnancy, with full maturation of secretory alveolar structures (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005; Kleinberg & Ruan, 2008).

Aside from the preceding studies, a number of other studies have also found increased ductal branching of mammary glands during puberty with exogenous progesterone administration in mice (Atwood et al., 2000; Hovey et al., 2001; Satoh et al., 2007; Aupperlee et al., 2013).

A limitation of studies that have used exogenous progesterone to stimulate pubertal ductal mammary development in mice is that the doses of progesterone employed, in conjunction with other hormones like estradiol, have been sufficient to mediate mammary growth to a level typical of pregnancy, with robust maturation of mammary lobuloalveolar structures (e.g., Škarda, Fremrová, & Bezecný, 1989; Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005). Pregnancy is a time when hormone levels are much higher than usual. Hence, the progesterone exposure in these studies may have been supraphysiological relative to normal puberty, and may have produced effects on mammary growth that would not otherwise occur during this time. Accordingly, Škarda, Fremrová, & Bezecný (1989) found that whereas untreated normal female mice naturally grew to a mammary gland area of 26.4 mm2 and normal female mice treated with exogenous estradiol grew to a mammary gland area of 25.3 mm2, normal female mice treated with exogenous estradiol and progesterone grew to a mammary gland area of 43.5 mm2 and with exogenous progesterone alone to a mammary gland area of 64.6 mm2. The untreated control mice did not show alveolar buds, whereas the progesterone-treated groups did have alveolar maturation, indicating supraphysiological and pregnancy-like development compared to non-pregnant mice (Škarda, Fremrová, & Bezecný, 1989). In any case, one study employed low doses of progesterone (0.1 mg/day), one-tenth of that used in most other studies (1 mg/day), and found that progesterone still stimulated significant ductal development in mice at these doses (Aupperlee et al., 2013; Berryhill, Trott, & Hovey, 2016). Hence, progesterone is still able to stimulate some level of ductal growth in mice even at lower levels.

Although progestogens by themselves can apparently stimulate normal pubertal mammary development in lieu of estrogen exposure in mice, it is not clear that they do so similarly in humans. It is well-known that progestogens alone, without concomitant estrogenic activity, do not generally produce breast development in humans. As an example, progestogens, for instance MPA and CPA, have been used as puberty blockers in boys and girls at very high doses, and do not produce breast development in this context, instead causing arrest and regression of breast development via gonadal suppression (Lyon, De Bruyn, & Grant, 1985; Fuqua & Eugster, 2022). Cases of gynecomastia in boys have occurred with CPA, but only in a minority and with this easily attributable to other causes than progestogenic activity, for instance the antiandrogenic activity of CPA and disruption of the HPG axis (Kauli et al., 1984; Laron & Kauli, 2000). Similarly, progestogens like MPA and CPA have been used at very high doses in men to treat prostate conditions and sexual disorders, and likewise do not usually produce gynecomastia under these circumstances. Rates of gynecomastia with CPA used in the treatment of prostate cancer are low and are not noticeably different from the rates with surgical or medical castration (~10%) (Fourcade & McLeod, 2004; Di Lorenzo et al., 2005). This is in major contrast to the high rates of gynecomastia with estrogens and nonsteroidal antiandrogens (up to 70–80%) (Fourcade & McLeod, 2004; Di Lorenzo et al., 2005; Deepinder & Braunstein, 2012). Species differences may be present such that progestogens can produce robust pubertal mammary development in mice but do not do so in humans.

Progesterone and Gestational Mammary Development in Animals

As in humans, pregnancy results in increased levels of estrogen, progesterone, prolactin, and many other hormones in various animal species like rodents and non-human primates (Hasan, 1974; Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980; Pasqualini & Kincl, 1985; Günzel et al., 1987; Seibert & Günzel, 1994). Along with this, there are dramatic changes in the mammary glands (Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980; Richert et al., 2000; Cline & Wood, 2008; McNally & Stein, 2017). This includes extensive lobuloalveolar maturation of the mammary glands in preparation of lactation and nursing (Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980; Richert et al., 2000; Cline & Wood, 2008; McNally & Stein, 2017). Permanently enlarged breasts, mainly due to accumulation of abundant adipose tissue during puberty, is unique to humans, and in animal species, although there is significant growth with puberty (e.g., Geschickter, 1945 [Figure]), the exterior mammae enlarge considerably only with pregnancy (Pawłowski & Żelaźniewicz, 2021). In the case of macaques, there is a roughly 10- to 20-fold increase in the glandular tissue during pregnancy (Cline & Wood, 2008).

Administration of exogenous estradiol and progesterone in specific amounts to virgin adult females of various animal species, including rodents, results in mammary development that is very similar to that which occurs normally during pregnancy (Nelson, 1936; Turner, 1939; Folley, 1940; Folley, 1947; Folley & Malpress, 1948; Folley, 1950; Folley, 1952; Folley, 1956; Lyons, 1958; Lyons, Li, & Johnson, 1958; Cowie & Folley, 1961; Jacbosohn, 1961; Cole & Hopkins, 1962; Lloyd & Leathem, 1964; Meites, 1966; Bässler, 1970; Ceriani, 1974; Vorherr, 1974b; Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980; Tucker, 2000; Kleinberg, 2006; Kleinberg & Ruan, 2008; Kleinberg et al., 2009; Kleinberg & Barcellos-Hoff, 2011). High levels of prolactin also occur in this context, as estrogen and progesterone induce production and secretion of prolactin from the pituitary gland (Ceriani, 1974; Bethea, Kohama, & Pecins-Thompson, 1997; Camilletti et al., 2019). Although estradiol and progesterone alone seem to be adequate for producing full pregnancy-type mammary development in many species, the combination of estradiol, progesterone, and placental lactogen in rhesus monkeys produced considerably less lactational activity than occurs during normal pregnancy in this species (Beck, 1972; Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980). In relation to this, placental lactogen and/or additional hormonal factors may also be necessary for complete pregnancy-like mammary gland maturation in primates (Beck, 1972; Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980).

As with humans, following cessation of lactation and nursing, the mammary glands are well-known to undergo post-lactational involution and to return to a pre-pregnancy-like state in animals, including in rodents and monkeys (Richert et al., 2000; Cline & Wood, 2006; Cline & Wood, 2008; Fridriksdottir, Petersen, & Rnnov-Jessen, 2011; McNally & Stein, 2017).

Breast Changes with Therapeutic Pseudopregnancy

Therapeutic or pharmacological pseudopregnancy is a type of hormone therapy that attempts to replicate the hormonal mileu of pregnancy for certain medical indications in cisgender females by administering exogenous hormones. In practice, this has involved the administration of very high doses of estrogens and progestogens, with most other pregnancy hormones not included. Therapeutic pseudopregnancy was first developed in the 1950s and is largely no longer used in medicine today (Kaiser, 1993).

The effects of therapeutic pseudopregnancy on the breasts are of interest due to the breast changes that occur during pregnancy, for instance lobuloalveolar development and substantial reversible breast enlargement. In the 1980s, Lauritzen and colleagues conducted a study of therapeutic pseudopregnancy for treatment of breast hypoplasia (small/underdeveloped breasts) in cisgender women (Lauritzen, 1980; Lauritzen, 1982; Lauritzen, 1989; Göretzlehner & Lauritzen, 1992). They employed the estrogen estradiol valerate 40 mg/week and the progestogen hydroxyprogesterone caproate (OHPC) 250 to 500 mg/week both by intramuscular injection for 4 to 5 months. The estradiol valerate dosage employed was very high, with other studies by the same authors reporting that this dosage of estradiol valerate resulted in first-trimester pregnancy levels of estradiol in women (~3,000 pg/mL [~11,000 pmol/L]) (Ulrich, Pfeifer, & Lauritzen, 1994; Ulrich et al., 1995). These estradiol levels are roughly 30 times the normal concentrations outside of pregnancy (Aly, 2018b). Similarly, the OHPC doses were very high, with 250 to 500 mg per month being similar in strength to luteal-phase progestogenic exposure (Wiki). Hence, as the same OHPC doses were used weekly in the study, the doses were roughly around 4.5 times luteal-phase exposure and thus were analogously similar to first- or second-trimester progesterone levels in terms of strength (Aly, 2020d). The authors noted that they had initially tried lower hormone doses, similar to those originally used in the 1950s, but did not achieve significant breast growth with these doses, and so increased the dosage. Breast changes were measured in the study with a tape measure (applied horizontally and vertically to the breast area), photographs, breast imaging using mammography and sonography, and, later in the study, plasticine impressions/molds with determination of the filling volume.

Lauritzen and colleagues reported the study findings in four different publications with different follow-up times and growing sample sizes. In the final follow-up, a total of 221 women had been treated. In the second follow-up, when 78 women had been treated, it was noted that 29 of the cases (37%) were less than 18 years old. However, in the final follow-up of 221 women, the age range was listed as 18 to 42 years. The researchers found that breast volume increased by 10 to 30% above baseline in 65% of the women. This was also accompanied by breast tenderness in almost all of the women, though the breast tenderness progressively declined during the treatment period. Other breast-related side effects like pigmentation and stretch marks were rarely observed. Prolactin levels slightly increased to 14 to 28 pg/mL by the end of treatment. Breast imaging showed an increase in the density of breast glandular tissue. The researchers claimed that the increase in breast size in their study was due to increased adipose tissue, water retention, and moderate hypertrophy of the glandular tissue.

Following treatment discontinuation, the increases in breast volume gradually and partially regressed in 40% of the women, to an increase of 10 to 20% above baseline. However, the authors claimed that the regression in breast volume could be reduced with adequate-dose combined estrogen–progestogen birth control pills or with topical estrogen and progestogen therapy applied to the breasts. In addition, they noted that therapeutic pseudopregnancy could be repeated to increase breast volume again. This was performed in a subset of the women, with treatment repeated 1 to 2 times after 6 months. In the second follow-up, which had 78 women, it was noted that 12 women (15%) had undergone multiple treatments. Aside from Lauritzen and colleagues, many other researchers have also reported substantial or full regression in breast size following estrogen and/or progestogen therapy to increase breast size in cisgender women (e.g., Cernea, 1944; Müller, 1953; Anderson, 1962; Bruck & Müller, 1967; Keller, 1984; Kaiser & Leidenberger, 1991; Keller, 1995; Hartmann et al., 1998).

The findings of Lauritzen and colleagues were reported very informally, in the form of non-peer-reviewed book chapters, conference papers, and medical magazines, and were never published in a peer-reviewed journal article. In relation to this, the methodology and results of the study were only briefly and imprecisely described. There are also additional concerns related to study design, such as lack of controls, randomization, and the quality of the breast measurement methods. As a result of the preceding issues, it is difficult to fully interpret the results of the study and to have complete confidence in its findings. In any case, Lauritzen and colleages’ results suggest that treatment with high-dose combined estrogen–progestogen therapy, achieving earlier-pregnancy estrogenic and progestogenic exposure, may be able to produce a significant temporary increase in breast size and a smaller long-term increase. The findings of a permanent increase in breast size conflict with those of other researchers who have reported complete regression in breast changes following treatment discontinuation. Moreover, the results are contradicted by findings in pregnant women, who, as described previously, show complete reversion to pre-pregnancy breast size or to even slightly smaller breasts following cessation of lactation.

It is difficult to evaluate the relative roles of the estrogen and the progestogen in the findings of Lauritzen and colleagues, as there were no comparison groups employing estrogen or progestogen therapy alone in the study. Both estrogens and progestogens have been implicated in causing breast enlargement and plausibly could have contributed to the breast changes. As such, it is unclear to what extent the breast changes were specifically due to progestogenic exposure rather than to estrogenic exposure.

The breast size increases observed by Lauritzen and colleagues were seemingly more modest relative to those that occur normally during pregnancy. They also lacked certain characteristics of pregnancy-related breast changes, like nipple and areolar pigmentation. The reasons for this are not fully clear. The subject populations between these studies were different, for instance in terms of factors like initial breast size and age, which may be contributing reasons. Another possible contributing factor is that only estrogen and progestogen levels increased in the study, whereas levels of other pregnancy hormones, besides the slight increase in prolactin levels, did not increase. These other pregnancy hormones, for instance hPL and IGF-1, may also be involved in breast development during pregnancy. Finally, the treatment duration was only 4 to 5 months, and the estrogen and progestogen exposure was only similar to that during early-to-mid pregnancy, whereas normal pregnancy lasts 9 months and involves continued dramatic increases in estrogen and progesterone levels through to childbirth.

It should be noted that, owing to the highly supraphysiological estrogen and progestogen levels required, which can cause serious health complications like blood clots and cardiovascular problems (Aly, 2020e), as well as the small to negligible lasting increase in breast volume, therapeutic pseudopregnancy is inadvisable for transfeminine people and should not be pursued or employed. Nonetheless, the historical findings of therapeutic pseudopregnancy for increasing breast size in cisgender females are of significant theoretical interest in exploring the roles of estrogens and progestogens in breast growth.

Early Progestogen Exposure and the Possibility of Suboptimal Breast Development

While progestogens are typically sought after by transfeminine people for their potential in improving breast development, there have also been various suggestions in the literature that early or premature exposure to progestogens may result in suboptimal breast development and that progestogens may suppress or reduce estrogen-mediated breast development. These suggestions include progestogens having known antiestrogenic effects in the breasts, animal studies finding stunted mammary development with high doses of progestogens, clinical publications cautioning against premature introduction of progestogens in female puberty induction due to concerns about possibly stunted breast growth, clinical use of progestogens to treat macromastia in cisgender females, poor breast development with estrogen therapy in cisgender girls with a disorder of sexual development that results in high progesterone exposure, and breast development with estrogen and CPA (a very strong progestogen) typically being poor in transfeminine people. As with the question of whether progestogens can enhance breast development, it is currently unknown whether progestogens could worsen breast development. It is also unknown what dosage level and timing of introduction would be required for such an effect. In any case, for informational purposes, the preceding topics will each be discussed in the subsequent sections.

Antiestrogenic Effects of Progestogens in the Breasts

Progestogens are well-known to have potent functional antiestrogenic effects in tissues such as the uterus, vagina, and cervix (Wiki). The antiestrogenic effects of progestogens in the uterus are in fact the reason that they are used in menopausal hormone therapy—to prevent the risks of endometrial hyperplasia and endometrial cancer that unopposed estrogen therapy otherwise produces (Wiki). Progestogens also appear to have antiestrogenic effects in the breasts (Mauvais-Jarvis, Kuttenn, & Gompel, 1986a; Mauvais-Jarvis, Kuttenn, & Gompel, 1986b; Mauvais-Jarvis, Kuttenn, & Gompel, 1987; Mauvais-Jarvis et al., 1987; Kuttenn et al., 1994; Wren & Eden, 1996; Plu-Bureau, Touraine, & Mauvais-Jarvis, 1999; Wiki). This may include by inhibiting estrogen synthesis and enhancing estrogen inactivation in the breasts (Pasqualini, 2007; Pasqualini, 2009) and by reducing expression of the estrogen receptors in the breasts (Mauvais-Jarvis, Kuttenn, & Gompel, 1986b; Malet et al., 1991; Kuttenn et al., 1994; Wren & Eden, 1996; Graham & Clarke, 1997; Plu-Bureau, Touraine, & Mauvais-Jarvis, 1999). Clinical studies have found that direct application of topical progesterone to the breasts suppresses estradiol-mediated breast cell proliferation, although this may be due to the delivery of supraphysiological levels of progesterone in the breasts (Barrat et al., 1990; Chang et al., 1995; Foidart et al., 1996; Spicer, Ursin, & Pike, 1996; Foidart et al., 1998; de Lignières, 2002; Gompel & Plu-Bureau, 2018; Trabert et al., 2020). In accordance with their antiestrogenic effects in the breasts, progestogens are considered to be useful in treating estrogen-dependent benign breast disorders such as breast pain, nodularity, and fibrocystic breast disease (Mauvais-Jarvis, Sitruk-Ware, & Kuttenn, 1981; Winkler et al., 2001; Schindler, 2011; Wiki; Wiki; Wiki). Progestogens have also been reported to antagonize nipple and areolar hyperpigmentation induced by high-dose estrogen therapy (Crowley & Macdonald, 1965). In contrast to the preceding findings however, the addition of a progestogen to an estrogen in menopausal hormone therapy has been shown to significantly increase the risk of breast cancer (Aly, 2020a; Wiki). In any case, the antiestrogenic effects of progestogens in the breasts provide a plausible potential mechanism by which they might limit estrogen-mediated breast development. However, an alternative possible mechanism is that such actions may be related to simultaneous induction of ductal development and lobuloalveolar maturation, the latter of which is notably not normal for puberty (Randolph, 2018).

Stunted Mammary Growth with Progestogens in Animal Studies

Animal studies using progestogens including bioidentical progesterone and chlormadinone acetate (CMA), a progestin closely related to CPA, have found that high doses of these progestogens substantially stunt mammary gland development in rabbits, whereas lower doses do not do so (Lyons & McGinty, 1941; Beyer, Cruz, & Martinez-Manautou, 1970). See here for relevant literature excerpts as well as figures from these studies. Lyons & McGinty (1941) [Figure] found that estrogen alone induced ductal mammary development and estrogen plus progesterone 0.25 to 1 mg/day produced ductal development and slight to “fair” lobuloalveolar development. Conversely, estrogen plus progesterone 4 to 8 mg/day, which were 4- to 8-fold higher doses of progesterone than the most optimal dose, produced stunted mammary development with inhibited ductal development, only slight lobuloalveolar development, and, at the highest dosage, resulted in a much smaller mammary gland in terms of size than in the ≤1 mg/day groups. They concluded that high doses of progesterone are inhibitory and result in relatively poor mammary development. In the paper, doses of progesterone in international units (IU) were reported, but a citing review, Pfeiffer (1943), indicated that 1 IU progesterone is equal to 1 mg progesterone. As such, the milligram doses are listed above instead. Beyer, Cruz, & Martinez-Manautou (1970) [Figure] found that estrogen alone produced good ductal development without lobuloalveolar growth (mean mammary area = 376 mm2) and both estrogen plus CMA 0.5 mg/day and estrogen plus progesterone 2.5 mg/day produced optimal ductal and lobuloalveolar development (mean mammary area = 765 mm2 and mean mammary area = 688 mm2, respectively). Conversely, estrogen plus CMA 2.5 mg/day, a 5-fold higher dose of CMA than the optimal dose, resulted in dramatically reduced ductal development and mammary gland size albeit with significant lobuloalveolar growth (mean mammary area = 284 mm2). The authors concluded that moderate doses of progestogens stimulate mammary gland growth whereas large doses inhibit mammary gland development.

While these animal studies are suggestive that high doses of progestogens may be able to stunt breast development in humans, this is far from a certainty. There are species differences in hormone-mediated mammary development such that findings in one species, such as rabbits, may not translate to another species, like humans, or sometimes even to closely related species, like rats or guinea pigs (Bässler, 1970). As far as the present author is aware, stunted mammary development with high doses of progestogens has not been studied or reported in other animal species, for instance other rodent species or monkeys. It is also unclear that the doses employed in these animal studies are necessarily relevant to progestogen therapy in humans. This is because pregnancy levels of progesterone, which are much higher than luteal-phase progesterone levels, are necessary for substantial mammary lobuloalveolar development, and the doses of progestogens used in these studies were above that magnitude of progestogenic exposure. Hence, the doses may have corresponded to what in humans would be extremely high doses. However, such doses could still be relevant in the case of CPA used as an antiandrogen in humans, as CPA is used in this context at very high doses (see section below). The present author is unaware of any animal studies finding that physiological non-pregnancy levels of progesterone have any stunting or other adverse influence on mammary development, suggesting that only high doses of progestogens may have such effects. Finally, it seems notable that the estrogen and progestogen were initiated simultaneously in these animal studies and yet produced optimal pregnancy-like mammary development at the right doses. This suggests that early or immediate progestogen exposure might not be unfavorable in terms of breast development in humans. However, once again species differences may be present and confirmatory clinical studies are needed in humans.

Clinical Publications Cautioning Against Premature Introduction of Progestogens Due to Possibly Stunted Breast Development

A large number of clinical publications largely in the pediatric endocrinology literature have warned that premature exposure to progestogens during for instance puberty induction may result in suboptimal breast development in cisgender girls and/or transfeminine people (Zacharin, 2000; Bondy et al., 2007; Colvin, Devineni, & Ashraf, 2014; Wierckx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen, 2014; Kaiser & Ho, 2015; Bauman, Novello, & Kreitzer, 2016; Gawlik et al., 2016; Randolph, 2018; Donaldson et al., 2019; Heath & Wynne, 2019a; Heath & Wynne, 2019b; Iwamoto et al., 2019; Crowley & Pitteloud, 2020; Naseem, Lokman, & Fitzgerald, 2021; Federici et al., 2022; Lucien et al., 2022; Rothman & Iwamoto, 2022). The full relevant excerpts from these sources can be found here. In relation to these claims, and in order to mimic normal female puberty, a progestogen is not typically added to estrogen therapy during puberty induction in cisgender girls with delayed puberty until after about 2 to 3 years of treatment, by which point breast growth is generally considered complete. Additionally, progestogens are generally never added as part of puberty induction in transfeminine adolescents. Despite the preceding widespread literature statements and accepted clinical practices in the field of puberty induction however, it is important to note that the claims that premature introduction of progestogens might stunt breast development in this context are currently not based on any actual reliable clinical evidence and hence remain unsubstantiated. It is not even clear that these statements are based on anecdotal clinical experience as opposed to simple conjecture. The absence of data in this area may finally change in the future as more clinical studies of progestogens in puberty induction in cisgender girls are conducted (e.g., Rodari et al., 2023).

Rodari and colleagues studied optimization of puberty induction with estrogen therapy followed by eventual introduction of progestogen therapy in 49 cisgender girls with hypogonadism (e.g., Rodari et al., 2022; Rodari, 2022; Rodari et al., 2023). The researchers employed incrementally titrated low-dose transdermal estradiol to mimic the low and gradually increasing estradiol levels during normal puberty and added a progestogen only once menstrual bleeding began. The total duration of treatment was mean 2.65 ± 1 years, the time of first menstrual bleeding occurrence was 2.3 ± 1 years, and the time of progestogen introduction was median 2.22 years (IQR 1.56–2.87 years). Of the girls, 90% reached Tanner breast stage 4, but only 41% reached Tanner breast stage 5. Reaching the final Tanner breast stage was significantly associated with the number of estradiol dose increases (i.e., gradual estradiol dose titration) and the estradiol dose at progestogen introduction. The researchers interpreted the latter finding as progestogen exposure potentially hampering breast development. They questioned introducing progestogen therapy in the presence of incompletely developed breasts and suggested that instead of adding a progestogen upon onset of menstrual bleeding, clinicians should consider slightly reducing the estradiol dosage to delay progestogen introduction until the breasts complete maturation. While interesting, it must be noted that the findings of Rodari and colleagues are merely correlational, are open to multiple interpretations, and do not causally show that progestogens impair breast maturation.

Progestogens in the Treatment of Breast Hypertrophy

Low progesterone levels have been suggested as a possible contributing factor in the development of pubertal macromastia (breast hypertrophy) (Sun et al., 2018). A number of case reports and series of progestogens in the treatment of pubertal macromastia have been published (Sperling & Gold, 1973; Boyce, Hoffman, & Mathes, 1984; Ryan & Pernoll, 1985; Aritaki et al., 1992; Gliosci & Presutti, 1993; Sridhar & Jaya Sinha, 1995; Baker et al., 2001; Dancey et al., 2008; Bland, Howard, Romrell, 2009; Hoppe et al., 2011; Sun et al., 2018). Progestogens such as dydrogesterone, MPA, and CPA were used for this purpose in an attempt to stop or slow the growth of the breasts under the assumption that they are functionally antiestrogenic in breast tissue. Clinical success in these limited cases was mixed. Due to the self-resolving nature of pubertal macromastia (i.e., breast development stops on its own eventually) and other methodological limitations, such as very small numbers of individuals and lack of untreated control groups, it is difficult to draw any reliable conclusions about effectiveness from these reports.

More recently, a couple of studies, both by the same group of researchers, assessed the impact of different types of hormonal contraception on macromastia in adolescent cisgender females with macromastia (Nuzzi et al., 2021; Nuzzi et al., 2022). They found that use of progestin-only contraceptives were associated with significantly more breast tissue removed upon surgical breast reduction (959.9 g/m2 vs. 735.9 g/m2 [+30%]; p = 0.04) and worse clinical symptoms (e.g., breast pain—odds ratio, 4.94, p = 0.005) relative to non-users of hormonal contraception (Nuzzi et al., 2021). Conversely, use of combined oral contraceptives, which are estrogen–progestogen preparations, were associated with significantly less breast tissue removed with breast reduction (639.5 g/m2 vs. 735.9 g/m2 [−13%]; p = 0.003), though not with any differences in clinical symptoms, relative to those naive to hormonal contraception (Nuzzi et al., 2022). It should be noted that progestin-only contraceptives suppress the HPG axis and result in low estradiol levels, whereas combined oral contraceptives suppress the HPG axis and lower estradiol production but simultaneously supplement estrogen signaling by delivering exogenous estrogen. This difference may somehow be responsible for the opposite influence of estrogen–progestogen therapy versus progestogen-alone therapy on macromastia severity. While the findings of Nuzzi and colleagues are interesting, it is noteworthy that the methodology and findings of their research were criticized on various grounds in a letter to the editor concerning one of the articles (Karp, 2022).

Santen et al. (2024), in a case series of cisgender girls with juvenile gigantomastia, noted that breast growth continues for only a number of years following onset and hence there must be some form of stop signal that is activated and that prevents further breast growth. They speculated that this signal may be related to apoptosis (programmed cell death). Santen and colleagues noted that in adult cisgender women, proliferation of breast cells is increased during the follicular phase of the menstrual cycle, whereas apoptosis in breast cells is increased during the luteal phase of the cycle. They hypothesized that the apoptosis during the luteal phase may block further breast development. Since progesterone is produced during the luteal phase and may mediate said apoptosis, this would substantiate the use of progestogens in the treatment of breast hypertrophy. However, the researchers noted that no data exist on apoptosis in the breasts of girls with juvenile gigantomastia. Moreover, an important point against the authors’ hypothesis is that breast growth gradually ceases in people without luteal phases or progestogenic exposure, for instance CAIS women, transfeminine people, and other examples.

Poor Breast Development in 17α-Hydroxylase/17,20-Lyase Deficiency

Poor breast development with exogenous estrogen therapy has been reported in cisgender girls with 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase deficiency, and prior exposure to high progesterone levels consequent to the condition has been hypothesized to be responsible for this (Turan et al., 2009; Athanasoulia et al., 2013; Deeb et al., 2015; Çamtosun et al., 2017; Fernández-Cancio et al., 2017; Kardelen et al., 2018). However, this is only speculation, and at this time, there is no causal evidence or other substantiation that progesterone specifically is responsible for the observations of poor breast growth.

Non-Comparative Clinical Studies of Breast Development with Estrogen and Cyproterone Acetate in Transfeminine People

The possibility of suboptimal breast development with premature exposure to progestogens is of particular relevance in the case of CPA used as an antiandrogen in transfeminine people. This is because CPA is a potent progestogen in addition to antiandrogen, starts to be taken at the initiation of hormone therapy, and happens to be used in transfeminine people at doses that result in very strong to profound progestogenic exposure (Aly, 2019). In terms of progestogenic strength, CPA at a dosage of 2 mg/day is comparable to the progesterone exposure during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle (Aly, 2019; Wiki). For comparison, CPA has been used in transfeminine people at doses ranging from 10 to 100 mg/day (Aly, 2019). This would mean that CPA provides roughly 6.25 times the progestogenic impact of luteal-phase progesterone exposure at a dosage of 12.5 mg/day, 12.5 times the impact at 25 mg/day, 25 times the impact at 50 mg/day, and 50 times the impact at 100 mg/day. Moreover, this does not consider the fact that progesterone is only produced during the luteal phase, or half of the menstrual cycle, whereas CPA is taken continuously every day of the month. The preceding magnitudes of progestogenic exposure with CPA are on par with and even beyond those during pregnancy. Only recently have lower doses of CPA (e.g., ≤12.5 mg/day) started to be used in transfeminine hormone therapy.

Studies in pubertal and adolescent transfeminine people given GnRH agonists to block puberty plus estrogen therapy have reported good breast development in these individuals as assessed by subjective clinical impression or Tanner staging (de Vries et al., 2010Hannema et al., 2017). However, quality objective measures of breast development were not employed in these studies. Conversely, non-comparative studies using estrogen plus CPA in adult transfeminine people have commonly reported modest breast development, including incomplete breast development only to Tanner stage 2 to 4, small breast cup sizes, and small breast volumes (Kanhai et al., 1999; Sosa et al., 2003; Sosa et al., 2004; Wierckx et al., 2014; Fisher et al., 2016; Tack et al., 2017; de Blok et al., 2018; Reisman, Goldstein, & Safer, 2019; Meyer et al., 2020; de Blok et al., 2021). Additionally, breast sizes smaller than those in cisgender women have been reported (Asscheman & Gooren, 1992Kanhai et al., 1999). In one study, breast development with estrogen plus CPA was also poor in late-adolescent transfeminine people (Tack et al., 2017). However, in this particular study, the estrogen dose used was likely too low and resulted in inadequate estradiol levels, as noted by the authors themselves, and this is a potential confounding factor in their findings (Tack et al., 2017). In any case, breast growth with estrogen plus CPA in transfeminine people would seem to consistently be poor. In contrast to the regimen of estrogen and CPA, breast development with other hormone therapy regimens, for instance estrogen with non-progestogenic antiandrogens like spironolactone, bicalutamide, and GnRH modulators, has not been nearly as well-studied in comparison, and hence comparisons of outcomes between regimens is difficult.

In one of the highest quality studies of estrogen and CPA and breast development in adult transfeminine people, breast volume measured with 3D body scanning (Vectra XT) was approximately mean 100 mL (95% CI ~75–125 mL; range up to ~750 mL), equating to less than an A cup size on average, after 3 years of hormone therapy with estrogen and CPA in 69 transfeminine people (de Blok et al., 2021 [Figure]). In this study, breast changes over time had clearly plateaued, suggesting that breast development was either complete or was nearly so (de Blok et al., 2021 [Figure]). Although most of the transfeminine people in this study had less than an A cup breast size (71%), a minority had cup sizes ranging from an A cup (9%), B cup (16%), C cup (3%), to E cup (1%) (de Blok et al., 2021 [Figure]). For comparison, a study of normative data on breast volumes in cisgender women, using a different 3D body scanning device (Artec Eva 3D), found breast volumes of median ~515 mL and mean ~650 mL (IQR ~310–850 mL; range ~50–3,100 mL) in 378 cisgender women (Coltman, Steele, & McGhee, 2017). As such, adult transfeminine people treated with estrogen and CPA would appear to have substantially smaller breasts than cisgender women. However, it must be emphasized that the preceding data come from separate clinical studies and hence are not directly comparative. It is noteworthy in this regard that breast volumes can vary considerably between different studies even using similar measurement methods (e.g., magnetic resonance imaging) (Sindi et al., 2019 [Table]). Hence, there is a need for studies directly comparing breast volumes in transfeminine people to those in cisgender women using the same measurement method in order to comparatively evaluate breast development.

Regardless of the preceding, transfeminine people could simply have poor breast development in general without this necessarily being related to CPA or progestogenic exposure. Indeed, a more recent study in transfeminine people who underwent pubertal suppression in adolescence, presumably with GnRH agonists and then estrogen therapy, found similarly poor breast development as has been reported in adults (Boogers et al., 2022; c.f. de Blok et al., 2021). This study used breast volume via 3D body scanning to measure breast development and found a mean breast volume of 114 mL (IQR 58–203 mL), equating to less than an A cup size, after 4.2 years of hormone therapy (Boogers et al., 2022). It was notably conducted by the same group of researchers who did the earlier higher-quality study in adult transfeminine people, and hence likely used the same 3D scanning method (de Blok et al., 2021).

No directly comparative studies of breast development with CPA versus other antiandrogens in transfeminine people are currently available. Hence, it’s not fully known whether the findings are specific to CPA or also generalize to other antiandrogens that are not also strongly progestogenic. The RCT of estradiol and spironolactone versus estradiol and CPA in transfeminine people by Ada Cheung and colleagues underway in Australia may provide more insight on this issue, as spironolactone is only a weakly or clinically non-progestogenic antiandrogen (Aly, 2018b; Wiki; update: see below).

Additional Considerations for Progestogen Therapy and Breast Development in Transfeminine People

Anecdotes About Progestogens and Breast Development

Many transfeminine people who have taken progestogens as part of hormone therapy have anedotally reported that the progestogens improved their breast development. At the same time, many other transfeminine people have anecdotally reported no benefit of progestogens to breast development. It must be cautioned in general that anecdotal reports are unreliable and represent a very low form of medical evidence. This is because subjective observations and attributions are often erroneous. Perceptions can be faulty and inaccurate, especially with slowly developing physical changes, and true physical changes can be due to coincidence and unrelated confounding factors rather than due to a person’s causal attributions. A couple notable examples of potential confounding factors with regard to progestogens and breast development include: (1) continued breast development from estrogen acting on its own; and (2) temporary breast enlargement due to local fluid retention, increased blood flow, and reversible lobuloalveolar growth caused by progestogens. Such factors have the potential to mislead, and may contribute significantly to anecdotal reports of enhanced breast development with progestogens in transfeminine people. Clinical studies that are well-designed, controlled, and employ reliable objective measures, with long-term follow-up and eventual discontinuation of the progestogen to control for reversible effects, are needed to properly evaluate the effects of progestogens on breast development.

Therapeutic Limitations of Oral Progesterone

Oral progesterone producles very low progesterone levels and has only weak progestogenic effects even at high doses (Aly, 2018aWiki). These low progesterone levels are likely to be inadequate in terms of desired physiological progestogenic effects, for instance in the breasts. Oral progesterone also uniquely has potent neurosteroid actions via active metabolites like allopregnanolone, which can result in prominent side effects such as alcohol-like central nervous system inhibition as well as mood swings (Aly, 2018b; WikiWiki). These neurosteroid effects are dose-dependent and are more severe at high doses. Non-oral progesterone forms like rectal or injectable progesterone or progestins, which do not have the preceding problems, can be used instead to avoid such concerns (Aly, 2018a; Aly, 2018b).

Tolerability and Safety Considerations for Progestogens

Progestogens have a variety of tolerability issues and safety risks (Aly, 2018b). Examples of such risks variously include adverse mood changes, breast cancer, blood clots, cardiovascular complications, benign brain tumors including prolactinomas and meningiomas, and off-target actions with undesirable effects (e.g., androgenic or glucocorticoid activity), among others (Aly, 2018b). CPA at high doses also uniquely has a significant risk of serious liver toxicity (Aly, 2018b). The risks of progestogens vary depending on the specific progestogen and dosage, but all progestogens, including even bioidentical progesterone, have significant known risks. The risks of progestogens, along with lack of evidence of beneficial effects in terms of feminization, well-being, and health, in transfeminine people, are why there are concerns about and restrictions on their use in transfeminine people (Aly, 2018b). However, cisgender women naturally have progesterone in their bodies, and the absolute risks of progestogens are low (Aly, 2018b). The risks of progestogens can be minimized by use for a limited duration of time (e.g., a few years), by using the lowest dosages expected to be effective in terms of desired effects, and by selection of progestogens with more favorable pharmacological profiles (Aly, 2018a; Aly, 2018b).

Updates

Update 1: Angus et al. (2023–2024)

It was previously reported in this article that an RCT assessing breast development with estradiol plus spironolactone versus estradiol plus CPA in transfeminine people was being conducted by Ada Cheung and colleagues. This study could provide more insight into breast development with progestogens, as CPA is a very potent progestogen whereas spironolactone is not meaningfully progestogenic. Cheung and colleagues’ study, led by Lachlan Angus, has now been published in the form of the following two conference abstracts, with a journal article also currently in the process of being published:

  • Angus, L. M., Leemaqz, S., Zajac, J. D., & Cheung, A. S. (November 2023). A randomised controlled trial of spironolactone versus cyproterone in trans people commencing estradiol. AusPATH 2023 Symposium. [URL] [PDF] [Trans Health Research Blog Post]
  • Angus, L. M., Leemaqz, S. Y., Zajac, J. D., & Cheung, A. S. (November 2023). The effect of cyproterone and spironolactone on breast development in transgender women: a randomised controlled trial. ESA/SRB/ENSA 2023 ASM 26-29 November, Brisbane, 54–55 (abstract no. 132). [URL] [PDF] [Full Abstract Book] [Trans Health Research Blog Post]

The study assessed estradiol plus spironolactone 100 mg/day versus estradiol plus CPA 12.5 mg/day in 55 transfeminine people, with 27 in the spironolactone group and 28 in the CPA group. Hormone therapy duration, at least at this follow-up point in the study, was 6 months. The measures of breast development included breast–chest difference (primary) and estimated breast volume (secondary).

Breast development, measured by breast–chest difference (mean ± SD), was 8.3 ± 2.7 cm with spironolactone and 9.2 ± 3.0 cm with CPA, with the differences between groups not statistically significant (p = 0.27). In addition, breast development, measured by estimated breast volume (mean ± SD), was 158 ± 112 mL with spironolactone and 190 ± 159 mL with CPA, with the differences between groups not statistically significant (p = 0.39). There was variability between individuals in estimated breast volume, with breast volume measurements ranging from 20 to 788 mL. Besides breast growth, the researchers found that CPA also resulted in a greater increase in body fat percentage and gynoid fat compared to spironolactone. Estradiol levels were comparable between antiandrogen groups, whereas total testosterone levels were (mean ± SD) 4.29 ± 5.44 nmol/L (124 ± 157 ng/dL) with spironolactone and 1.48 ± 3.45 nmol/L (43 ± 99 ng/dL) with CPA, a difference that was statistically significant (p = 0.04).

The researchers concluded that there was no difference in breast development with spironolactone versus CPA in their study and that antiandrogen choice should be individualized based on patient and clinician preference as well as consideration of associated side effects. Moreover, they concluded that further research is needed to optimize breast development in transfeminine people.

The measure of breast volume in the study was the BreastIdea Volume Estimator, a freely available web app that employs 2D photography to provide an estimate of breast volume (Mikołajczyk, Kasielska-Trojan, & Antoszewski, 2019; Kasielska-Trojan, Mikołajczyk, & Antoszewski, 2020). This breast volume measure has been validated in both cisgender women and cisgender men (Mikołajczyk, Kasielska-Trojan, & Antoszewski, 2019; Kasielska-Trojan, Mikołajczyk, & Antoszewski, 2020). Additionally, Cheung and Angus, along with other colleagues, notably including some of the original developers of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator, validated the BreastIdea Volume Estimator in cisgender men and transfeminine people in the following 2022 conference abstract study:

  • Angus, L., Mikolajczyk, M., Cheung, A., Zajac, J., Antoszewski, B., & Kasielska-Trojan, A. (2022). Estimation of breast volume in transgender women using 2D photography: validation of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator in men and transgender women. ESA/SRB/APEG/NZSE ASM 2022, November 13-16, Christchurch, Abstracts and Programme, 127–127 (abstract no. 279). [URL] [PDF] [Full Abstract Book]

In studies by the developers of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator, they reported breast volumes measured with the tool in cisgender women. These estimated breast volumes can provide comparison to the breast-volume findings in transfeminine people by Cheung and Angus and colleagues. The developers of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator reported that breast volume (mean ± SD) in cisgender women with normal breasts (n=30) was 283 ± 144 mL and in cisgender women with macromastia or gigantomastia (n=35) was 888 ± 277 mL (Kasielska-Trojan, Zawadzki, & Antoszewski, 2022). In another study, they reported that breast volume (mean ± SD) in cisgender women was 272 ± 150 mL, with a range of 99 to 694 mL (Kasielska-Trojan, Mikołajczyk, & Antoszewski, 2020).

Although the BreastIdea Volume Estimator is an interesting and promising tool for quantifying breast development, it has notable limitations, such as its resolution and accuracy being much less than that with 3D scanners like the Artec Eva and Vectra XT (Mikołajczyk, Kasielska-Trojan, & Antoszewski, 2019). Vectra and Artec 3D scanners have been and are being employed to measure breast development with hormone therapy in other studies in transfeminine people (de Blok et al., 2021; Boogers et al., 2022; Dijkman et al., 2023a; Dijkman et al., 2023b; Lopez et al., 2023). The accuracy limitations of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator may explain why the breast volume findings with it in transfeminine people and cisgender women were different from those seen in other studies that employed more advanced 3D scanning methods. Aside from the breast volume measurement, breast–chest difference also has limitations as a measure of breast development in transfeminine people, for instance failing to identify continued breast growth that can be detected with breast volume measurement (de Blok et al., 2021).

Besides the employed measurement methods for breast development, limitations of Lachlan Angus and colleagues’ RCT of breast development with spironolactone and CPA in transfeminine people include its limited duration of follow-up of only 6 months, the fact that testosterone levels were non-equivalent between the spironolactone and CPA groups, and its limited sample size. The incompletely suppressed testosterone levels with spironolactone are notable as androgens oppose estrogen-mediated breast development and could have reduced breast development in the spironolactone group. The limited sample size of the study was responsible for the numeric difference in breast measurements between antiandrogen groups not being statistically significant. In any case, Angus and colleagues’ findings are suggestive that CPA, which is highly progestogenic, neither enhances nor stunts breast development, at least relative to non-progestogenic spironolactone for up to 6 months of hormone therapy. It seems likely that the RCT will continue to longer follow-up times and durations of hormone therapy in the future.

Update 2: Flamant, Vervalcke, & T’Sjoen (2023) and Yang et al. (2024)

The following two recent studies provide additional information on the topic of breast development with progestogen exposure—specifically with CPA—in transfeminine people:

  • Flamant, T., Vervalcke, J., & T’Sjoen, G. (November 2023). Dose Reduction of Cyproterone Acetate in Trans Women and the Effect on Patient-reported Outcomes: Results from the ENIGI Study. Endocrine Abstracts, 97 [Belgian Endocrine Society 2023], 5–5 (abstract no. 007). [URL] [PDF]
  • Yang, W., Hong, T., Chang, X., Han, M., Gao, H., Pan, B., Zhao, Z., & Liu, Y. (2024). The efficacy of and user satisfaction with different antiandrogens in Chinese transgender women. International Journal of Transgender Health, advance online publication. [DOI:10.1080/26895269.2024.2323514]

In the first study, Flamant, Vervalcke, & T’Sjoen (2023), clinical outcomes in transfeminine people at the University of Ghent, Belgium clinic were compared in 72 people taking CPA at low doses (10–12.5 mg/day) or high doses (25–50 mg/day). Testosterone suppression was equivalent between the two dose groups. Breast development satisfaction, measured with the Body Image Scale, was not significantly different with low-dose CPA versus high-dose CPA following 1 year of hormone therapy (p = 0.078). However, the p-value indicates that there was almost a statistically significant difference between groups, though it was not stated which group was numerically higher in terms of satisfaction. In any case, the researchers stated that breast development satisfaction was “non-inferior” with low-dose CPA compared to high-dose CPA, which seems suggestive that satisfaction may have been higher in the high-dose CPA group. These findings suggest that higher doses of CPA may not stunt breast development relative to doses of CPA that are lower, although still quite high in terms of progestogenic activity.

In the second study, Yang et al. (2024), clinical outcomes in transfeminine people at the Peking University Third Hospital in China with estradiol plus spironolactone (n=43) versus estradiol plus CPA (n=53) were retrospectively compared. Testosterone levels were much higher in the spironolactone group relative to the CPA group (374 ng/dL [13.0 nmol/L] vs. 20 ng/dL [0.7 nmol/L]; p < 0.001) and duration of hormone therapy was shorter in the spironolactone group than in the CPA group (median 12 months vs. 18 months). Breast development satisfaction, measured with a visual analogue scale (VAS), was median 6.0 (IQR 4.0–7.0) with spironolactone and 6.0 (IQR 4.0–7.0) with CPA, and was not statistically different. On the other hand, the CPA group outperformed the spironolactone group in terms of several other VAS-based clinical-outcome measures, including figure feminization, testicular atrophy, decreased penile erections, and in terms of a composite overall satifaction score. These findings suggest, as with the RCT by Lachlan Angus and colleagues, that spironolactone and CPA result in similar breast development in transfeminine people despite differences in testosterone levels and other clinical outcomes.

A major limitation of both Flamant, Vervalcke, & T’Sjoen (2023) and Yang et al. (2024) is the use of subjective self-report measures of breast development as opposed to objective physical measurements.

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\ No newline at end of file +A Comprehensive Review of the Potential of Progestogens for Enhancing Breast Development in Transfeminine People - Transfeminine Science Link

A Comprehensive Review of the Potential of Progestogens for Enhancing Breast Development in Transfeminine People

By Aly | First published February 14, 2020 | Last modified June 28, 2024

Abstract / TL;DR

The major female sex hormones are estrogen and progesterone. Both of these hormones are known to be importantly involved in the development of the breasts at different stages of life. Speculation, use, and anecdotes of progestogens for enhancing breast development in transfeminine people date back to at least the 1960s. A limited number of clinical studies have assessed breast development with progestogens in transfeminine people, but current evidence on progestogens for improving breast development is of very low quality and is inconclusive. Studies of progestogens and breast development in cisgender girls and women are similarly limited. In any case, more studies evaluating progestogens and breast development are currently underway. The possible role of progestogens in enhancing breast development can also be informed by indirect and circumstantial evidence, including notably findings on progesterone and breast changes during normal puberty, the menstrual cycle, and pregnancy in humans and animals. Available evidence overall is not suggestive of an essential role for progesterone in breast growth during puberty, but progesterone does have a clear and key role in lobuloalveolar development of the breasts during pregnancy. However, breast changes in pregnancy revert following cessation of lactation and breastfeeding. Progesterone may additionally contribute to reversible breast enlargement during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. There are some findings to suggest that progestogens may have antiestrogenic effects in the breasts and may have a stunting influence on breast development if introduced too early following initiation of hormone therapy. However, more research is needed to assess this possibility. In any case, if progestogens are used, it may be advisable to delay their introduction until most or all estrogen-mediated breast development is complete. Options for progestogen therapy in transfeminine people include bioidentical progesterone and progestins. However, oral progesterone has major bioavailability problems and does not achieve satisfactory progesterone levels. Progestogens, including progesterone, have been variously linked to significant health risks, which is an important consideration in terms of their use in transfeminine people. Overall, based on current knowledge, progestogens do not seem to be promising for lastingly improving breast development in transfeminine people, but more research and data are still needed for clear conclusions.

Introduction

Breast development in terms of size and shape is often less than desired in transfeminine people, and there is a need for therapeutic approaches that improve breast growth in this population. There are two major types of female hormones, estrogens and progestogens. Estrogens are almost universally employed in transfeminine hormone therapy, while progestogens are used in a subset of transfeminine people. Progestogens that have been commonly employed in transfeminine people include bioidentical progesterone, the progestin (synthetic progestogen) medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA), and the strongly progestogenic antiandrogen cyproterone acetate (CPA). Estrogens are the major mediators of feminization and breast development in females. However, progestogens also have physiological effects on the breasts, and in relation to this, may or may not provide benefits to breast development as well.

The topic of progestogens and breast development has been discussed for many years in the transgender community and is a controversial subject (Coleman et al., 2012). Use of progestogens to improve breast development in transfeminine people goes back at least as far as Harry Benjamin and Christian Hamburger in the 1960s (Benjamin, 1966; Benjamin, 1967; Hamburger & Benjamin, 1969; Wiki). Arguments have been made both for (e.g., Bevan, 2012; Bellwether, 2019Bevan, 2019) and against (e.g., Curtis, 2009) a possible role of progestogens in terms of breast development. It is often claimed that progestogens can enhance breast development or are even required for full breast development in cisgender females and transfeminine people. With respect to the latter, it is sometimes said that progestogens are necessary for people to move from Tanner stage 4 to Tanner stage 5 pubertal breast development and that progestogens help to fill and round out the breasts (e.g., Vorherr, 1974a; Basson & Prior, 1998; Kaiser & Ho, 2015; Prior, 2011; Prior, 2019a; Prior, 2020). It has even been claimed by some that without progestogens, the breasts will remain conical and “pointy” like they are in the earlier Tanner stages. On the other extreme, certain critics have claimed that there are “no biologically significant progesterone receptor sites for biological males” and that progesterone is not produced during normal female puberty until after breast development has been fully completed (Barrett, 2009; Seal, 2017; Coxon & Seal, 2018; Price, McManus, & Barrett, 2019; Richards & Barrett, 2020). In turn, these particular authors have argued against the use of progestogens in transfeminine people in various of their publications (Google Scholar). In general, the use of progestogens in transfeminine people has longstandingly been controversial, with positions both for and against (Sam, 2020).

The purpose of this article is to review the available direct and circumstantial evidence on the topic of progestogens and breast development in order to help inform whether progestogen therapy may be able to enhance breast development in transfeminine people. Aside from an involvement in breast development, progestogens are not otherwise currently thought to be or known to be involved in physical feminization (e.g., Coleman et al., 2012; Gooren, 2016). In relation to this, the present article will limit its discussion to breast development with progestogens, and will not explore feminization in general.

Progestogen Therapy and Breast Development in Humans

Progestogens and Breast Development in Transfeminine People

At present, only a limited number of studies have assessed breast development with progestogen therapy in transfeminine people. These studies have employed either bioidentical progesterone or a progestin like MPA or CPA. The subject of and the available data on progestogens and breast development in transfeminine people has also been partly reviewed in papers including Wierckx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen (2014), Reisman, Goldstein, & Safer (2019), Patel et al. (2020), Patel et al. (2022), Milionis, Ilias, & Koukkou (2022), Coleman et al. (2022), and Berliere et al. (2023).

Orentreich & Durr (1974) was one of the earliest studies on breast development in transfeminine people. They employed combinations of estrogens and progestogens as well as gonadectomy to produce feminization and breast development in a case series of 5 transfeminine people. The employed estrogens were estradiol valerate 30 mg/2 weeks by intramuscular injection and oral conjugated estrogens 1.25–5.0 mg/day and the used progestogens were “60 mg medroxyprogesterone caproate” every 2 weeks by intramuscular injection and oral medroxyprogesterone acetate 0–10 mg/day. Medroxyprogesterone caproate (MPC) has never been used pharmaceutically, so this was likely a typo and the actual progestogen employed was likely either MPA or hydroxyprogesterone caproate (OHPC). The authors reported that estrogen and progestogen therapy produced modest to significant breast development in the transfeminine people that was not strictly dose-related and included clinical photographs of the breasts. They concluded that the breast development was comparable to that of adult cisgender women. Orentreich and colleagues also discussed the topic of lobuloalveolar maturation of the breasts, which was known to be progestogen-dependent, but noted that they had not done histological assessment and that the degree of lobuloalveolar development of the breasts does not necessarily correlate with clinical breast size per findings in cisgender women. The findings of Orentreich and colleagues are limited by methodological problems like lack of objective measurements, lack of estrogen-only controls, and the small sample size of only 5 transfeminine people, and hence the study is of limited value in terms of assessing the involvement of progestogens in breast development.

Meyer et al. (1986) assessed the effects of progestogens added to estrogen therapy on breast development and other clinical parameters in transfeminine people. Of the 60 transfeminine people in the study, 15 (25%) received an oral progestogen, usually MPA at a dosage of 10 mg/day, for “at least for a short time”, and with only 8 (13.3%) receiving progestogen therapy for the full treatment period. In an earlier report of the study, it was noted that in 90% of observation periods the dose was 10 mg/day and for the remainder it was 20 mg/day (Meyer et al., 1981). A dosage of 10 mg/day MPA is roughly comparable to luteal-phase progesterone exposure in terms of progestogenic potency (Wiki). Breast development was measured in the study via breast hemicircumference (Diagram). Progestogen therapy was reported to not modify estrogen-induced changes, including laboratory measurements, hormone levels, and physical parameters like weight and breast growth. The lack of apparent changes in hormone levels is unexpected, as MPA in higher-quality studies has shown clear testosterone suppression (e.g., Jain, Kwan, & Forcier, 2019; Wiki). Meyer and colleagues concluded that adding progestogens to estrogen does not seem to enhance breast development in transfeminine people. However, they noted that the number of individuals who received progestogens was small and further studies were needed.

Prior et al. (1986) and Prior, Vigna, & Watson (1989) studied estrogen, high-dose spironolactone (100–600 mg/day), and MPA (10–20 mg/day cylically or continuously) in transfeminine people who were either pre-hormone therapy or had previously been on higher doses of estrogens (and/or progestogens) without spironolactone prior to the study. The researchers reported that following 12 months of treatment with the study’s hormone therapy regimen, there was increased breast size and increased nipple development. Most individuals reached an A cup size, or approximately 8 to 14 cm in diameter of breast tissue, by the end of the study. Breast development was measured in part with photographic documentation. Although breast development reportedly improved, the researchers themselves noted that it was difficult to determine whether the enhanced breast development could be attributed to spironolactone or to MPA. Moreover, testosterone suppression was inadequate before the study and improved with the study’s hormone therapy regimen, which may have helped to improve breast development regardless of any potential direct progestogenic action of MPA on the breasts. Finally, it is possible that breast development with estrogen may not yet have been complete, and that the improved breast development may have simply been continued progression due to estrogen alone. In other publications, Jerilynn Prior, the lead study author, has claimed that progesterone enhances breast development, and has cited the preceding studies by her in support of this claim (Prior, 2011; Prior, 2019a; Prior, 2019b; Prior, 2020). However, her claim is not well-supported due to the study limitations discussed.

Dittrich et al. (2005) reported that the combination of oral estradiol valerate and a gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist for 2 years in transfeminine people resulted in self-reported breast cup sizes of C cup or greater in 5%, B cup in 30%, A cup in 35%, and less than A cup in 30%. They noted however that 70% of the individuals were unsatisfied with their breast development and wished to undergo breast augmentation surgery. The researchers claimed that the regimen had similar effectiveness in terms of feminization, including increases in breast size, compared to prior reported treatment regimens of ethinylestradiol and CPA. No other details or specifics were given. The claim about similar breast development to regimens containing CPA is relevant as CPA is a very strong progestogen at the doses used historically in transfeminine people (Aly, 2019). It should be cautioned however that this study did not actually employ or study progestogen therapy itself. In addition, self-reported breast cup size is a subjective and low-quality means of measuring breast development and size. As such, the findings of this study are of questionable value in terms of understanding progestogens and breast development.

Estrogen is primarily involved in ductal development of the breasts, whereas progesterone is mainly involved in lobuloalveolar development. Kanhai et al. (2000) compared internal histological breast tissue changes with estrogen and CPA 100 mg/day (i.e. very-high-dose progestogen) therapy in 14 transfeminine people versus nonsteroidal antiandrogen monotherapy with flutamide or bicalutamide in 2 cisgender men with prostate cancer. Both types of treatments block androgens, increase estrogen levels, and are known to induce breast development or gynecomastia at similarly high rates. However, nonsteroidal antiandrogen monotherapy differs from combined estrogen and progestogen therapy in that it lacks any progestogenic effects. In the transfeminine people, full lobuloalveolar formation was apparent in the biopsied breast tissue, whereas in the men with prostate cancer, only “moderate” and incomplete lobuloalveolar maturation was found. It was also noted that lobuloalveolar formation tended to regress upon discontinuation of CPA following gonadectomy in transfeminine people. The researchers concluded that progestogenic exposure is needed for the breasts to fully develop on a histological level and for the breast tissue of transfeminine people to completely mimic the histology of the mature female breast. While the findings of this study are interesting, they only concern tissue characteristics and do not actually provide any information about breast development in terms of physical form or appearance. With regard to this, tissue-level differences may or may not translate to relevant differences in for instance breast size or shape. As such, the study is of limited value in understanding whether progestogens improve breast development in transfeminine people in the ways that are actually valued.

Seal and colleagues conducted a retrospective chart review assessing clinical predictors for surgical breast augmentation in transfeminine people (Seal et al., 2012). In the transfeminine people who underwent breast augmentation, significantly more of them were taking spironolactone than were those who did not undergo breast augmentation. Conversely, the differential rates of use of specific antiandrogens were not significantly discordant between those who did and did not undergo breast augmentation in the case of the other prescribed antiandrogens, including cyproterone acetate, the 5α-reductase inhibitors, and GnRH analogues. However, this study had many methodological limitations, including the use of almost three dozen t-tests with no adjustment for multiple comparisons (and hence risk of false positives and concerns about p-hacking), small sample sizes for individual antiandrogens, use of undergoing breast augmentation as a surrogate for breast development with no actual physical measurement of the breasts or breast sizes, and a correlational design with lack of control for potential confounding variables. As such, the study does not show that different antiandrogens result in differences in breast development, and its findings must be considered with due caution.

Jain, Kwan, & Forcier (2019) studied sublingual estradiol and spironolactone with and without MPA in 92 transfeminine people. MPA was given at a dose of 5 to 10 mg/day sublingually or at a dose of 150 mg once every 3 months by intramuscular injection. Of 39 transfeminine people who received MPA, 26 (67%) self-reported improved breast development. No further details were provided, but measurement of breast development was presumably subjective and anecdotal. Igo & Visram (2021) studied addition of progesterone to hormone therapy in transfeminine people. Progesterone was provided as 100 mg micronized progesterone (probably oral) and was prescribed when progesterone was specifically requested by the patient or when the patient expressed dissatisfaction with feminization and/or breast development. Of 190 individuals, 51 (26.8%) received progesterone therapy. Treatment with progesterone on average began after 12.7 months of estradiol therapy, and the mean total follow-up time was 14.3 months of hormone therapy. Of those who received progesterone, only 6 (11.8%) reported benefit to breast development. No further details were provided, but as with other studies, breast development was likely quantified anecdotally via self-report. As breast development does not appear to have been objectively measured or compared to a control group in either Jain, Kwan, & Forcier (2019) or Igo & Visram (2021), the findings of these studies are limitedly informative.

Nolan and colleagues assessed the short-term effects of low-dose oral micronized progesterone on breast development in transfeminine people on stable hormone therapy in a prospective controlled study (Nolan et al., 2022a; Nolan et al., 2022b). Progesterone was given at a dose of 100 mg/day for 3 months to 23 transfeminine people and findings were compared to those of a control group of 19 transfeminine people. Breast development was measured using self-reported Tanner stage, with participants provided photographs of different Tanner stages to self-select from. At the end of the 3 months, Tanner stage was not significantly different between groups (mean 3.5, 95% CI 3.2–3.7 for progesterone vs. mean 3.6, 95% CI 3.3–3.9 for controls; p = 0.42). A limitation of this study is that oral progesterone has very low bioavailability and 100 mg/day oral progesterone achieves very low progesterone levels that are well below normal luteal-phase progesterone levels (Aly, 2018a; Wiki). As such, progestogenic exposure in this study, and notably also in Igo & Visram (2021) and other studies, is likely to have been inadequate. Besides the issue of progestogenic strength, the very short duration of the study (3 months) and the reliance on self-reported subjective Tanner stages (as opposed to more objective physical breast measurements) are also major limitations. In any case, this study is of higher quality than previous studies, and is notably likely to continue and report further follow-up at later points in the future.

Bahr et al. (2024) conducted a retrospective chart review at their clinic and compared 29 transfeminine people who had received progestogens versus 59 transfeminine people who had not. The form of progestogen used was oral or rectal progesterone in 93% of cases and MPA by intramuscular injection in the remaining 7% of cases. Of those who took progesterone, 25 (93%) used it orally and 2 (7%) used oral progesterone capsules rectally. Progestogen doses were not reported, except that 100 mg progesterone capsules were employed. Most of those in the progestogen-treated group (59%) had started it 1 to 6 months following initiation of standard hormone therapy. The researchers found that progestogen-treated group had significantly better self-reported breast development satisfaction (rated as satisfied, neutral, or unsatisfied) compared to the group that did not receive progestogens at 6 months (satisfied: 53.8% vs. 19.6%; p = 0.004) and 9 months (satisfied: 71.4% vs. 20.8%; p = 0.003) of hormone therapy. Limitations of this study include the lack of objective measurement of breast development, the restrospective nature of the study, and the lack of randomization of treatment, among others.

Aside from the above studies, a variety of other studies have also reported breast development with estrogen and CPA in transfeminine people. These studies have often employed objective physical measurements of breast development (e.g., breast volume, breast–chest difference, breast cup size, breast hemicircumference). However, they have lacked comparison groups, thereby precluding comparison of progestogenic versus non-progestogenic hormone therapy. In addition, CPA is unusual among progestogens in that it is employed at very high doses in transfeminine people (Aly, 2019), which may result in different and potentially stunted outcomes in terms of breast development than more physiological progestogenic exposure. As such, most studies of breast development with estrogen and CPA in transfeminine people have not been discussed in the present section and are instead discussed elsewhere in this article (see the section below). In any case, to briefly summarize the findings, breast development in transfeminine people with estrogen and CPA has generally been poor in these studies. The outcomes have included incomplete maturation in terms of Tanner staging (stage 2–4), small cup sizes, small breast volumes, and breasts much smaller in size than those in cisgender women.

The findings from the preceding studies in transfeminine people are of very low-quality due to methodological limitations, including lack of control groups, lack of randomization, reliance on poor measures of breast development (e.g., subjective and self-report) rather than objective physical measurements (Wiki), short treatment durations, and small sample sizes, among others. This may explain the conflicting results of the studies. More research is still needed to assess the influence of progestogens on breast development in transfeminine people. There is specifically a need for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of feminizing hormone therapy with versus without progestogen therapy that employ objective measures of breast development, have adequate sample sizes, and have sufficient follow-up durations. Additional variables like progestogen type, route, dose, and timing of introduction would also be of value to explore. A 2014 review on hormone therapy in transfeminine people summarizes the state of research on progestogens and breast development in transfeminine people, with their conclusions still holding true today (Wierckx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen, 2014):

Our knowledge concerning the natural history and effects of different cross-sex hormone therapies on breast development in trans women is extremely sparse and based on low quality of evidence. Current evidence does not provide evidence that progestogens enhance breast development in trans women. Neither do they prove the absence of such an effect. This prevents us from drawing any firm conclusion at this moment and demonstrates the need for further research to clarify these important clinical questions.

Accordingly, reviews and guidelines have concluded that there is currently no reliable evidence that progestogens included in hormone therapy are of benefit or are not of benefit for breast development in transfeminine people (Wierckx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen, 2014; Reisman, Goldstein, & Safer, 2019; Patel et al., 2022; Milionis, Ilias, & Koukkou, 2022; Coleman et al., 2022; Berliere et al., 2023).

Future Studies Currently Underway

Several studies of progesterone and other progestogens in transfeminine people are currently underway. These studies include (1) an RCT of oral progesterone added to hormone therapy by Sandeep Dhindsa and colleagues in St. Louis, Missouri in the United States (ClinicalTrials.gov; MediFind; ICH GCP); (2) a prospective observational study and/or RCT of addition of oral progesterone to hormone therapy by Ada Cheung and colleagues in Melbourne, Australia (University of Melbourne; University of Melbourne); (3) an RCT of estradiol plus spironolactone versus estradiol plus CPA also by Ada Cheung and colleagues (ANZCTR; WHO ICTRP; Trans Health Research [Flyer] [Poster]; University of Melbourne) (update: see below); and (4) a large RCT of oral progesterone at different doses added to hormone therapy by Martin den Heijer and colleagues at the Vrije Universiteit University Medical Center (VUMC) in Amsterdam, the Netherlands (Dijkman et al., 2023a; General Info/Links; Info Sheet Dutch; Info Sheet English Translated). Unfortunately however, all of the studies using progesterone employ oral progesterone, which has major bioavailability and potency problems (Aly, 2018a; Wiki). In any case, it was said that the VUMC researchers may follow their trial up with studies of other progesterone routes (General Info/Links). The preceding studies may provide more insight on the question of whether progestogen therapy is of therapeutic benefit to breast development in transfeminine people.

Progestogens and Breast Development in Cisgender Females

To date, there appear to be no useful studies on breast development with progesterone or other progestogens in cisgender females. There seem to mostly only be a few brief and conflicting anecdotal clinical statements in this area that are scattered throughout the literature. These include the following literature excerpts, which are specifically in the context of progestogens as part of puberty induction in cisgender girls and women with delayed or absent puberty due to hypogonadism:

I […] performed studies on three women lacking mammary development and exhibiting signs of marked hypogonadism. […] Corpus luteum extract, 5 international units daily for a period of thirty days, when given alone produced no detectable change in the breasts. This is in accord with the experimental observations on animals of Turner,2 Corner 3 and others. When, however, patients were given alternate daily injections of 1 international unit of progesterone and from 20,000 to 50,000 international units of estrone or of estradiol benzoate, breast growth was more rapid than that produced by the estrogenic hormones alone. The simultaneous use of the corpus luteum and estrogenic therapy definitely produced a much firmer breast growth, which was distinctly lobular to palpation, whereas the growth produced by the estrogenic hormones alone was smooth and the borders of the glandular tissue were difficult to define. Rapid regression in the size of the breasts followed the omission of the hormone injections, but the regression was less rapid when the combined therapy had been used. [MacBryde (1939)]

There are authorities who consider that breast growth is better if a progestogen is combined with oestrogen for the latter part of the cycle of treatment (Capraro, 1971). Shearman (1971) employs sequential therapy in his cases. Huffman (1971) however, does not believe that there is any improvement with the addition of progestogens. [Dewhurst (1971a)]

The effects of progesterone on the human breast remain obscure. Although widely stated to cause glandular development, the evidence for this is slender (Benson et al 1959). [Shearman (1972a)]

Many people use oestrogens alone, but the addition of a progestin for 6 or 10 days each month gives much better cycle control and appears to cause better breast development. [Shearman (1972b)]

Some authorities consider that breast growth is better if a progestogen is given for the latter part of each course of treatment. [Capraro & Dewhurst (1975)]

It has been suggested that progestins be added during the last week of each cycle of estrogen therapy in order to develop more rounded breasts rather than the conical breasts many of these patients develop, but we have been unable to detect any difference in breast contour with or without progestins. [Davajan & Kletzky (1979)]

I have been satisfied that the addition of a progestogen was necessary to get a good breast response to hormone treatment although the progestogen, as I have said, is required after the first year if the uterus is present. [Dewhurst (1982)]

In addition to the preceding instances, Werner (1935) and Geschickter (1945) assessed the effects of progesterone on the breasts in cisgender women. Werner (1935) attempted to induce lactation in 8 surgically gonadectomized cisgender women with combinations of estrogen, progesterone, and prolactin, all in the form of crude extracts by injection. In two women who were given progesterone, he claimed that a marked increase in the size of the breasts beyond that with estrogen alone was observed. Additionally, he claimed that the breasts were more firm, the glandular tissue “more tortuous and nodular”, and the nipples more prominent. He was not successful in inducing lactation in the women in this study. The doses of hormones used were unclear as they were in the form of extracts, and were likely supraphysiological, potentially pregnancy-like due to the nature of the experiment. Werner’s study was also briefly discussed by Nelson (1936), among other citations. Geschickter (1945) observed lobuloalveolar growth on histological examination with administration of progesterone for 6 weeks to 2 months in one woman but not in another woman. However, the exterior physical changes of the breasts were not assessed or reported by this author and hence his findings are limitedly informative.

Surprisingly, there have been few analogous studies of the effects of progestogens on the breasts in cisgender girls and women following the preceding reports and anecdotes. Although there are very little data on progestogens and breast growth in cisgender females, clinical studies are finally starting to look more closely at the specifics of hormonal medications, including progestogens, in terms of breast development in girls undergoing puberty induction (e.g., Rodari et al., 2023). As such, future studies may provide more insight on the subject of progestogens and breast development in cisgender females.

Progesterone and its Physiological Role in Breast Development in Humans

Progesterone and Breast Development in Puberty

The role of progesterone in breast development and its possible usefulness for helping with breast development in transfeminine hormone therapy can be informed by the normal biological circumstances of puberty in cisgender females. Puberty in cisgender girls usually starts around age 11 (range 8–13 years) and completes around age 15 years (range 12–19 years), taking on average 3 to 4 years (but with a range of about 1.5–6 years in most cases) (Schauffler, 1942; Marshall & Tanner, 1969; Marshall, 1978; Begley, Firth, & Hoult, 1980; Drife, 1986). Progesterone essentially does not appear during puberty until ovulatory menstrual cycles begin. Menarche, the onset of menstruation and hence of menstrual cycling, occurs on average at Tanner breast stage 4 or about 13 years of age, although it occurs at Tanner breast stage 3 or Tanner breast stage 5 in significant subsets of girls (26% for Tanner stage 3, 62% for Tanner stage 4, and 10% for Tanner stage 5) (Marshall & Tanner, 1969; Marshall, 1978; Drife, 1986; Hillard, 2007). Hence, the appearance of progesterone in normal female puberty is a relatively late event (Scott et al., 1950; Marshall, 1978; Begley, Firth, & Hoult, 1980; Drife, 1986), and most breast development appears to be complete by menarche and thus by the time that progesterone is first produced (Huffman, Dewhurst, & Capraro, 1981; Drife, 1982). Moreover, a small but significant subset of girls reaches Tanner breast stage 5 and hence fully developed breasts before menarche (Edmonds, 1989), which suggests that progesterone may not be essential for complete pubertal breast development.

The reproductive axis in pubertal and adolescent cisgender girls is immature (Rosenfield, 2013; Gunn et al., 2018; Carlson & Shaw, 2019; Sun et al., 2019). In the first 1 to 2 years postmenarche, most menstrual cycles are anovulatory (i.e., ovulation does not occur) (Döring, 1963 [Table]; Apter, 1980; Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Talbert et al., 1985; Venturoli et al., 1987; Rosenfield, 2013; Gunn et al., 2018; Carlson & Shaw, 2019). Without ovulation, the corpus luteum doesn’t form from a ruptured ovarian follicle and progesterone production doesn’t commence. Only about half of menstrual cycles are ovulatory by Tanner breast stage 5 (Talbert et al., 1985). In addition, menstrual cycles are unusually long for some time after menarche (e.g., 50 days vs. 28 days for adult cycles) and thus there are fewer menstrual cycles per reproductive year (Rosenfield, 2013; Gunn et al., 2018; Carlson & Shaw, 2019). Luteal-phase progesterone levels are also lower in postmenarche adolescents than in adulthood even when ovulation does occur (McArthur, 1966 [Figure]; Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Apter et al., 1987; Venturoli et al., 1987; Venturoli et al., 1989; Sun et al., 2019). Consequently, progesterone exposure is sporadic and relatively limited even during late female puberty. Moreover, this is the case not only by the time of Tanner stage 5, but for many years after it as well. It takes more than 6 years after menarche for menstrual cycling to become fully mature and consistently ovulatory (Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Venturoli et al., 1987; Carlson & Shaw, 2019). Over this period of time, the rate of ovulatory cycles increases progressively until it reaches approximately 100% (Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Venturoli et al., 1987; Carlson & Shaw, 2019). Only then is full adult-level exposure to progesterone finally achieved (Lemarchand-Béraud et al., 1982; Venturoli et al., 1987).

Only a handful of studies and sources have reported progesterone levels during puberty across Tanner stages or by age in cisgender girls (e.g., Sizonenko, 1978 [Graph]; Kühnel, 2000; Lee, 2001 [Table]; Aly, 2020a). They corroborate the above findings with regard to limited progesterone exposure during puberty. The “A Girl’s First Period Study” is an ambitious research project announced in 2022 that aims to better characterize reproductive hormone levels in pubertal and adolescent girls and may shed more light on the physiological role of progesterone during puberty (Lucien et al., 2022). The researchers have specifically highlighted the possible role of progesterone in breast development as part of their interests:

Does exposure to low levels of [progesterone (P4)], as occurs before menarche, during anovulatory cycles with some degree of follicle luteinization, and during early, immature ovulatory cycles play an important role in normal breast development during puberty? This question has important clinical implications as hormone replacement during puberty does not typically include low-dose P4; rather, it is conducted using a staggered approach of estrogen-only therapy followed by the addition of full adult doses of exogenous P4 only after 2 years or when breakthrough bleeding occurs.27 This is done to avoid development of tubular breasts, although there are limited data linking early P4 exposure to suboptimal breast development.28

Taken together, production of progesterone is a late event in normal female puberty, and even once it does begin, exposure to progesterone is low and sporadic until well after puberty has completed. Moreover, a subset of girls complete breast development before progesterone production starts. These facts call into some question the role of progesterone in breast development in female puberty, as most breast development appears to be complete prior to the appearance of progesterone. However, more research is still needed on the role of progesterone in breast development during normal puberty.

On the basis of normal female puberty, it seems it may be advisable that if progestogens are introduced in an attempt to enhance breast development in transfeminine people, their introduction be delayed until after 2 or 3 years of hormone therapy, so as to mimic the normal progestogenic exposure of puberty.

Progesterone and Breast Development in Pregnancy

During pregnancy, under the influence of ovarian hyperstimulation and placental formation, there are profound changes in hormonal profiles, including of hormones like estrogen, progesterone, and prolactin, among many others (Table 1). Comparing hormone levels during the menstrual cycle to those during the third trimester of pregnancy, estradiol levels increase on the order of 100-fold, progesterone levels increase on the order of 10- to 20-fold, and prolactin levels increase by around 10-fold (Table 1). Levels of numerous other hormones also change considerably during pregnancy, for instance other estrogens besides estradiol, androgens, gonadotropins (e.g., human choronic gonadotropin or hCG), human placental lactogen (hPL), relaxin, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), cortisol, aldosterone, growth hormone (GH), and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), among others (Goodman, 2009 [Figure]; Mesiano, 2019). These hormones are variously produced by the ovaries, the placenta, and the pituitary gland, among other glands. In response to the myriad hormonal changes during pregnancy, there are dramatic changes to the breasts, which prepare the mother for postpartum lactation and breastfeeding.

Table 1: Changes in hormone levels (estradiol, progesterone, and prolactin) during normal pregnancy:

HormoneNon-PregnantFirst TrimesterSecond TrimesterThird Trimester
Estradiol100 (~5–750) pg/mL1,000–5,000 pg/mL5,000–15,000 pg/mL10,000–40,000 pg/mL
Progesterone8.9 (1.0–24) ng/mLa22 (5–75 ng/mL)35 (15–85) ng/mL102 (25–280) ng/mL
Prolactin13.0 (4.6–37) ng/mL16 (3.2–43 ng/mL)49 (13–166) ng/mL113 (13–318) ng/mL

Note: Values are median (range) or range. Footnotes: a Specifically during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. Sources: estradiol (Aly, 2018b; Wiki; Wiki); progesterone (Kühnel, 2000; Aly, 2020a; Wiki; Wiki); and prolactin (Kühnel, 2000; Wiki).

Prior to pregnancy, there is significant although fairly minimal lobuloalveolar development of the breasts with each menstrual-cycle luteal phase (Scott et al., 1950; Drife, 1984; Drife, 1989; Drife, 1990; Pocock, Richards, & Richards, 2013; Johnson & Cutler, 2016; Alekseev, 2021). During pregnancy however, the breasts undergo much more considerable lobuloalveolar development and achieve full maturity. This allows for milk production and lactation following childbirth. During pregnancy, the breasts progressively and considerably increase in size (Hytten, 1954a; Hytten, 1954b; Baird, Hytten, & Thomson,1958; Hytten & Thomson, 1965; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hytten & Leitch, 1971b; Hytten, 1976; Thoresen & Wesche, 1988; Cox et al., 1994; Whiteley, 1994; Cox et al., 1999; Cregan & Hartmann, 1999; Kent et al., 1999; Galbarczyk, 2011; Abduljalil et al., 2012; Bayer et al., 2014; Lawrence & Lawrence, 2015; Żelaźniewicz & Pawłowski, 2015; Dallman et al., 2017; Drąsutis, 2017; Żelaźniewicz & Pawłowski, 2019). Quantitative clinical studies have found the breasts to increase on average by about 100 to 300 mL (range -20 to 880 mL) in volume, or by about 200 to 400 g in mass, going from early pregnancy to late pregnancy or early postpartum (Hytten & Thomson, 1965; Hytten & Thomson, 1968; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hytten & Leitch, 1971b; Hytten, 1976; Thoresen & Wesche, 1988; Whiteley, 1994; Hartmann et al., 1996; Cox et al., 1999; Cregan & Hartmann, 1999; Kent et al., 1999; Wright, 2015; Bayer et al., 2014; Żelaźniewicz & Pawłowski, 2015; Drąsutis, 2017; Żelaźniewicz & Pawłowski, 2019). The breasts can reportedly increase as much two to three times in size in some women (Greydanus et al., 2010). There is marked variation between individuals in the breast size increases during pregnancy (Hytten & Thomson, 1965; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013; Bayer et al., 2014). Increases in breast size are inversely associated with age, with considerably greater increases in younger women than in older women (e.g., +234–258 mL in <20 years vs. +79–131 mL in >30 years) (Hytten & Baird, 1958; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a [Excerpt]; Hytten, 1976). In addition to overall breast size, the nipples and areolae increase in size during pregnancy (Hytten & Baird, 1958; Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Rohn, 1989; Cox et al., 1999; Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013; Thanaboonyawat et al., 2013; Park et al., 2014). They also become more darkly pigmented, reaching a dark brown or even black color (Dickson & Hewer, 1950; Thody & Smith, 1977; Wade, Wade, & Jones, 1978; Wong & Ellis, 1984; Elling & Powell, 1997; Muzaffar, Hussain, & Haroon, 1998; Muallem & Rubeiz, 2006; Nussbaum & Benedetto, 2006; Olanrewaju et al., 2017). The breasts become capable of lactation by 3 to 4 months of pregnancy (Walker, Baker, & Lamb, 2013; Pipkin, 2019; Pocock, Richards, & Richards, 2013; Wright, 2015; Lawrence & Lawrence, 2015). However, maturation of the breasts for lactation does not appear to be complete until at least about 6.5 months of pregnancy (Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013). Photographic timelines of women throughout pregnancy provide a visual impression of the breast changes that occur during this time (caution—NSFW: Reddit; More).

There are large and dramatic changes in levels of numerous hormones during pregnancy, and the exact hormones responsible for the breast changes during pregnancy are not known (Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hytten, 1976). However, it is considered likely, on the basis of animal studies, that a variety of hormones, including estrogen, progesterone, prolactin, placental lactogen, glucocorticoids, and growth hormone, are all importantly involved in different aspects of the maturation (Hytten & Leitch, 1971a; Hytten, 1976; Cox et al., 1999). Moreover, in a quantitative clinical study of breast changes during pregnancy, increases in breast volume and areola size were positively correlated with levels of hPL, while increases in nipple size were positively correlated with levels of prolactin (Cox et al., 1999). Progesterone and prolactin have specifically been implicated in the lobuloalveolar development of the breasts during pregnancy (Bässler, 1970; Lee & Ormandy, 2012; Obr & Edwards, 2012). Both hormones appear to be independently essential in normal lobuloalveolar growth per animal studies (Obr & Edwards, 2012; McNally & Stein, 2017; Hannan et al., 2023). Prolactin likewise appears to be essential in humans, based on case reports of lactation failure in women with isolated prolactin deficiency (Buhimschi, 2004). Conversely, hPL may not be essential for lactation based on case reports of normal lactation in women with very low levels of hPL during pregnancy (Gaede, Trolle, & Pedersen, 1978; Hannan et al., 2023).

Following childbirth and lactation, the breasts undergo a process known as post-lactational involution and return to a pre-pregnancy-like state (Dickson & Hewer, 1950; Ingleby, Moore, & Gershon-Cohen, 1957; Harley, 1969; Gershon-Cohen, 1970; Petrakis, 1978; Huffman, Dewhurst, & Capraro, 1981; Drife, 1986; Caro, 1987; Tanos & Brisken, 2008; Radisky & Hartmann, 2009; Fridriksdottir, Petersen, & Rønnov-Jessen, 2011; Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013; Sun et al., 2018; Alex, Bhandary, & McGuire, 2020). This involves massive cell death and regression of the lobuloalveolar development and other breast changes that occurred during pregnancy (Radisky & Hartmann, 2009; Alex, Bhandary, & McGuire, 2020). With involution, there is, on the basis of quantitative clinical studies, a complete reversion to pre-pregnancy breast size, or even to a slightly smaller breast size (Kent et al., 1999 [Figure]; Jernström et al., 2005; Dorgan et al., 2013; Lim et al., 2018). The same reversion has also been observed in gestational macromastia (breast hypertrophy of pregnancy), with striking and complete or near-complete regressions in breast size reported—although often with concomitant sagging and deformity that necessitates surgical intervention (Moss, 1968; van der Meulen, 1974 [Figure]; Swelstad et al., 2006; Naik et al., 2015). Following involution, it is also impossible to reliably distinguish between nulliparous and parous breasts even with internal histological examination (Drife, 1986). However, the parous breasts are not exactly the same as they were before pregnancy; the breasts remain more complex on a histological level (Dickson & Hewer, 1950; Gershon-Cohen, 1970; Hytten, 1976; Drife, 1986; Drife, 1989; Jeruss, 2006; Fridriksdottir, Petersen, & Rønnov-Jessen, 2011; Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013; Lewin, 2016; Sun et al., 2019), tend to be looser, more flaccid, and more pendulous due to stretching of skin and ligaments (Begley, Firth, & Hoult, 1980; Duncan, 2010; Rauh et al., 2013; Lewin, 2016), and the nipples and areolae remain more maturely developed and pigmented (Dickson & Hewer, 1950; Hytten & Baird, 1958; Hytten, 1976; Nussbaum & Benedetto, 2006; Sanuki, Fukuma, & Uchida, 2009; Thanaboonyawat et al., 2013; Park et al., 2014). In terms of subjective perceptions, some women perceive their breasts to be larger following pregnancy, whereas others perceive them to be smaller (Rauh et al., 2013; Lewin, 2016). Pregnancy can temporarily improve breast size in women with small breasts (Capraro & Dewhurst, 1975; Petrakis, 1978; Huffman, Dewhurst, & Capraro, 1981). However, it has been said that the subsequent regressions in breast size after pregnancy can be “disturbing” (Capraro & Dewhurst, 1975). Following the first pregnancy and post-lactational involution, the breasts undergo the same cycle of expansion and regression with each subsequent pregnancy (Hassiotou & Geddes, 2013).

On the basis of the preceding, in spite of rather extreme hormonal stimulation, the breast changes of pregnancy, although quite dramatic, are essentially temporary and fully reversible, remaining only as long as continuous hormonal exposure is maintained. This hormonal stimulation includes exposure to extremely high levels of progesterone. It would seem, based on pregnancy, that once pubertal breast development is completed, the breasts are rather unamenable to permanent further growth, whether that involves exposure to progestogens or to a variety of other hormones known to act on the breasts.

Breast Composition and Lobuloalveolar Tissue Proportion

The breasts are made up of two main types of tissue: (1) epithelial tissue, the actual functional internal mammary glandular tissue, including ducts and alveoli or lobules; and (2) stromal tissue, a mixture of connective tissue and adipose (fat) tissue. Lobuloalveolar development refers to growth and maturation of the alveoli and lobules, and hence is a form of epithelial or glandular development. Progestogens are involved primarily in lobuloalveolar development of the breasts, which is the type of breast development that is necessary for lactation and breastfeeding and that occurs mainly during pregnancy.

In women who are not pregnant or lactating, studies have found that only about 5 to 20% of the volume of the breasts is composed of epithelial tissue on average, while the remaining 80 to 95% is composed of stromal tissue (Hutson, Cowen, & Bird, 1985; Drife, 1986; Drife, 1989; Bryant et al., 1998; Gertig et al., 1999; Howard & Gusterson, 2000; Cline & Wood, 2006; Lorincz & Sukumar, 2006; Wilson et al., 2006; Xu et al., 2010; Pandya & Moore, 2011; Hagisawa, Shimura, & Arisaka, 2012; Sandhu et al., 2016; Rosenfield, Cooke, & Radovick, 2021; Wiki). More specifically, one major study in reproductive-age women found that the breasts are about 10 to 20% epithelial tissue, 10 to 35% fat tissue, and 60 to 80% connective tissue (Hutson, Cowen, & Bird, 1985; Wilson et al., 2006). Conflictingly however, a couple of studies that employed mammography have reported higher breast glandular proportions ranging from 35 to 48% (Klein et al., 1997; Jamal et al., 2004; Duncan, 2010). Aside from glandular tissue, other studies have found breast fat percentages of mean 26 to 48% (range 2 to 78%) (Lejour, 1994; Lejour, 1997; Vandeweyer & Hertens, 2002). Similarly to the findings of most studies of women’s breasts in general, only a small proportion of the breasts is glandular tissue (e.g., 1–7%) in women who have macromastia (breast hypertrophy, or extremely large breasts) (Bames, 1948; Cruz-Korchin et al., 2001).

During pregnancy and lactation in humans, the breasts undergo dramatic changes, and epithelial tissue comes to make up a much greater proportion of the breasts (Ramsay et al., 2005; Bland, Copeland, & Klimberg, 2018). In fact, sources state that glandular tissue comprises a majority of the breast during pregnancy and lactation, with one study of lactating women finding that the breasts were composed 63% (range 46–83%) of glandular tissue (Ramsay et al., 2005). This is not merely due to lobuloalveolar development and glandular growth, but is also due to a marked reversible reduction in mammary adipose tissue (Wang & Scherer, 2019; Alex, Bhandary, & McGuire, 2020). In any case, under more normal physiological circumstances and progesterone exposure, the contribution of lobuloalveolar tissue to the size of the breasts would appear to be quite small. In relation to this, outside of pregnancy levels of progesterone, the significance of progestogen-mediated breast lobuloalveolar growth in terms of breast size is unclear but seemingly questionable (Orentreich & Durr, 1974; Wierkcx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen, 2014).

Breast Development in Cisgender Women with Complete Androgen Insensitivity Syndrome and Consequent Absence of Progesterone

It has been claimed that progesterone helps to move transfeminine people and cisgender females from Tanner stage 4 to 5 breast development and that it helps to round out the breasts (e.g., Vorherr, 1974a; Prior, 2011; Prior, 2019a; Prior, 2020). It has also sometimes been claimed in the online transgender community that cisgender women with complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS), an experiment of nature of women who lack progesterone, are stuck at Tanner stage 4 breast growth and have “cone-shaped” breasts due to their absence of progesterone. In actuality however, there is no good evidence at this time that progesterone is required for normal pubertal breast development, that progesterone is needed to reach Tanner stage 5, or that it helps to round out the breasts. Such claims are contradicted by extensive available literature and evidence, including notably the literature on CAIS women themselves.

Women with CAIS are individuals who have a 46,XY karyotype (i.e., are genetically “male”), testes, and who would otherwise have physically developed as males, but did not because they have a mutation in the gene encoding the androgen receptor that makes them completely insensitive to the effects of androgens. There are also incomplete forms of the syndrome, like partial androgen insensitivity syndrome (PAIS) and mild androgen insensitivity syndrome (MAIS). CAIS women have a male-typical hormonal profile, generated by their testes, including high male-range levels of testosterone, low female-range estradiol levels, and negligible progesterone levels (Wiki; Table). Instead of developing physically as males however, CAIS women are perfectly phenotypically female, with a normal female body, vagina, and breasts (Wiki; Photo). Their testosterone has been unable to masculinize them, while their estradiol, unopposed by androgens, is able to fully feminize them. The internal reproductive system in CAIS women is essentially that of a highly underdeveloped male, with testes instead of ovaries, no uterus, fallopian tubes, or cervix, and no prostate gland or seminal vesicles. The testes are internally located, either intra-abdominally, inguinally, or labially. They are usually surgically removed by early adulthood, as they otherwise have a high risk of developing testicular cancer because of their location. The vagina in CAIS women is often short and is blind-ending, which is related to their lack of a uterus. In terms of behavior, gender, and sexuality, CAIS women are described as feminine.

CAIS women have breast development that is described throughout the literature as “good”, “excellent”, “normal”, “full”, “complete”, “well-developed”, “overdeveloped”, “generous”, “enhanced”, “typically above-average”, “large”, and even “voluptuous” (Morris, 1953; Simmer, Pion, & Dignam, 1965; Hertz et al., 1966; Valentine, 1969; Adams et al., 1970; Polani, 1970; Weisberg, Malkasian, & Pratt, 1970; Dewhurst, 1971b; Dewhurst, 1972; Perez-Palacios & Jaffe, 1972; Glenn, 1976; Dewhurst & Spence, 1977; Dewhurst, 1981; Rutgers & Scully, 1991; Patterson, McPhaul, & Hughes, 1994; Quigley et al., 1995; McPhaul, 2002; Galani et al., 2008; Oakes et al., 2008; Tiefenbacher & Daxenbichler, 2008; Barbieri, 2019). John McLean Morris, the gynecologist who reviewed and summarized all of the existing scientific literature on CAIS women in 1953 (including 82 cases) and gave their condition the now-abandoned name “testicular feminization”, described their breasts as “unusually large” and “jumbo-sized”, and said that they had “normal female breasts, often with a tendency to be overdeveloped” (Morris, 1953; Quigley et al., 1995). Per another author, “Probably under no other circumstance does breast development in the [‘male’] reach the florid degree seen in testicular feminization” (Wilson, 1968).

Despite claims that CAIS women have generous breast sizes however, in actuality, some CAIS women have large breasts, while some have small breasts. One study found a wide range of breast size measurements of 16×14 cm to 41×31 cm, which equates to an almost 6-fold variation in breast size as quantified by area (Wisniewski et al., 2000). Moreover, the breasts of CAIS women have never been directly compared to those of normal women. Hence, there are no clear data at this time that the breasts of CAIS women are actually larger than average for women. The variation in breast growth in CAIS women parallels the same large variation in breast size between individuals that is seen in cisgender women in general. Here is a collection of photos of CAIS women and their breast development from published case reports and reviews throughout the literature. As can be seen from these photos, breast development in CAIS women is normal and often excellent, although subject to considerable variation between individuals in terms of breast size and shape as in women generally.

If CAIS women truly do have enhanced breast development and breast sizes compared to normal women, it may be that their androgen insensitivity, and hence lack of inhibition of estrogen-mediated breast development by androgens, is responsible for this (Wilson, 1968; Sobrinho, Kase, & Grunt, 1971; Andler & Zachmann, 1979; Zachmann et al., 1986; Patterson, McPhaul, & Hughes, 1994; Barbieri, 2019). Another theoretical possibility is that the high testosterone levels may be aromatized into greater amounts of estradiol locally within the breasts and other tissues in CAIS women and that this may somehow allow for enhanced breast development (Ladjouze & Donaldson, 2019). Interestingly, it has been claimed anecdotally by some researchers that breast development is much better in CAIS women who are allowed to naturally undergo puberty with their own endogenous hormones compared to CAIS women who undergo gonadectomy before puberty and have pubertal maturation induced with exogenous estrogen therapy (Dewhurst, 1972; Glenn, 1976; Dewhurst, 1981; Reindollar & McDonough, 1985; Shearman, 1985; Laufer, Goldstein, & Hendren, 2005). This is to the extent that some CAIS women who have had induced puberty have needed to undergo surgical breast augmentation due to poorly developed breasts (Dewhurst, 1981; Shearman, 1985). In relation to the preceding, it is usually standard clinical practice to delay gonadectomy in CAIS women until puberty has fully completed (Laufer, Goldstein, & Hendren, 2005). However, one clinical study reported good breast development rated as Tanner stage 5 in all cases in CAIS women who experienced either spontaneous or therapeutic puberty (Cheikhelard et al., 2008). It may be important to mimic normal pubertal estrogen exposure with puberty induction in CAIS females by employing low physiological estradiol levels that are slowly and gradually increased over a few years (Dewhurst, 1981; Cheikhelard et al., 2008; Bertelloni et al., 2011).

Baron evaluated a total of 41 people with androgen insensitivity syndrome (AIS) and found that 97% of CAIS women had normal breast development while 63% of individuals with “incomplete AIS” (likely PAIS) had normal breast development (Baron, 1993; Baron, 1994a; Baron, 1994b). In another earlier published study of 50 CAIS females, by Sir Christopher John Dewhurst, 76% were rated as having full breast development, 14% as having moderate breast development, 10% as having “mild” breast development, and 0% as having absent breast development (Dewhurst, 1971b). Hence, based on findings in large samples of CAIS females, most to almost all have normal or full breast development. That a minority of CAIS females have had less breast growth may be due to factors like low and inadequate estradiol levels in some individuals, young age at time of assessment by which breast development has not fully completed, and/or a small subset of women in general having underdeveloped or small breasts.

CAIS women have never been described in the literature as having “cone-shaped”, “pointy”, or otherwise abnormal breasts. The only exception is that they are often said to have nipples and areolas that are described as “juvenile”, “infantile”, “small”, “pale”, and “non-pigmented” (e.g., Photo) (e.g., Morris, 1953; Morris & Mahesh, 1963; Simmer, Pion, & Dignam, 1965; Dewhurst, 1967; Khoo & Mackay, 1972; Perez-Palacios & Jaffe, 1972; Dewhurst & Spence, 1977). This has been said to be the case regardless of breast size or maturation (Khoo & Mackay, 1972). A possible reason for this phenomenon is that estradiol levels in CAIS women are relatively low, only about 35 pg/mL (130 pmol/L) on average (Wiki; Table). This is relevant as estrogens are known to concentration-dependently produce nipple and areolar pigmentation and enlargement (e.g., Davis et al., 1945 [Figure]; Kennedy & Nathanson, 1953). In contrast to estrogens, progestogens have not been implicated in nipple or areolar pigmentation. Hence, it seems that higher estrogen levels may be necessary for full adult-like nipple and areolar maturation.

CAIS women are able to reach Tanner stage 5 breast development and hence full maturation of the breasts similarly to normal women (Quigley, 1988; Quigley et al., 1995; Gordon & Laufer, 2005; Finkenzeller & Loveless, 2007; Cheikhelard et al., 2008; Ramos et al., 2018; Arya et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2021). One gynecologist, Robert Rebar, has claimed in his publications over several decades, including in reviews and book chapters, that CAIS women usually only reach Tanner stage 3 breast development (Kustin & Rebar, 1987; Rebar, 1988; Rebar, 1990; Simpson & Rebar, 1990; Rebar, 1993; Rebar, 1996; Wellons & Rebar, 2013; Wellons, Weeber, & Rebar, 2017). However, this claim conflicts with the statements of other researchers and with studies and case reports of CAIS women. In one book chapter, Rebar said that CAIS females undergo breast development and feminization and that the breasts contain normal ductal and glandular tissue, but stated that “the areolae are pale and poorly developed (Tanner stage 3)” (Rebar, 1993). This suggests that he may have meant Tanner stage 3 in terms of nipple and areolar maturation rather than breast growth as a whole (Rebar, 1993). Aside from CAIS females, even individuals with PAIS often have substantial breast growth and female-like breasts (e.g., Saito et al., 2014; Lee et al., 2015). Additionally, PAIS females treated with estrogen therapy have similarly been reported to reach Tanner breast stage 5 (Guaragna-Filho et al., 2023).

Despite their often large breasts, CAIS women are said to have relatively little breast glandular tissue, as opposed to fat and connective tissue, and to have minimal breast lobuloalveolar development (Morris, 1953; Morris & Mahesh, 1963; Simmer, Pion, & Dignam, 1965; McMillan, 1966; Perez-Palacios & Jaffe, 1972; Dewhurst & Spence, 1977; Shapiro, 1982). This is in accordance with the lack of progesterone in CAIS women, since progesterone is important in mediating lobuloalveolar growth. The retained breast sizes of CAIS women despite reduced glandular and lobuloalveolar structures is consistent with the fact that the breasts are composed mostly of stromal adipose and connective tissue. Hence, as touched on previously in this article, greater glandular or lobuloalveolar formation in the breasts may not necessarily translate to greater breast size, which seems readily apparent in CAIS women.

The normal and excellent breast development of CAIS women is notable because these individuals, owing to their testes and hence absence of significant gonadal progesterone production, have very low and negligible levels of progesterone (Wiki; Table; Barbieri, 2019). CAIS womens’ normal breast development, often large breasts, and ability to reach complete breast maturation, as measured by the Tanner scale, are collectively suggestive that progesterone is not required for normal or complete pubertal breast development (Barbieri, 2019). In any case, it must be noted and cautioned again that the breasts of CAIS women have never been directly compared to those in normal women. In addition, quantitative studies of the breasts of CAIS women are very scarce, and much of our knowledge in this area is based on anecdotal clinical experience and subjective breast evaluation. This is in large part due to the rarity of CAIS women and the difficulty in obtaining decent samples of them for study. Furthermore, CAIS women also have other differences from regular women besides their lack of progesterone, for instance their relatively low circulating estradiol levels, high testosterone levels (which can be aromatized into estradiol within tissues like the breasts), androgen insensitivity, and XY karyotype, among others. Hence, the insights into breast development provided by CAIS women come with a variety of caveats.

Interestingly, in spite of their well-developed breasts, breast cancer has never been reported in CAIS women, and would appear to be very rare in these individuals (Aly, 2020b; Aly, 2020c). This may be related to factors like the lack of progesterone and lobuloalveolar maturation in CAIS women and/or their absence of a second X chromosome (Aly, 2020b; Aly, 2020c). CAIS women suggest that breast cancer is not an inherent eventual consequence of excellent breast development.

Menstrual Cycles and Temporary Cyclic Breast Enlargement

The breasts fluctuate in size across the menstrual cycle, with significant enlargement apparent during the luteal phase of each cycle (Shuttleworth, 1938 [Figure]; Ingleby, 1949; Scott et al., 1950; Milligan, Drife, & Short, 1975; Drife, 1982Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985; Drife, 1989Fowler et al., 1990Graham et al., 1995Jemström & Olsson, 1997Hussain et al., 1999Hussain, Brooks, & Percy, 2008Wang et al., 2019; Rix et al., 2023). This is experienced by women as a sense of fullness, as well as tingling sensations and tenderness (Shuttleworth, 1938 [Figure]; Milligan, Drife, & Short, 1975; Laessle et al., 1990; Jemström & Olsson, 1997). The change in the volume of the breasts has been reported to be approximately 75 to 100 mL on average, with volume falling to as low as 90% of mean volume during the follicular phase or at ovulation and increasing to up to 110% of average volume during the luteal phase (or about 15 to 20% mean total change from smallest to largest volume) (Milligan, Drife, & Short, 1975; Malini et al., 1985; Drife, 1989; Fowler et al., 1990; Hussain et al., 1999; Hussain, Brooks, & Percy, 2008; Rix et al., 2023). However, more recent studies using better measurement methods of breast volume suggest more modest changes, like a decrease in breast volume of 4 to 10% during the follicular phase and an increase in breast volume of 3 to 21% during the luteal phase (Rix et al., 2023). The changes in breast size have also been described as an increase of one-third of a bra cup size (37 mL or 35 g) on average and up to one bra cup size in some (Rix et al., 2023). There is substantial variation between individuals in the changes in breast volume across the menstrual cycle, ranging from no change to up to a 40 to 45% increase in the most extreme cases (Ingleby, 1949; Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985; Fowler et al., 1990; Hussain et al., 1999; Hussain, Brooks, & Percy, 2008; Rix et al., 2023).

The enlargement of the breasts during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle is believed to be due to temporary glandular and stromal tissue growth, luminal dilation of the ducts and alveoli, fluid retention in the glandular and stromal structures, and increased vascularization and blood flow (Scott et al., 1950; Drife, 1989; Fowler et al., 1990; Hussain et al., 1999; Alekseev, 2021; Biswas et al., 2022). However, studies suggest that most of the changes are merely due to water fluctuations and that change in breast glandular volume change is relatively small (Rix et al., 2023). The breast changes during the menstrual cycle have been positively correlated with increased levels of estradiol and progesterone during the luteal phase (Jemström & Olsson, 1997; Clendenen et al., 2013; Rix et al., 2023). In addition, estrogen therapy has been found to reversibly increase breast size (e.g., Hartmann et al., 1998) and estradiol levels are positively associated with breast tenderness (e.g., de Lignières & Mauvais-Jarvis, 1981 [Figures]; Sitruk-Ware et al., 1984). Both estradiol and progesterone can promote water retention via distinct hormonal mechanisms as well as mediate breast glandular growth and changes (Rix et al., 2023). As such, the breast changes during the menstrual cycle are assumed to be due to changing levels of estradiol and progesterone, though it is noteworthy that progesterone has been particularly implicated owing to the breast volume increase occurring during the luteal phase (Lawrence & Lawrence, 2015; Rix et al., 2023). There is a delay in breast volume increases following the peaks of estradiol and progesterone levels during the menstrual cycle and hence the changes are not instantaneous (Rix et al., 2023).

Combined oral contraceptives, which are estrogen–progestogen preparations, as well as menopausal estrogen–progestogen hormone therapy, may produce temporary breast enlargement and feelings of breast fullness analogous to those that occur during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle (Milligan, Drife, & Short, 1975; Dennerstein et al., 1980 [Figure]; Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985; Jemström & Olsson, 1997; Jernström et al., 2005). In one study, breast volume was around 100 mL greater (~30% higher) in women who were currently taking oral contraceptives relative to those who had not taken or had previously taken oral contraceptives (Jemström & Olsson, 1997). In some women, the increase in breast size with oral contraceptives was subjectively reported to be up to a single bra cup size in volume (Jemström & Olsson, 1997). However, in another study by the same group of researchers that had a much larger sample size (n=258 vs. n=65), breast volumes were not significantly different between current hormonal contraceptive users and non-users (Jernström et al., 2005). Additionally, another study found no significant differences in breast volume in women between different estrogen–progestogen oral contraceptives that had 6.25-fold variation in dose of the same progestin (0.4 to 2.5 mg/day norethisterone) as well as non-users (Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985). However, this study was underpowered due to small sample sizes (n=5 to n=15 per group) (Malini, Smith, & Goldzieher, 1985).

Engman et al. (2008) conducted an RCT of treatment with mifepristone, a selective progesterone receptor modulator (SPRM) with predominantly antiprogestogenic effects, versus placebo for 3 months in normally cycling premenopausal cisgender women, and evaluated the effects of this progesterone receptor blockade on the breasts. They found that mifepristone significantly reduced Ki-67 index, a measure of cellular proliferation in the breasts, and reduced subjectively rated symptom scores on the Breast Symptom Index (BSI). More specifically, breast soreness, breast swelling, sense of increased breast volume, and the total breast symptoms score were all significantly reduced on the BSI. However, breast volume was not objectively measured in this study. A major limitation of this study is that mifepristone inhibits ovulation and modifies levels of estradiol and other hormones (Spitz et al., 1989; Spitz et al., 1994; Engman et al., 2008, Spitz, 2010). As such, it is unclear whether the effects observed by Engman and colleagues were specifically due to progesterone receptor antagonism in the breasts or due to disruption of the hypothalamic–pituitary–gonadal (HPG) axis, for instance lowered estradiol levels.

An interesting case report of an adult woman with CAIS documented a significant increase in breast volume with combined estrogen–progestogen therapy relative to estrogen monotherapy (Dijkman et al., 2023b). The woman was started on cyclic oral estradiol 2 mg/day and dydrogesterone 10 mg/day and subjectively experienced breast pain and fluctuations in breast volume of about one cup size while on this regimen. Subsequently, she was switched to oral estradiol valerate 3 mg/day monotherapy and the fluctuations in breast volume ceased. However, her overall breast volume was reduced as well, and the woman decided to resume combined estradiol and dydrogesterone therapy. Her clinicians proceeded to measure her breast volume using 3D body scanning. Her left breast was 758 mL and right breast was 673 mL with estrogen monotherapy, and her breasts increased to respective volumes of 875 mL and 784 mL during combined estrogen–progestogen therapy, giving net volume increases of 117 mL (+16%) and 111 mL (+17%). These differences in volume corresponded to an almost one bra cup difference in size. The researchers noted that estradiol and progesterone are associated with cyclical breast changes, and hypothesized that the changes in their patient were due to increased fluid retention in the breasts. Taken together, the case report demonstrates that progestogens can cause rapid and considerable reversible breast enlargement in some women analogous to that during the normal menstrual cycle.

Progesterone and Mammary Development in Animals

Progesterone and Pubertal Mammary Development in Animals

Knockout of the progesterone receptor (PR) in female mice results in complete infertility and severely compromised ovarian and uterine functions (Lydon et al., 1995; Ismail et al., 2003). On the other hand, pubertal mammary development in progesterone-receptor knockout mice is normal and morphologically indistinguishable from that of regular mice (Soyal et al., 2002; Ismail et al., 2003; Fernandez-Valdivia et al., 2005). This is in contrast to the case of estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) knockout mice, in which pubertal mammary development is abolished (Ismail et al., 2003; Fernandez-Valdivia et al., 2005; Wiki; Wiki). However, subsequent studies revealed that mammary ductal development during puberty, while eventually normal, is delayed in female mice that have loss of progesterone production, loss of the progesterone receptor, or progesterone receptor antagonism with mifepristone (Shi, Lydon, & Zhang, 2004). In other words, progesterone stimulates and accelerates ductal development during puberty, and hence appears to have a significant physiological role in early mammary development during puberty. The stimulation of ductal development by progesterone appears to be mediated by induction of the expression of amphiregulin in mammary ducts and terminal end buds (Kariagina et al., 2010; Aupperlee et al., 2013). This growth factor is an agonist of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and is also notably the major growth factor that estrogen induces the expression of to mediate mammary gland development during puberty (Ciarloni, Mallepell, & Brisken, 2007; LaMarca & Rosen, 2007; McBryan et al., 2008). In any case, as mammary ductal development during puberty without progesterone is delayed, but eventually normal, it has been concluded that progesterone is dispensable for pubertal mammary gland development in mice (Soyal et al., 2002; Ismail et al., 2003; Fernandez-Valdivia et al., 2005).

Although progesterone does not seem to be essential in normal pubertal mammary development in mice, studies have interestingly found that it is able to substitute for estrogen in mediating pubertal ductal mammary development in this species. Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg (2005) studied the effects of various combinations of exogenous estradiol, progesterone, and IGF-1 on mammary development in oophorectomized female IGF-1-knockout mice. In terms of stimulation of ductal development to occupy the mammary gland fat pad, the combination of progesterone and IGF-1 produced 92% occupation, estradiol and IGF-1 resulted in 92% occupation, estradiol, progesterone, and IGF-1 achieved 96% occupation, and IGF-1 alone resulted in only 28% occupation (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005; Kleinberg & Ruan, 2008). In terms of gross anatomical appearance, the ductal tree with progesterone and IGF-1 was said to resemble that of a normal fully developed pubertal mammary gland (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005). However, differences in mammary development between the combination of estradiol and IGF-1 and the combination of progesterone and IGF-1 were apparent, with estradiol and IGF-1 having greater effect on terminal end bud formation, ductal decorations, and slight alveolar maturation, and progesterone and IGF-1 having more effect on ductal formation, extension, and branching (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005; Kleinberg & Ruan, 2008). The effects of progesterone on mammary development were reversed by the progesterone receptor antagonist mifepristone (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005). Only the combination of estradiol, progesterone, and IGF-1 produced mammary development that resembled that during mid-pregnancy, with full maturation of secretory alveolar structures (Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005; Kleinberg & Ruan, 2008).

Aside from the preceding studies, a number of other studies have also found increased ductal branching of mammary glands during puberty with exogenous progesterone administration in mice (Atwood et al., 2000; Hovey et al., 2001; Satoh et al., 2007; Aupperlee et al., 2013).

A limitation of studies that have used exogenous progesterone to stimulate pubertal ductal mammary development in mice is that the doses of progesterone employed, in conjunction with other hormones like estradiol, have been sufficient to mediate mammary growth to a level typical of pregnancy, with robust maturation of mammary lobuloalveolar structures (e.g., Škarda, Fremrová, & Bezecný, 1989; Ruan, Monaco, & Kleinberg, 2005). Pregnancy is a time when hormone levels are much higher than usual. Hence, the progesterone exposure in these studies may have been supraphysiological relative to normal puberty, and may have produced effects on mammary growth that would not otherwise occur during this time. Accordingly, Škarda, Fremrová, & Bezecný (1989) found that whereas untreated normal female mice naturally grew to a mammary gland area of 26.4 mm2 and normal female mice treated with exogenous estradiol grew to a mammary gland area of 25.3 mm2, normal female mice treated with exogenous estradiol and progesterone grew to a mammary gland area of 43.5 mm2 and with exogenous progesterone alone to a mammary gland area of 64.6 mm2. The untreated control mice did not show alveolar buds, whereas the progesterone-treated groups did have alveolar maturation, indicating supraphysiological and pregnancy-like development compared to non-pregnant mice (Škarda, Fremrová, & Bezecný, 1989). In any case, one study employed low doses of progesterone (0.1 mg/day), one-tenth of that used in most other studies (1 mg/day), and found that progesterone still stimulated significant ductal development in mice at these doses (Aupperlee et al., 2013; Berryhill, Trott, & Hovey, 2016). Hence, progesterone is still able to stimulate some level of ductal growth in mice even at lower levels.

Although progestogens by themselves can apparently stimulate normal pubertal mammary development in lieu of estrogen exposure in mice, it is not clear that they do so similarly in humans. It is well-known that progestogens alone, without concomitant estrogenic activity, do not generally produce breast development in humans. As an example, progestogens, for instance MPA and CPA, have been used as puberty blockers in boys and girls at very high doses, and do not produce breast development in this context, instead causing arrest and regression of breast development via gonadal suppression (Lyon, De Bruyn, & Grant, 1985; Fuqua & Eugster, 2022). Cases of gynecomastia in boys have occurred with CPA, but only in a minority and with this easily attributable to other causes than progestogenic activity, for instance the antiandrogenic activity of CPA and disruption of the HPG axis (Kauli et al., 1984; Laron & Kauli, 2000). Similarly, progestogens like MPA and CPA have been used at very high doses in men to treat prostate conditions and sexual disorders, and likewise do not usually produce gynecomastia under these circumstances. Rates of gynecomastia with CPA used in the treatment of prostate cancer are low and are not noticeably different from the rates with surgical or medical castration (~10%) (Fourcade & McLeod, 2004; Di Lorenzo et al., 2005). This is in major contrast to the high rates of gynecomastia with estrogens and nonsteroidal antiandrogens (up to 70–80%) (Fourcade & McLeod, 2004; Di Lorenzo et al., 2005; Deepinder & Braunstein, 2012). Species differences may be present such that progestogens can produce robust pubertal mammary development in mice but do not do so in humans.

Progesterone and Gestational Mammary Development in Animals

As in humans, pregnancy results in increased levels of estrogen, progesterone, prolactin, and many other hormones in various animal species like rodents and non-human primates (Hasan, 1974; Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980; Pasqualini & Kincl, 1985; Günzel et al., 1987; Seibert & Günzel, 1994). Along with this, there are dramatic changes in the mammary glands (Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980; Richert et al., 2000; Cline & Wood, 2008; McNally & Stein, 2017). This includes extensive lobuloalveolar maturation of the mammary glands in preparation of lactation and nursing (Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980; Richert et al., 2000; Cline & Wood, 2008; McNally & Stein, 2017). Permanently enlarged breasts, mainly due to accumulation of abundant adipose tissue during puberty, is unique to humans, and in animal species, although there is significant growth with puberty (e.g., Geschickter, 1945 [Figure]), the exterior mammae enlarge considerably only with pregnancy (Pawłowski & Żelaźniewicz, 2021). In the case of macaques, there is a roughly 10- to 20-fold increase in the glandular tissue during pregnancy (Cline & Wood, 2008).

Administration of exogenous estradiol and progesterone in specific amounts to virgin adult females of various animal species, including rodents, results in mammary development that is very similar to that which occurs normally during pregnancy (Nelson, 1936; Turner, 1939; Folley, 1940; Folley, 1947; Folley & Malpress, 1948; Folley, 1950; Folley, 1952; Folley, 1956; Lyons, 1958; Lyons, Li, & Johnson, 1958; Cowie & Folley, 1961; Jacbosohn, 1961; Cole & Hopkins, 1962; Lloyd & Leathem, 1964; Meites, 1966; Bässler, 1970; Ceriani, 1974; Vorherr, 1974b; Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980; Tucker, 2000; Kleinberg, 2006; Kleinberg & Ruan, 2008; Kleinberg et al., 2009; Kleinberg & Barcellos-Hoff, 2011). High levels of prolactin also occur in this context, as estrogen and progesterone induce production and secretion of prolactin from the pituitary gland (Ceriani, 1974; Bethea, Kohama, & Pecins-Thompson, 1997; Camilletti et al., 2019). Although estradiol and progesterone alone seem to be adequate for producing full pregnancy-type mammary development in many species, the combination of estradiol, progesterone, and placental lactogen in rhesus monkeys produced considerably less lactational activity than occurs during normal pregnancy in this species (Beck, 1972; Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980). In relation to this, placental lactogen and/or additional hormonal factors may also be necessary for complete pregnancy-like mammary gland maturation in primates (Beck, 1972; Cowie, Forsyth, & Hart, 1980).

As with humans, following cessation of lactation and nursing, the mammary glands are well-known to undergo post-lactational involution and to return to a pre-pregnancy-like state in animals, including in rodents and monkeys (Richert et al., 2000; Cline & Wood, 2006; Cline & Wood, 2008; Fridriksdottir, Petersen, & Rnnov-Jessen, 2011; McNally & Stein, 2017).

Breast Changes with Therapeutic Pseudopregnancy

Therapeutic or pharmacological pseudopregnancy is a type of hormone therapy that attempts to replicate the hormonal mileu of pregnancy for certain medical indications in cisgender females by administering exogenous hormones. In practice, this has involved the administration of very high doses of estrogens and progestogens, with most other pregnancy hormones not included. Therapeutic pseudopregnancy was first developed in the 1950s and is largely no longer used in medicine today (Kaiser, 1993).

The effects of therapeutic pseudopregnancy on the breasts are of interest due to the breast changes that occur during pregnancy, for instance lobuloalveolar development and substantial reversible breast enlargement. In the 1980s, Lauritzen and colleagues conducted a study of therapeutic pseudopregnancy for treatment of breast hypoplasia (small/underdeveloped breasts) in cisgender women (Lauritzen, 1980; Lauritzen, 1982; Lauritzen, 1989; Göretzlehner & Lauritzen, 1992). They employed the estrogen estradiol valerate 40 mg/week and the progestogen hydroxyprogesterone caproate (OHPC) 250 to 500 mg/week both by intramuscular injection for 4 to 5 months. The estradiol valerate dosage employed was very high, with other studies by the same authors reporting that this dosage of estradiol valerate resulted in first-trimester pregnancy levels of estradiol in women (~3,000 pg/mL [~11,000 pmol/L]) (Ulrich, Pfeifer, & Lauritzen, 1994; Ulrich et al., 1995). These estradiol levels are roughly 30 times the normal concentrations outside of pregnancy (Aly, 2018b). Similarly, the OHPC doses were very high, with 250 to 500 mg per month being similar in strength to luteal-phase progestogenic exposure (Wiki). Hence, as the same OHPC doses were used weekly in the study, the doses were roughly around 4.5 times luteal-phase exposure and thus were analogously similar to first- or second-trimester progesterone levels in terms of strength (Aly, 2020d). The authors noted that they had initially tried lower hormone doses, similar to those originally used in the 1950s, but did not achieve significant breast growth with these doses, and so increased the dosage. Breast changes were measured in the study with a tape measure (applied horizontally and vertically to the breast area), photographs, breast imaging using mammography and sonography, and, later in the study, plasticine impressions/molds with determination of the filling volume.

Lauritzen and colleagues reported the study findings in four different publications with different follow-up times and growing sample sizes. In the final follow-up, a total of 221 women had been treated. In the second follow-up, when 78 women had been treated, it was noted that 29 of the cases (37%) were less than 18 years old. However, in the final follow-up of 221 women, the age range was listed as 18 to 42 years. The researchers found that breast volume increased by 10 to 30% above baseline in 65% of the women. This was also accompanied by breast tenderness in almost all of the women, though the breast tenderness progressively declined during the treatment period. Other breast-related side effects like pigmentation and stretch marks were rarely observed. Prolactin levels slightly increased to 14 to 28 pg/mL by the end of treatment. Breast imaging showed an increase in the density of breast glandular tissue. The researchers claimed that the increase in breast size in their study was due to increased adipose tissue, water retention, and moderate hypertrophy of the glandular tissue.

Following treatment discontinuation, the increases in breast volume gradually and partially regressed in 40% of the women, to an increase of 10 to 20% above baseline. However, the authors claimed that the regression in breast volume could be reduced with adequate-dose combined estrogen–progestogen birth control pills or with topical estrogen and progestogen therapy applied to the breasts. In addition, they noted that therapeutic pseudopregnancy could be repeated to increase breast volume again. This was performed in a subset of the women, with treatment repeated 1 to 2 times after 6 months. In the second follow-up, which had 78 women, it was noted that 12 women (15%) had undergone multiple treatments. Aside from Lauritzen and colleagues, many other researchers have also reported substantial or full regression in breast size following estrogen and/or progestogen therapy to increase breast size in cisgender women (e.g., Cernea, 1944; Müller, 1953; Anderson, 1962; Bruck & Müller, 1967; Keller, 1984; Kaiser & Leidenberger, 1991; Keller, 1995; Hartmann et al., 1998).

The findings of Lauritzen and colleagues were reported very informally, in the form of non-peer-reviewed book chapters, conference papers, and medical magazines, and were never published in a peer-reviewed journal article. In relation to this, the methodology and results of the study were only briefly and imprecisely described. There are also additional concerns related to study design, such as lack of controls, randomization, and the quality of the breast measurement methods. As a result of the preceding issues, it is difficult to fully interpret the results of the study and to have complete confidence in its findings. In any case, Lauritzen and colleages’ results suggest that treatment with high-dose combined estrogen–progestogen therapy, achieving earlier-pregnancy estrogenic and progestogenic exposure, may be able to produce a significant temporary increase in breast size and a smaller long-term increase. The findings of a permanent increase in breast size conflict with those of other researchers who have reported complete regression in breast changes following treatment discontinuation. Moreover, the results are contradicted by findings in pregnant women, who, as described previously, show complete reversion to pre-pregnancy breast size or to even slightly smaller breasts following cessation of lactation.

It is difficult to evaluate the relative roles of the estrogen and the progestogen in the findings of Lauritzen and colleagues, as there were no comparison groups employing estrogen or progestogen therapy alone in the study. Both estrogens and progestogens have been implicated in causing breast enlargement and plausibly could have contributed to the breast changes. As such, it is unclear to what extent the breast changes were specifically due to progestogenic exposure rather than to estrogenic exposure.

The breast size increases observed by Lauritzen and colleagues were seemingly more modest relative to those that occur normally during pregnancy. They also lacked certain characteristics of pregnancy-related breast changes, like nipple and areolar pigmentation. The reasons for this are not fully clear. The subject populations between these studies were different, for instance in terms of factors like initial breast size and age, which may be contributing reasons. Another possible contributing factor is that only estrogen and progestogen levels increased in the study, whereas levels of other pregnancy hormones, besides the slight increase in prolactin levels, did not increase. These other pregnancy hormones, for instance hPL and IGF-1, may also be involved in breast development during pregnancy. Finally, the treatment duration was only 4 to 5 months, and the estrogen and progestogen exposure was only similar to that during early-to-mid pregnancy, whereas normal pregnancy lasts 9 months and involves continued dramatic increases in estrogen and progesterone levels through to childbirth.

It should be noted that, owing to the highly supraphysiological estrogen and progestogen levels required, which can cause serious health complications like blood clots and cardiovascular problems (Aly, 2020e), as well as the small to negligible lasting increase in breast volume, therapeutic pseudopregnancy is inadvisable for transfeminine people and should not be pursued or employed. Nonetheless, the historical findings of therapeutic pseudopregnancy for increasing breast size in cisgender females are of significant theoretical interest in exploring the roles of estrogens and progestogens in breast growth.

Early Progestogen Exposure and the Possibility of Suboptimal Breast Development

While progestogens are typically sought after by transfeminine people for their potential in improving breast development, there have also been various suggestions in the literature that early or premature exposure to progestogens may result in suboptimal breast development and that progestogens may suppress or reduce estrogen-mediated breast development. These suggestions include progestogens having known antiestrogenic effects in the breasts, animal studies finding stunted mammary development with high doses of progestogens, clinical publications cautioning against premature introduction of progestogens in female puberty induction due to concerns about possibly stunted breast growth, clinical use of progestogens to treat macromastia in cisgender females, poor breast development with estrogen therapy in cisgender girls with a disorder of sexual development that results in high progesterone exposure, and breast development with estrogen and CPA (a very strong progestogen) typically being poor in transfeminine people. As with the question of whether progestogens can enhance breast development, it is currently unknown whether progestogens could worsen breast development. It is also unknown what dosage level and timing of introduction would be required for such an effect. In any case, for informational purposes, the preceding topics will each be discussed in the subsequent sections.

Antiestrogenic Effects of Progestogens in the Breasts

Progestogens are well-known to have potent functional antiestrogenic effects in tissues such as the uterus, vagina, and cervix (Wiki). The antiestrogenic effects of progestogens in the uterus are in fact the reason that they are used in menopausal hormone therapy—to prevent the risks of endometrial hyperplasia and endometrial cancer that unopposed estrogen therapy otherwise produces (Wiki). Progestogens also appear to have antiestrogenic effects in the breasts (Mauvais-Jarvis, Kuttenn, & Gompel, 1986a; Mauvais-Jarvis, Kuttenn, & Gompel, 1986b; Mauvais-Jarvis, Kuttenn, & Gompel, 1987; Mauvais-Jarvis et al., 1987; Kuttenn et al., 1994; Wren & Eden, 1996; Plu-Bureau, Touraine, & Mauvais-Jarvis, 1999; Wiki). This may include by inhibiting estrogen synthesis and enhancing estrogen inactivation in the breasts (Pasqualini, 2007; Pasqualini, 2009) and by reducing expression of the estrogen receptors in the breasts (Mauvais-Jarvis, Kuttenn, & Gompel, 1986b; Malet et al., 1991; Kuttenn et al., 1994; Wren & Eden, 1996; Graham & Clarke, 1997; Plu-Bureau, Touraine, & Mauvais-Jarvis, 1999). Clinical studies have found that direct application of topical progesterone to the breasts suppresses estradiol-mediated breast cell proliferation, although this may be due to the delivery of supraphysiological levels of progesterone in the breasts (Barrat et al., 1990; Chang et al., 1995; Foidart et al., 1996; Spicer, Ursin, & Pike, 1996; Foidart et al., 1998; de Lignières, 2002; Gompel & Plu-Bureau, 2018; Trabert et al., 2020). In accordance with their antiestrogenic effects in the breasts, progestogens are considered to be useful in treating estrogen-dependent benign breast disorders such as breast pain, nodularity, and fibrocystic breast disease (Mauvais-Jarvis, Sitruk-Ware, & Kuttenn, 1981; Winkler et al., 2001; Schindler, 2011; Wiki; Wiki; Wiki). Progestogens have also been reported to antagonize nipple and areolar hyperpigmentation induced by high-dose estrogen therapy (Crowley & Macdonald, 1965). In contrast to the preceding findings however, the addition of a progestogen to an estrogen in menopausal hormone therapy has been shown to significantly increase the risk of breast cancer (Aly, 2020a; Wiki). In any case, the antiestrogenic effects of progestogens in the breasts provide a plausible potential mechanism by which they might limit estrogen-mediated breast development. However, an alternative possible mechanism is that such actions may be related to simultaneous induction of ductal development and lobuloalveolar maturation, the latter of which is notably not normal for puberty (Randolph, 2018).

Stunted Mammary Growth with Progestogens in Animal Studies

Animal studies using progestogens including bioidentical progesterone and chlormadinone acetate (CMA), a progestin closely related to CPA, have found that high doses of these progestogens substantially stunt mammary gland development in rabbits, whereas lower doses do not do so (Lyons & McGinty, 1941; Beyer, Cruz, & Martinez-Manautou, 1970). See here for relevant literature excerpts as well as figures from these studies. Lyons & McGinty (1941) [Figure] found that estrogen alone induced ductal mammary development and estrogen plus progesterone 0.25 to 1 mg/day produced ductal development and slight to “fair” lobuloalveolar development. Conversely, estrogen plus progesterone 4 to 8 mg/day, which were 4- to 8-fold higher doses of progesterone than the most optimal dose, produced stunted mammary development with inhibited ductal development, only slight lobuloalveolar development, and, at the highest dosage, resulted in a much smaller mammary gland in terms of size than in the ≤1 mg/day groups. They concluded that high doses of progesterone are inhibitory and result in relatively poor mammary development. In the paper, doses of progesterone in international units (IU) were reported, but a citing review, Pfeiffer (1943), indicated that 1 IU progesterone is equal to 1 mg progesterone. As such, the milligram doses are listed above instead. Beyer, Cruz, & Martinez-Manautou (1970) [Figure] found that estrogen alone produced good ductal development without lobuloalveolar growth (mean mammary area = 376 mm2) and both estrogen plus CMA 0.5 mg/day and estrogen plus progesterone 2.5 mg/day produced optimal ductal and lobuloalveolar development (mean mammary area = 765 mm2 and mean mammary area = 688 mm2, respectively). Conversely, estrogen plus CMA 2.5 mg/day, a 5-fold higher dose of CMA than the optimal dose, resulted in dramatically reduced ductal development and mammary gland size albeit with significant lobuloalveolar growth (mean mammary area = 284 mm2). The authors concluded that moderate doses of progestogens stimulate mammary gland growth whereas large doses inhibit mammary gland development.

While these animal studies are suggestive that high doses of progestogens may be able to stunt breast development in humans, this is far from a certainty. There are species differences in hormone-mediated mammary development such that findings in one species, such as rabbits, may not translate to another species, like humans, or sometimes even to closely related species, like rats or guinea pigs (Bässler, 1970). As far as the present author is aware, stunted mammary development with high doses of progestogens has not been studied or reported in other animal species, for instance other rodent species or monkeys. It is also unclear that the doses employed in these animal studies are necessarily relevant to progestogen therapy in humans. This is because pregnancy levels of progesterone, which are much higher than luteal-phase progesterone levels, are necessary for substantial mammary lobuloalveolar development, and the doses of progestogens used in these studies were above that magnitude of progestogenic exposure. Hence, the doses may have corresponded to what in humans would be extremely high doses. However, such doses could still be relevant in the case of CPA used as an antiandrogen in humans, as CPA is used in this context at very high doses (see section below). The present author is unaware of any animal studies finding that physiological non-pregnancy levels of progesterone have any stunting or other adverse influence on mammary development, suggesting that only high doses of progestogens may have such effects. Finally, it seems notable that the estrogen and progestogen were initiated simultaneously in these animal studies and yet produced optimal pregnancy-like mammary development at the right doses. This suggests that early or immediate progestogen exposure might not be unfavorable in terms of breast development in humans. However, once again species differences may be present and confirmatory clinical studies are needed in humans.

Clinical Publications Cautioning Against Premature Introduction of Progestogens Due to Possibly Stunted Breast Development

A large number of clinical publications largely in the pediatric endocrinology literature have warned that premature exposure to progestogens during for instance puberty induction may result in suboptimal breast development in cisgender girls and/or transfeminine people (Zacharin, 2000; Bondy et al., 2007; Colvin, Devineni, & Ashraf, 2014; Wierckx, Gooren, & T’Sjoen, 2014; Kaiser & Ho, 2015; Bauman, Novello, & Kreitzer, 2016; Gawlik et al., 2016; Randolph, 2018; Donaldson et al., 2019; Heath & Wynne, 2019a; Heath & Wynne, 2019b; Iwamoto et al., 2019; Crowley & Pitteloud, 2020; Naseem, Lokman, & Fitzgerald, 2021; Federici et al., 2022; Lucien et al., 2022; Rothman & Iwamoto, 2022). The full relevant excerpts from these sources can be found here. In relation to these claims, and in order to mimic normal female puberty, a progestogen is not typically added to estrogen therapy during puberty induction in cisgender girls with delayed puberty until after about 2 to 3 years of treatment, by which point breast growth is generally considered complete. Additionally, progestogens are generally never added as part of puberty induction in transfeminine adolescents. Despite the preceding widespread literature statements and accepted clinical practices in the field of puberty induction however, it is important to note that the claims that premature introduction of progestogens might stunt breast development in this context are currently not based on any actual reliable clinical evidence and hence remain unsubstantiated. It is not even clear that these statements are based on anecdotal clinical experience as opposed to simple conjecture. The absence of data in this area may finally change in the future as more clinical studies of progestogens in puberty induction in cisgender girls are conducted (e.g., Rodari et al., 2023).

Rodari and colleagues studied optimization of puberty induction with estrogen therapy followed by eventual introduction of progestogen therapy in 49 cisgender girls with hypogonadism (e.g., Rodari et al., 2022; Rodari, 2022; Rodari et al., 2023). The researchers employed incrementally titrated low-dose transdermal estradiol to mimic the low and gradually increasing estradiol levels during normal puberty and added a progestogen only once menstrual bleeding began. The total duration of treatment was mean 2.65 ± 1 years, the time of first menstrual bleeding occurrence was 2.3 ± 1 years, and the time of progestogen introduction was median 2.22 years (IQR 1.56–2.87 years). Of the girls, 90% reached Tanner breast stage 4, but only 41% reached Tanner breast stage 5. Reaching the final Tanner breast stage was significantly associated with the number of estradiol dose increases (i.e., gradual estradiol dose titration) and the estradiol dose at progestogen introduction. The researchers interpreted the latter finding as progestogen exposure potentially hampering breast development. They questioned introducing progestogen therapy in the presence of incompletely developed breasts and suggested that instead of adding a progestogen upon onset of menstrual bleeding, clinicians should consider slightly reducing the estradiol dosage to delay progestogen introduction until the breasts complete maturation. While interesting, it must be noted that the findings of Rodari and colleagues are merely correlational, are open to multiple interpretations, and do not causally show that progestogens impair breast maturation.

Progestogens in the Treatment of Breast Hypertrophy

Low progesterone levels have been suggested as a possible contributing factor in the development of pubertal macromastia (breast hypertrophy) (Sun et al., 2018). A number of case reports and series of progestogens in the treatment of pubertal macromastia have been published (Sperling & Gold, 1973; Boyce, Hoffman, & Mathes, 1984; Ryan & Pernoll, 1985; Aritaki et al., 1992; Gliosci & Presutti, 1993; Sridhar & Jaya Sinha, 1995; Baker et al., 2001; Dancey et al., 2008; Bland, Howard, Romrell, 2009; Hoppe et al., 2011; Sun et al., 2018). Progestogens such as dydrogesterone, MPA, and CPA were used for this purpose in an attempt to stop or slow the growth of the breasts under the assumption that they are functionally antiestrogenic in breast tissue. Clinical success in these limited cases was mixed. Due to the self-resolving nature of pubertal macromastia (i.e., breast development stops on its own eventually) and other methodological limitations, such as very small numbers of individuals and lack of untreated control groups, it is difficult to draw any reliable conclusions about effectiveness from these reports.

More recently, a couple of studies, both by the same group of researchers, assessed the impact of different types of hormonal contraception on macromastia in adolescent cisgender females with macromastia (Nuzzi et al., 2021; Nuzzi et al., 2022). They found that use of progestin-only contraceptives were associated with significantly more breast tissue removed upon surgical breast reduction (959.9 g/m2 vs. 735.9 g/m2 [+30%]; p = 0.04) and worse clinical symptoms (e.g., breast pain—odds ratio, 4.94, p = 0.005) relative to non-users of hormonal contraception (Nuzzi et al., 2021). Conversely, use of combined oral contraceptives, which are estrogen–progestogen preparations, were associated with significantly less breast tissue removed with breast reduction (639.5 g/m2 vs. 735.9 g/m2 [−13%]; p = 0.003), though not with any differences in clinical symptoms, relative to those naive to hormonal contraception (Nuzzi et al., 2022). It should be noted that progestin-only contraceptives suppress the HPG axis and result in low estradiol levels, whereas combined oral contraceptives suppress the HPG axis and lower estradiol production but simultaneously supplement estrogen signaling by delivering exogenous estrogen. This difference may somehow be responsible for the opposite influence of estrogen–progestogen therapy versus progestogen-alone therapy on macromastia severity. While the findings of Nuzzi and colleagues are interesting, it is noteworthy that the methodology and findings of their research were criticized on various grounds in a letter to the editor concerning one of the articles (Karp, 2022).

Santen et al. (2024), in a case series of cisgender girls with juvenile gigantomastia, noted that breast growth continues for only a number of years following onset and hence there must be some form of stop signal that is activated and that prevents further breast growth. They speculated that this signal may be related to apoptosis (programmed cell death). Santen and colleagues noted that in adult cisgender women, proliferation of breast cells is increased during the follicular phase of the menstrual cycle, whereas apoptosis in breast cells is increased during the luteal phase of the cycle. They hypothesized that the apoptosis during the luteal phase may block further breast development. Since progesterone is produced during the luteal phase and may mediate said apoptosis, this would substantiate the use of progestogens in the treatment of breast hypertrophy. However, the researchers noted that no data exist on apoptosis in the breasts of girls with juvenile gigantomastia. Moreover, an important point against the authors’ hypothesis is that estrogen-induced breast growth gradually slows and ceases in people who do not have menstrual cycles and luteal phases or progestogenic exposure just as it does in normal cisgender girls. Prominent examples of such individuals include CAIS women, transfeminine people, and cisgender men with prostate cancer treated with estrogen therapy.

Poor Breast Development in 17α-Hydroxylase/17,20-Lyase Deficiency

Poor breast development with exogenous estrogen therapy has been reported in cisgender girls with 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase deficiency, and prior exposure to high progesterone levels consequent to the condition has been hypothesized to be responsible for this (Turan et al., 2009; Athanasoulia et al., 2013; Deeb et al., 2015; Çamtosun et al., 2017; Fernández-Cancio et al., 2017; Kardelen et al., 2018). However, this is only speculation, and at this time, there is no causal evidence or other substantiation that progesterone specifically is responsible for the observations of poor breast growth.

Non-Comparative Clinical Studies of Breast Development with Estrogen and Cyproterone Acetate in Transfeminine People

The possibility of suboptimal breast development with premature exposure to progestogens is of particular relevance in the case of CPA used as an antiandrogen in transfeminine people. This is because CPA is a potent progestogen in addition to antiandrogen, starts to be taken at the initiation of hormone therapy, and happens to be used in transfeminine people at doses that result in very strong to profound progestogenic exposure (Aly, 2019). In terms of progestogenic strength, CPA at a dosage of 2 mg/day is comparable to the progesterone exposure during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle (Aly, 2019; Wiki). For comparison, CPA has been used in transfeminine people at doses ranging from 10 to 100 mg/day (Aly, 2019). This would mean that CPA provides roughly 6.25 times the progestogenic impact of luteal-phase progesterone exposure at a dosage of 12.5 mg/day, 12.5 times the impact at 25 mg/day, 25 times the impact at 50 mg/day, and 50 times the impact at 100 mg/day. Moreover, this does not consider the fact that progesterone is only produced during the luteal phase, or half of the menstrual cycle, whereas CPA is taken continuously every day of the month. The preceding magnitudes of progestogenic exposure with CPA are on par with and even beyond those during pregnancy. Only recently have lower doses of CPA (e.g., ≤12.5 mg/day) started to be used in transfeminine hormone therapy.

Studies in pubertal and adolescent transfeminine people given GnRH agonists to block puberty plus estrogen therapy have reported good breast development in these individuals as assessed by subjective clinical impression or Tanner staging (de Vries et al., 2010Hannema et al., 2017). However, quality objective measures of breast development were not employed in these studies. Conversely, non-comparative studies using estrogen plus CPA in adult transfeminine people have commonly reported modest breast development, including incomplete breast development only to Tanner stage 2 to 4, small breast cup sizes, and small breast volumes (Kanhai et al., 1999; Sosa et al., 2003; Sosa et al., 2004; Wierckx et al., 2014; Fisher et al., 2016; Tack et al., 2017; de Blok et al., 2018; Reisman, Goldstein, & Safer, 2019; Meyer et al., 2020; de Blok et al., 2021). Additionally, breast sizes smaller than those in cisgender women have been reported (Asscheman & Gooren, 1992Kanhai et al., 1999). In one study, breast development with estrogen plus CPA was also poor in late-adolescent transfeminine people (Tack et al., 2017). However, in this particular study, the estrogen dose used was likely too low and resulted in inadequate estradiol levels, as noted by the authors themselves, and this is a potential confounding factor in their findings (Tack et al., 2017). In any case, breast growth with estrogen plus CPA in transfeminine people would seem to consistently be poor. In contrast to the regimen of estrogen and CPA, breast development with other hormone therapy regimens, for instance estrogen with non-progestogenic antiandrogens like spironolactone, bicalutamide, and GnRH modulators, has not been nearly as well-studied in comparison, and hence comparisons of outcomes between regimens is difficult.

In one of the highest quality studies of estrogen and CPA and breast development in adult transfeminine people, breast volume measured with 3D body scanning (Vectra XT) was approximately mean 100 mL (95% CI ~75–125 mL; range up to ~750 mL), equating to less than an A cup size on average, after 3 years of hormone therapy with estrogen and CPA in 69 transfeminine people (de Blok et al., 2021 [Figure]). In this study, breast changes over time had clearly plateaued, suggesting that breast development was either complete or was nearly so (de Blok et al., 2021 [Figure]). Although most of the transfeminine people in this study had less than an A cup breast size (71%), a minority had cup sizes ranging from an A cup (9%), B cup (16%), C cup (3%), to E cup (1%) (de Blok et al., 2021 [Figure]). For comparison, a study of normative data on breast volumes in cisgender women, using a different 3D body scanning device (Artec Eva 3D), found breast volumes of median ~515 mL and mean ~650 mL (IQR ~310–850 mL; range ~50–3,100 mL) in 378 cisgender women (Coltman, Steele, & McGhee, 2017). As such, adult transfeminine people treated with estrogen and CPA would appear to have substantially smaller breasts than cisgender women. However, it must be emphasized that the preceding data come from separate clinical studies and hence are not directly comparative. It is noteworthy in this regard that breast volumes can vary considerably between different studies even using similar measurement methods (e.g., magnetic resonance imaging) (Sindi et al., 2019 [Table]). Hence, there is a need for studies directly comparing breast volumes in transfeminine people to those in cisgender women using the same measurement method in order to comparatively evaluate breast development.

Regardless of the preceding, transfeminine people could simply have poor breast development in general without this necessarily being related to CPA or progestogenic exposure. Indeed, a more recent study in transfeminine people who underwent pubertal suppression in adolescence, presumably with GnRH agonists and then estrogen therapy, found similarly poor breast development as has been reported in adults (Boogers et al., 2022; c.f. de Blok et al., 2021). This study used breast volume via 3D body scanning to measure breast development and found a mean breast volume of 114 mL (IQR 58–203 mL), equating to less than an A cup size, after 4.2 years of hormone therapy (Boogers et al., 2022). It was notably conducted by the same group of researchers who did the earlier higher-quality study in adult transfeminine people, and hence likely used the same 3D scanning method (de Blok et al., 2021).

No directly comparative studies of breast development with CPA versus other antiandrogens in transfeminine people are currently available. Hence, it’s not fully known whether the findings are specific to CPA or also generalize to other antiandrogens that are not also strongly progestogenic. The RCT of estradiol and spironolactone versus estradiol and CPA in transfeminine people by Ada Cheung and colleagues underway in Australia may provide more insight on this issue, as spironolactone is only a weakly or clinically non-progestogenic antiandrogen (Aly, 2018b; Wiki; update: see below).

Additional Considerations for Progestogen Therapy and Breast Development in Transfeminine People

Anecdotes About Progestogens and Breast Development

Many transfeminine people who have taken progestogens as part of hormone therapy have anedotally reported that the progestogens improved their breast development. At the same time, many other transfeminine people have anecdotally reported no benefit of progestogens to breast development. It must be cautioned in general that anecdotal reports are unreliable and represent a very low form of medical evidence. This is because subjective observations and attributions are often erroneous. Perceptions can be faulty and inaccurate, especially with slowly developing physical changes, and true physical changes can be due to coincidence and unrelated confounding factors rather than due to a person’s causal attributions. A couple notable examples of potential confounding factors with regard to progestogens and breast development include: (1) continued breast development from estrogen acting on its own; and (2) temporary breast enlargement due to local fluid retention, increased blood flow, and reversible lobuloalveolar growth caused by progestogens. Such factors have the potential to mislead, and may contribute significantly to anecdotal reports of enhanced breast development with progestogens in transfeminine people. Clinical studies that are well-designed, controlled, and employ reliable objective measures, with long-term follow-up and eventual discontinuation of the progestogen to control for reversible effects, are needed to properly evaluate the effects of progestogens on breast development.

Therapeutic Limitations of Oral Progesterone

Oral progesterone produces very low progesterone levels and has only weak progestogenic effects even at high doses (Aly, 2018aWiki). These low progesterone levels are likely to be inadequate in terms of desired physiological progestogenic effects, for instance in the breasts. Oral progesterone also uniquely has potent neurosteroid actions via active metabolites like allopregnanolone, which can result in prominent side effects such as alcohol-like central nervous system inhibition as well as mood swings (Aly, 2018b; WikiWiki). These neurosteroid effects are dose-dependent and are more severe at high doses. Non-oral progesterone forms like rectal or injectable progesterone or progestins, which do not have the preceding problems, can be used instead to avoid such concerns (Aly, 2018a; Aly, 2018b).

Tolerability and Safety Considerations for Progestogens

Progestogens have a variety of tolerability issues and safety risks (Aly, 2018b). Examples of such risks variously include adverse mood changes, breast cancer, blood clots, cardiovascular complications, benign brain tumors including prolactinomas and meningiomas, and off-target actions with undesirable effects (e.g., androgenic or glucocorticoid activity), among others (Aly, 2018b). CPA at high doses also uniquely has a significant risk of serious liver toxicity (Aly, 2018b). The risks of progestogens vary depending on the specific progestogen and dosage, but all progestogens, including even bioidentical progesterone, have significant known risks. The risks of progestogens, along with lack of evidence of beneficial effects in terms of feminization, well-being, and health, are why there are concerns about and hesitations on their use in transfeminine people (Aly, 2018b). However, cisgender women naturally have progesterone in their bodies, and the absolute risks of progestogens are low (Aly, 2018b). The risks of progestogens can be minimized by use for a limited duration of time (e.g., a few years), by using the lowest dosages expected to be effective in terms of desired effects, and by selection of progestogens with more favorable pharmacological profiles (Aly, 2018a; Aly, 2018b).

Updates

Update 1: Angus et al. (2023–2024)

It was previously reported in this article that an RCT assessing breast development with estradiol plus spironolactone versus estradiol plus CPA in transfeminine people was being conducted by Ada Cheung and colleagues. This study could provide more insight into breast development with progestogens, as CPA is a very potent progestogen whereas spironolactone is not meaningfully progestogenic. Cheung and colleagues’ study, led by Lachlan Angus, has now been published in the form of the following two conference abstracts, with a journal article also currently in the process of being published:

  • Angus, L. M., Leemaqz, S., Zajac, J. D., & Cheung, A. S. (November 2023). A randomised controlled trial of spironolactone versus cyproterone in trans people commencing estradiol. AusPATH 2023 Symposium. [URL] [PDF] [Trans Health Research Blog Post]
  • Angus, L. M., Leemaqz, S. Y., Zajac, J. D., & Cheung, A. S. (November 2023). The effect of cyproterone and spironolactone on breast development in transgender women: a randomised controlled trial. ESA/SRB/ENSA 2023 ASM 26-29 November, Brisbane, 54–55 (abstract no. 132). [URL] [PDF] [Full Abstract Book] [Trans Health Research Blog Post]

The study assessed estradiol plus spironolactone 100 mg/day versus estradiol plus CPA 12.5 mg/day in 55 transfeminine people, with 27 in the spironolactone group and 28 in the CPA group. Hormone therapy duration, at least at this follow-up point in the study, was 6 months. The measures of breast development included breast–chest difference (primary) and estimated breast volume (secondary).

Breast development, measured by breast–chest difference (mean ± SD), was 8.3 ± 2.7 cm with spironolactone and 9.2 ± 3.0 cm with CPA, with the differences between groups not statistically significant (p = 0.27). In addition, breast development, measured by estimated breast volume (mean ± SD), was 158 ± 112 mL with spironolactone and 190 ± 159 mL with CPA, with the differences between groups not statistically significant (p = 0.39). There was variability between individuals in estimated breast volume, with breast volume measurements ranging from 20 to 788 mL. Besides breast growth, the researchers found that CPA also resulted in a greater increase in body fat percentage and gynoid fat compared to spironolactone. Estradiol levels were comparable between antiandrogen groups, whereas total testosterone levels were (mean ± SD) 4.29 ± 5.44 nmol/L (124 ± 157 ng/dL) with spironolactone and 1.48 ± 3.45 nmol/L (43 ± 99 ng/dL) with CPA, a difference that was statistically significant (p = 0.04).

The researchers concluded that there was no difference in breast development with spironolactone versus CPA in their study and that antiandrogen choice should be individualized based on patient and clinician preference as well as consideration of associated side effects. Moreover, they concluded that further research is needed to optimize breast development in transfeminine people.

The measure of breast volume in the study was the BreastIdea Volume Estimator, a freely available web app that employs 2D photography to provide an estimate of breast volume (Mikołajczyk, Kasielska-Trojan, & Antoszewski, 2019; Kasielska-Trojan, Mikołajczyk, & Antoszewski, 2020). This breast volume measure has been validated in both cisgender women and cisgender men (Mikołajczyk, Kasielska-Trojan, & Antoszewski, 2019; Kasielska-Trojan, Mikołajczyk, & Antoszewski, 2020). Additionally, Cheung and Angus, along with other colleagues, notably including some of the original developers of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator, validated the BreastIdea Volume Estimator in cisgender men and transfeminine people in the following 2022 conference abstract study:

  • Angus, L., Mikolajczyk, M., Cheung, A., Zajac, J., Antoszewski, B., & Kasielska-Trojan, A. (2022). Estimation of breast volume in transgender women using 2D photography: validation of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator in men and transgender women. ESA/SRB/APEG/NZSE ASM 2022, November 13-16, Christchurch, Abstracts and Programme, 127–127 (abstract no. 279). [URL] [PDF] [Full Abstract Book]

In studies by the developers of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator, they reported breast volumes measured with the tool in cisgender women. These estimated breast volumes can provide comparison to the breast-volume findings in transfeminine people by Cheung and Angus and colleagues. The developers of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator reported that breast volume (mean ± SD) in cisgender women with normal breasts (n=30) was 283 ± 144 mL and in cisgender women with macromastia or gigantomastia (n=35) was 888 ± 277 mL (Kasielska-Trojan, Zawadzki, & Antoszewski, 2022). In another study, they reported that breast volume (mean ± SD) in cisgender women was 272 ± 150 mL, with a range of 99 to 694 mL (Kasielska-Trojan, Mikołajczyk, & Antoszewski, 2020).

Although the BreastIdea Volume Estimator is an interesting and promising tool for quantifying breast development, it has notable limitations, such as its resolution and accuracy being much less than that with 3D scanners like the Artec Eva and Vectra XT (Mikołajczyk, Kasielska-Trojan, & Antoszewski, 2019). Vectra and Artec 3D scanners have been and are being employed to measure breast development with hormone therapy in other studies in transfeminine people (de Blok et al., 2021; Boogers et al., 2022; Dijkman et al., 2023a; Dijkman et al., 2023b; Lopez et al., 2023). The accuracy limitations of the BreastIdea Volume Estimator may explain why the breast volume findings with it in transfeminine people and cisgender women were different from those seen in other studies that employed more advanced 3D scanning methods. Aside from the breast volume measurement, breast–chest difference also has limitations as a measure of breast development in transfeminine people, for instance failing to identify continued breast growth that can be detected with breast volume measurement (de Blok et al., 2021).

Besides the employed measurement methods for breast development, limitations of Lachlan Angus and colleagues’ RCT of breast development with spironolactone and CPA in transfeminine people include its limited duration of follow-up of only 6 months, the fact that testosterone levels were non-equivalent between the spironolactone and CPA groups, and its limited sample size. The incompletely suppressed testosterone levels with spironolactone are notable as androgens oppose estrogen-mediated breast development and could have reduced breast development in the spironolactone group. The limited sample size of the study was responsible for the numeric difference in breast measurements between antiandrogen groups not being statistically significant. In any case, Angus and colleagues’ findings are suggestive that CPA, which is highly progestogenic, neither enhances nor stunts breast development, at least relative to non-progestogenic spironolactone for up to 6 months of hormone therapy. It seems likely that the RCT will continue to longer follow-up times and durations of hormone therapy in the future.

Update 2: Flamant, Vervalcke, & T’Sjoen (2023) and Yang et al. (2024)

The following two recent studies provide additional information on the topic of breast development with progestogen exposure—specifically with CPA—in transfeminine people:

  • Flamant, T., Vervalcke, J., & T’Sjoen, G. (November 2023). Dose Reduction of Cyproterone Acetate in Trans Women and the Effect on Patient-reported Outcomes: Results from the ENIGI Study. Endocrine Abstracts, 97 [Belgian Endocrine Society 2023], 5–5 (abstract no. 007). [URL] [PDF]
  • Yang, W., Hong, T., Chang, X., Han, M., Gao, H., Pan, B., Zhao, Z., & Liu, Y. (2024). The efficacy of and user satisfaction with different antiandrogens in Chinese transgender women. International Journal of Transgender Health, advance online publication. [DOI:10.1080/26895269.2024.2323514]

In the first study, Flamant, Vervalcke, & T’Sjoen (2023), clinical outcomes in transfeminine people at the University of Ghent, Belgium clinic were compared in 72 people taking CPA at low doses (10–12.5 mg/day) or high doses (25–50 mg/day). Testosterone suppression was equivalent between the two dose groups. Breast development satisfaction, measured with the Body Image Scale, was not significantly different with low-dose CPA versus high-dose CPA following 1 year of hormone therapy (p = 0.078). However, the p-value indicates that there was almost a statistically significant difference between groups, though it was not stated which group was numerically higher in terms of satisfaction. In any case, the researchers stated that breast development satisfaction was “non-inferior” with low-dose CPA compared to high-dose CPA, which seems suggestive that satisfaction may have been higher in the high-dose CPA group. These findings suggest that higher doses of CPA may not stunt breast development relative to doses of CPA that are lower, although still quite high in terms of progestogenic activity.

In the second study, Yang et al. (2024), clinical outcomes in transfeminine people at the Peking University Third Hospital in China with estradiol plus spironolactone (n=43) versus estradiol plus CPA (n=53) were retrospectively compared. Testosterone levels were much higher in the spironolactone group relative to the CPA group (374 ng/dL [13.0 nmol/L] vs. 20 ng/dL [0.7 nmol/L]; p < 0.001) and duration of hormone therapy was shorter in the spironolactone group than in the CPA group (median 12 months vs. 18 months). Breast development satisfaction, measured with a visual analogue scale (VAS), was median 6.0 (IQR 4.0–7.0) with spironolactone and 6.0 (IQR 4.0–7.0) with CPA, and was not statistically different. On the other hand, the CPA group outperformed the spironolactone group in terms of several other VAS-based clinical-outcome measures, including figure feminization, testicular atrophy, decreased penile erections, and in terms of a composite overall satifaction score. These findings suggest, as with the RCT by Lachlan Angus and colleagues, that spironolactone and CPA result in similar breast development in transfeminine people despite differences in testosterone levels and other clinical outcomes.

A major limitation of both Flamant, Vervalcke, & T’Sjoen (2023) and Yang et al. (2024) is the use of subjective self-report measures of breast development as opposed to objective physical measurements.

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  1. https://transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/. [March 16, 2024].
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16. https://transfemscience.org/articles/injectable-e2-meta-analysis/. [March 16, 2024].

Update 3: Herndon et al. (2023)